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Concerns about debt diplomacy on China’s expansive infrastructure megaproject — the Belt and Road — have become an increasing source of debate from Asia to Africa and the Middle East. In recent weeks, more than $30 billion in projects have been scrapped and other loans and investments are under review.

 

Public opposition is also testing the resolve of ruling authorities from Hanoi to Lusaka, the capital of Zambia, as concerns about Chinese investment build.

In late August, Malaysia’s newly elected Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad canceled more than $20 billion in Belt and Road projects for railway and pipelines, and Pakistan lopped another $2 billion off plans for a railway following a decision late last year to cancel a $14 billion dam project, citing financial concerns. Nepal canceled its dam project last month and Sierra Leone announced last week that it was dropping an airport project over debt concerns.

 

In some countries such as Vietnam, it is just the idea of Chinese investment — against the backdrop of the Belt and Road — that has led to push back.

Following public protests, Vietnam recently decided to postpone plans for several special economic zones.

 

Several Belt and Road projects have seen setbacks in countries where debt concerns have coincided with political elections and a change of power — be it Pakistan, Malaysia or the Maldives, says economist Christopher Balding.

 

“The people in these countries are very worried about the level of debt that these countries are taking on in regard to China and I think that is very important to note,” Balding said. “It’s not just anti-China people that are driving this, but that there is a lot of concern on the ground in the countries about that.”

 

China says there are no political strings attached to its investments and loans. It also argues it is providing funding in places others will not. But Beijing’s takeover of a port in Sri Lanka last year and the sheer volume of Chinese investments along the Belt and Road project have done little to ease those concerns.

 

String of ports

 

Late last year, according to the New York Times, China agreed to forgive Sri Lanka’s debt in exchange for a 99-year lease of Hambanthota Port and 15,000 acres of surrounding land.

The government of Sri Lanka denies it divested land to a Chinese company, but the deal has convinced some that China is setting up debt traps to then take over the infrastructure that Chinese state-run companies build.

 

Hambanthota is one of 42 ports where China has participated in construction and operations, with more on the horizon.

In 2021, China will take over operation of one of Israel’s largest ports in Haifa. Beijing is also being eyed as a possible candidate for the development of Chabahar port in Iran, which is near the Iran-Pakistan border.

The port proposal remains in limbo, however, due to U.S. sanctions. And that’s not the only obstacle, according to David Kelly, research director at the Beijing-based group China Policy.

“It’s in the driest and most remote part of Iran,” Kelly said. “It looks like a real loser commercially, unless it handles a lot of oil.”

Analysts say the Middle East, with its oil money and deep pockets, is less at risk for debt traps.

 

However, the port that is most likely to follow in Sri Lanka’s footsteps is Djibouti, a strategically important country on the Horn of Africa, where China recently established its first overseas military base.

According to official figures, Djibouti’s debt is more than 88 percent of the GDP and China owns $1.4 billion of that. That kind of debt overhang could lead to the same type of concessionary agreements as in Sri Lanka, analysts note.

 

Debt traps

 

A report released earlier this year by Washington, D.C.-based Center for Global Development said 23 of the 68 countries where China is investing for Belt and Road projects are at high risk of debt distress. Another eight, including Djibouti, are vulnerable to debt distress linked to future projects.

 

China argues its investments are aimed at boosting trade and commerce and giving developing countries a leg up.

 

China Policy’s Kelly says places where the debt situation is more critical are countries such as land-locked and poverty-stricken Zambia. There, concerns are causing a very public push for the government to disclose the full burden of Chinese debt.

 

“The upset and upheaval in Zambia recently, where you’ve got African civil society coming out and making this case,” Kelly said, “That is always going to be more significant where you have the local people, making a local case.”

 

BRI indigestion

 

Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, says cancellations and changes are what he calls Belt and Road indigestion.

Concerns about debt traps and debt diplomacy will not have an impact on China going forward, he says, but stops, starts and cancellations will continue.

 

Oh says China’s model of development — build infrastructure and the economy will grow — may have worked at home, but it doesn’t always fit along the Belt and Road.

 

“In many of these Belt and Road initiative countries, if you lay out the infrastructure, it doesn’t automatically mean that trade and investment will take place,” Oh said, “Some of these projects will have to be more attuned to the local requirements of particular countries.”
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The U.S. government’s budget deficit hit $779 billion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, while spending increased and tax revenues remained nearly flat, the Treasury said Monday.

It was the biggest deficit since 2012, and $113 billion more than the figure a year ago. The 2018 deficit amounted to 3.9 percent of the country’s more than $18 trillion annual economy, up from 3.5 percent last year.

The government’s deficit spending boosted the country’s long-term debt figure to more than $21 trillion, forcing the government to pay an extra $65 billion last year in interest on money the government has had to borrow to run its programs.

In all, government spending rose by $127 billion last year, while tax collections increased by $14 billion.

The Treasury said the annual deficit rose partly because corporate tax collections dropped by $76 billion after Congress approved cuts in tax rates for both businesses and individuals that were supported by President Donald Trump.

Mick Mulvaney, the government’s budget director, said the country’s “booming economy will create increased government revenues — an important step toward long-term fiscal sustainability. But this fiscal picture is a blunt warning to Congress of the dire consequences of irresponsible and unnecessary spending.”
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Zimbabwe’s government says the country is emerging from a recent economic meltdown that saw shops run out of goods and motorists spend long hours in lines at gas stations. Economists say Zimbabwe’s crisis is not over, as people have no confidence in the currency or in President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government.

For weeks now, there have been long and winding queues at most fuel stations in Zimbabwe, as the precious liquid has been in short supply. Lameck Mauriri is one of those now tired of the situation.

“We are really striving but things are tough to everyone,” said Mauriri. “I do not know how those in rural areas, how they are surviving, especially if in Harare it is like this. We are sleeping in fuel queues. There is not fuel, there is no bread, there is no drink. There is no everything. No cash, no jobs.”

For a decade, the country has been without an official currency and relied on U.S. dollars, the British pound and South African rand to conduct transactions. In the past three years, however, all three currencies have been hard to find, paralyzing the economy.

The introduction of bond notes — a currency Zimbabwe started printing two years ago to ease the situation — has not helped.

The bond notes were supposed to trade at par with the U.S. dollar; but, on the black market, a dollar now is now equal to close to three bond notes.

Prosper Chitambara, an economist of the Labor and Economic Development Research Institute of Zimbabwe says the bond notes are partly to blame for the price increases and shortages in the country.

“What is lacking in the economy, in the market is confidence. There is a distrust of the formal economic system,” said Chitambara. “The bond notes have definitely contributed a great deal to the current economic situation, a fallacy economic situation. What they have done is for example to increase money supply in the economy. And that money supply is not actually backed by significant productivity in the economy. That actually gives rise to general of inflationary pressures.”

He said the government’s recent introduction of a 2 percent tax on all electronic transactions pushed prices even higher and caused some shops to close.

Ndabaningi Nick Mangwana, Zimbabwe’s secretary in the Ministry of Information and Publicity, says the situation in the country is normal and there is no need for alarm.

“There is no shortage to oil itself, there is no challenge in terms of production of all these essential services,” said Mangwana. “That is why they are there if you go. There were a few people who panicked, closed a couple of shops, but those opened within hours. There was fake news and people panicked, but it is all under control.”

That is not exactly what seems to be the case on the ground. Some shops remain closed and prices continue rising. Long fuel lines remain the order of the day. 
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More Americans are moving to smaller cities in search of a better quality of life.

They’re leaving places like Los Angeles, Chicago and New York for mid-sized cities such as Phoenix, Las Vegas and Dallas, according to an analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

A huge draw for these second-tier cities is that the cost of housing consumes a much smaller chunk of people’s salaries. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, more than half of the people who move do so for housing-related reasons. They’re looking for a new or better home, cheaper housing, or to buy a home rather than rent.

It costs about $4,100 a month to rent a place in Manhattan. That’s almost two-thirds of New York City’s median household income of $83,500. Buying a home is even more out of reach. The average cost of a home in the area is $1.1 million.

More than half a million people left the New York boroughs of Manhattan, the Bronx, Brooklyn, and Queens over a five-year period between 2012 and 2017.

In Los Angeles, the metropolitan county with the largest outbound net domestic migration, rent costs about $2,100 a month — about 38 percent of average income. Houses cost around $630,000, almost 10 times the average annual salary of $66,000.

LA County lost about 381,000 people over a five-year period.

According to the report, the cost of living can be a lot less expensive in the Phoenix area, which welcomed more net domestic newcomers over the past five years — 221,000 people — than any other part of the country.

The average household income in Phoenix is about $63,000, rent is about $1,100 a month, and the median price of a house is $280,000 — that’s $350,000 less than in the LA metropolitan area.

In the Las Vegas area, the rent ($1,000) will only consume 21 percent of the average salary ($57,000) and purchasing a house would set a buyer back about $273,000.

 

The analysis found that housing is about two times cheaper in the top markets that attracted people than in the areas that are losing the most in terms of population.

Chicago appears to be an exception. People are leaving the Windy City to get away from high taxes. Property taxes are higher there than almost anywhere else in the United States.

It is not as though the places that are losing people are suffering due to the exodus. Eight of the 10 counties with the biggest net population losses are still growing overall because of births and immigration.
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Sears has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, buckling under its massive debt load and staggering losses. 

Sears once dominated the American retail landscape. But the big question is whether the shrunken version of itself can be viable or will it be forced to go out of business, closing the final chapter for an iconic name that originated more than a century ago.

Holdings will also close 142 unprofitable stores near the end of the year. Liquidation sales at these stores are expected to begin shortly. This is in addition to the previously announced closure of 46 unprofitable stores that is expected to be completed by November 2018.

The company, which started out as a mail order catalog in the 1880s, has been on a slow march toward extinction as it lagged far behind its peers and has incurred massive losses over the years. The operator of Sears and Kmart stores joins a growing list of retailers that have filed for bankruptcy or liquidated in the last few years amid a fiercely competitive climate. Some like Payless ShoeSource have had success emerging from reorganization in bankruptcy court but plenty of others haven’t, like Toys R Us and Bon-Ton Stores Inc. Both retailers were forced to shutter their operations this year soon after a Chapter 11 filing. 

“This is a company that in the 1950s stood like a colossus over the American retail landscape,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, a retail consultancy. “Hopefully, a smaller new Sears will be healthier.”

Given its sheer size, Sears’ bankruptcy filing will have wide ripple effects on everything from already ailing landlords to its tens of thousands of workers. 

Edward S. Lampert has stepped down from his role as CEO of the company, effective immediately. He will remain chairman of the board. The company’s board has created an Office of the CEO, which will be responsible for managing day-to-day operations during this process.

The filing, which is happening ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season, comes after rescue efforts engineered by Lampert have kept it outside of bankruptcy court – until now. 

Lampert, the largest shareholder, has been loaning out his own money for years and has put together deals to prop up the company, which in turn has benefited his own ESL hedge fund.

Last year, Sears sold its famous Craftsman brand to Stanley Black & Decker Inc., following its earlier moves to spin off pieces of its Sears Hometown and Outlet division and Lands’ End.

In recent weeks, Lampert has been pushing for a debt restructuring and offering to buy some of Sears’ key assets like Kenmore through his hedge fund as a $134 million debt repayment comes due on Monday. Lampert personally owns 31 percent of the company’s shares. His hedge fund has an 18.5 percent stake, according to FactSet.

“It is all well and good to undertake financial engineering, but the company is in the business of retailing and without a clear retail plan, the firm simply has no reason to exist,” said Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, in a recent analyst note.

Sears’ stock has fallen from about $6 over the past year to below the minimum $1 level that Nasdaq stocks are required to trade in order to remain on the stock index. In April 2007, shares were trading at around $141. The company, which once had 350,000 workers, has seen its workforce shrink to fewer than 90,000 people as of earlier this year.

The company has racked up $6.26 billion in losses, excluding one-time events, since its last annual profit in 2010, according to Ken Perkins, who heads the research firm Retail Metrics LLC. It’s had 11 years of straight annual drops in revenue. In its last fiscal year, it generated $16.7 billion in sales, down from more than $50 billion in 2008.

As of May, it had fewer than 900 stores, down from about 1,000 at the end of last year. The number of stores peaked in 2012 at 4,000, including its Sears Canada division that was later spun off.

In a March 2017 government filing, Sears said there was “substantial doubt” it would be able to keep its doors open – but insisted its turnaround efforts would mitigate that risk. 

But its losses continued into this year. In the fiscal second quarter ended Aug. 4, net losses in the quarter swelled to $508 million, or $4.68 per share, compared with a loss of $250 million, or $2.33 cents per share in the same quarter a year ago. 

Such financial woes contrast with the promise that Lampert made when he combined Sears and Kmart in 2005, two years after he helped bring Kmart out of bankruptcy. Back then, it operated 2,200 stores in total.

Lampert pledged to return Sears to greatness by leveraging its best-known brands and its vast holdings of land, and more recently planned to entice customers with a loyalty program. But it struggled to get more people through the doors or to shop online. 

Jennifer Roberts, 36 of Dayton, Ohio, had been a long-time fan of Sears and has fond memories of shopping there for clothes as a child. But in recent years, she’s been disappointed by the lack of customer service and outdated stores. 

“My mom had always bought her appliances from Sears. That’s where my dad got his tools,” she said. “But they don’t care about their customers anymore.” 

She said a refrigerator her mother bought at Sears broke after two years and it still hasn’t been fixed for almost a month with no help from the retailer. 

“If they don’t value a customer, then they don’t need my money,” said Roberts, who voiced her complaints on Sears’ Facebook page. 

Sales at the company’s established locations tumbled nearly 4 percent during its fiscal second quarter. Still, that was an improvement from the same period a year ago when it fell 11.5 percent. Total revenue dropped 30 percent in the most recent quarter, hurt by continued store closings. 

The bleak figures are an outlier to chains like Walmart, Target, Best Buy and Macy’s, which have been enjoying stronger sales as they benefit from a robust economy and efforts to make the shopping experience more inviting by investing heavily on remodeling and de-cluttering their stores.

For decades, Sears was king of the American shopping landscape. Sears, Roebuck and Co.’s iconic catalog featured items from bicycles to sewing machines to houses, and could generate excitement throughout a household when it arrived. The company began opening retail locations in 1925 and expanded swiftly in suburban malls from the 1950s to 1970s. But the onset of discounters like Walmart created challenges for Sears that have only grown. Sears faced even more competition from online sellers and appliance retailers like Lowe’s and Home Depot. Its stores became an albatross.

Store shelves have been left bare as many vendors have demanded more stringent payment terms, says Mark Cohen, a professor of retailing at Columbia University and a former Sears executive.

Meanwhile, Sears workers are nervous about what kind of severance they’ll receive if their store closes.

John Germann, 46, works full-time and makes $14 per hour as the lead worker unloading merchandise from trucks at the Chicago Ridge, Illinois store, which has been drastically reducing its staff since he started nine years ago. Germann now has only 11 people on his team, compared with about 30 a few years ago. 

“We’re doing the job of two to three people. It’s not safe,” he said. “We’re lifting treadmills and refrigerators.”

Real estate experts believe that Sears’ move to further shutter stores as part of its restructuring would be a mixed blessing for landlords. For the healthy malls, landlords would welcome a Sears departure, allowing them to cut up the space and fill it with several smaller successful stores that combined would bring in higher revenue. 

But for the struggling malls, Cohen says it will be a “death knell” since it will be harder for them to bring in new tenants. Many of these malls already have had difficulty filling in the void from J.C. Penney and Macy’s closures. 

Saunders of GlobalData Retail spared no criticism of Sears in his analyst note, listing failing after failing of the company.

“The problem in Sears case is that it is a poor retailer,” he wrote. “Put bluntly, it has failed on every facet of retailing from assortment to service to merchandise to basic shop keeping standards. Under benign conditions, this would be problematic enough but in today’s hyper-competitive retail environment it is a recipe for failure on a grand scale.” 
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An increase in world oil prices is helping Vietnam earn money that will quicken its already fast economic growth and may help the country build new infrastructure. The only red light: higher fuel prices among Vietnam’s consumers.

Vietnam, though not a major oil-producing nation like much of the Middle East, has counted energy-related commodities as its fifth highest source of exports. The industry is largely state-owned, including energy supplier PetroVietnam, with $3.1 billion in annual sales. Much of Vietnam’s energy comes from under the seas off its east and south coasts.

If crude oil prices hold at an average $65 per barrel this year, above last year’s average of US$60, economic growth will exceed the 6.7 percent target set by the legislature, the Communist Party of Vietnam’s website said last week. 

“Vietnam has a huge level of natural gas reserves and a level of oil, so if the prices go up that would definitely be a boon for Vietnam,” said Ralf Matthaes, founder of the Infocus Mekong Research consultancy in Ho Chi Minh City.

“It would be another benefit for Vietnam, that look, Vietnam has more exports. It’s not just about coffee and rice,” he said.

World oil price hikes

The Vietnamese Ministry of Finance forecasts that total state revenue from crude oil exports will reach $3.13 billion in the first nine months of 2018, up 42.5% over the same period last year. The total for January through September would beat a full-year target.

The revenue increases for Vietnam reflect higher income from oil sales worldwide. World prices should reach $73 per barrel within the year and $74 next year, per estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Prices have gone up, the administration says, because of supply issues, including reports that U.S. sanctions on Iran will cut purchases.

“For the government and their state-owned enterprise PetroVietnam, it’s definitely good news,” said Frederick Burke, partner with the law firm Baker McKenzie in Ho Chi Minh City. “They’ve been really strained by that sort of weakness in their budget portfolio.”

Vietnam exports oil largely to Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Those sales contribute to a $224 billion economy that has grown by around 6 percent every year since 2012. Much of the growth comes from foreign-invested factories that make items such as auto parts and consumer electronics.

Vietnam will export around 11.23 million tons of crude oil this year, the Communist Party says. 

What to do with the money

Oil revenue would give the government more funding for public infrastructure, Matthaes said. Vietnamese officials are building transport infrastructure so manufacturers can better move exports from factory floors to overseas markets. Ease of cargo shipping will help keep producers in Vietnam, which competes with China and much of Southeast Asia to win factory investment.

The government is spending now on expressways and urban mass transit to handle what the domestic news website VnExpress International calls “the country’s logistics shortcomings.” 

State-owned enterprises might eventually build more oil refineries, as well, Burke suggested. Despite export revenues, Vietnam is a net importer of refined oil products because onshore refineries cannot meet the demands of a 95 million population along with industry.

Vietnam imports about 70 percent of its fuel for actual usage, mostly from China, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. 

Officials want to build more refineries to ensure Vietnam always has a steady fuel supply, Burke said. But he said a global “overcapacity” of refineries has cast doubt on ideas about opening more refineries in the country.

Inflation threat

Reliance on imports will raise the price of what common Vietnamese people pay for fuel, a threat to inflation, analysts and domestic media predict. Gasoline prices will rise 5 to 15 percent and may increase inflation by up to 0.64 percent over the year, the Communist Party says.

Officials in Hanoi set an inflation target of 4 percent for this year, but as of June it had already gone higher. Low prices help foreign investors as well as the millions of common motor scooter riders who still live in poverty.

Common consumers “feel the heat,” said Trung Nguyen, director of the Center for International Studies at Ho Chi Minh University of Social Sciences and Humanities. “They are used to the oil price rise, so I think that they can still withstand it, but I don’t know how far they can.”
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World stocks are climbing Friday after two days of sharp losses. Major U.S. stock indexes are up more than 1 percent, but they’re still on track for their biggest one-week loss since late March.

Technology and internet companies were some of the hardest hit over the last two days and they led the market higher Friday. Apple climbed 2.7 percent to $220.18. Consumer-focused companies also rallied, as Amazon jumped 3.8 percent to $1,783.96 and Netflix surged 4.7 percent to $336.30.

The S&P 500 index climbed 37 points, or 1.4 percent, to 2,766 at 9:45 a.m. Eastern time. The benchmark index tumbled 5.3 percent over the past two days and as of Thursday it had fallen for six consecutive days. The S&P is down 5.6 percent from its latest record high, set Sept. 20.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 305 points, or 1.2 percent, to 25,358. The Nasdaq composite surged 138 points, or 1.9 percent, to 7,467. The Russell 2000 index gained 17 points, or 1.2 percent, to 1,563. That index, which is made up of smaller and more U.S.-focused companies, has fallen into a 10 percent “correction” since reaching a record high at the end of August.

On the New York Stock Exchange, winners outnumbered losers eight to one.

Stocks in Europe and Asia also recovered some of their recent losses. The French CAC 40 and the DAX in Germany both rose 0.8 percent while Britain’s FTSE 100 was 0.7 percent higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gained 0.5 percent after sinking early in the day and following a nearly 4 percent loss on Thursday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2.1 percent and the Kospi in South Korea rose 1.5 percent.

The market’s recent losing streak started when strong economic data and positive comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell helped set off a wave of selling in the bond market. Investors were betting that the U.S. economy would keep growing at a healthy pace. The sales pushed bond prices lower and yields higher. That drove interest rates sharply higher, which worried investors who felt that a big increase in interest rates could eventually stifle economic growth. Higher yields also make bonds more appealing to investors versus stocks.

The worst losses went to stocks that have led the market in recent years, including technology companies, as well as companies that do better when economic growth speeds up, like industrial firms.

Banks rose as they began to report their third-quarter results. Citigroup jumped 2.4 percent to $70.04. Last year’s corporate tax cut and rising interest rates have helped banks make more money.

Bond prices turned lower as the stock market stabilized. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.16 percent from 3.13 percent.

High-dividend stocks lagged the rest of the market, and utilities and household goods makers were little changed. Those stocks held up a bit better than the rest of the market over the last six days. Investors view them as relatively safe, steady assets that look better when growth is uncertain and the rest of the market is in turmoil.

U.S. crude oil added 0.6 percent to $71.43 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, the international standard, was up 0.6 percent to $80.77 a barrel in London.

The dollar rose to 112.17 yen from 111.94 yen. The euro fell to $1.1548 from $1.1594.
…

Just in case any of the global central bankers and finance ministers gathered in Indonesia missed the message delivered repeatedly this week, the host nation said it again Friday: Everyone stands to lose if trade wars are allowed to escalate.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo didn’t mention the United States or China, the world’s two largest economies, but it was clear who he was talking about in an address to the plenary session of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings on the island of Bali.

 

WATCH: IMF Urges US and China to De-escalate Tariff Wars

“Lately it feels like the relations among the major economies are becoming more and more like Game of Thrones,” Widodo said in a speech peppered with references to the HBO series about dynasties and kingdoms battling for power.

“Are we so busy fighting with each other and competing against each other that we fail to notice the things which are increasingly threatening, all of us alike, rich and poor, large and small,” he said.

Poorer and populous emerging market countries like his are among the most vulnerable to the fallout from the ongoing U.S.-Sino tariff war, and rising U.S. interest rates that are drawing investors away and driving down currencies.

“All these troubles in the world economy, are enough to make us feel like saying: ‘Winter is coming,'” Widodo said, using a phrase that characters in the popular fantasy series constantly repeat to refer to spectral dangers that could destroy them all.

With rivalry growing in the world economy, Widodo said “the situation could be more critical compared to the global financial crisis 10 years ago.”

The market ructions have now cascaded through to developed markets with Wall Street extending a slide into a sixth session on Thursday amid the trade war fears.

The United States and China have slapped tit-for-tat tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of each other’s goods over the past few months.

The tariffs stem from the Trump administration’s demands that China make sweeping changes to its intellectual property practices, rein in high-technology industrial subsidies, open its markets to more foreign competition and take steps to cut a politically sensitive U.S. goods trade surplus.

Rubbing salt in U.S. wounds, China reported on Friday an unexpected acceleration in export growth in September and a record $34.13 billion trade surplus with the United States.

Mnuchin: China trade talks must include yuan

In an interview with Reuters, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that he told China’s central bank chief that currency issues need to be part of any further U.S.-China trade talks and expressed his concerns about the yuan’s recent weakness.

Mnuchin also said that China needs to identify concrete “action items” to rebalance the two countries’ trade relationship before talks to resolve their disputes can resume.

The U.S. Treasury chief and People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang extensively discussed currency issues on the sidelines of the meetings in Bali.

Mnuchin’s comments on China’s currency come ahead of next week’s scheduled release of a hotly anticipated Treasury report on currency manipulation, the first since a significant weakening of yuan began this spring.

Mnuchin said re-launching trade talks would require China to commit to taking action on structural reforms to its economy.

If the relationship could be rebalanced, he said the U.S.-China total annual trade relationship could grow to $1 trillion from $650 billion currently, with $500 billion of exports from each country.

G-20 members and trade issues

Meanwhile, the chairman of a meeting of finance leaders from the Group of 20 leading industrialized and emerging economies admitted that the trade tensions within the group could only be solved by the countries directly involved.

“The G-20 can play a role in providing the platform for discussions. But the differences that still persist should be resolved by the members that are directly involved in the tensions,” Nicolas Dujovne, Argentina’s Treasury Minister, told a news conference after chairing the G-20 meeting in Bali.

More than 19,000 delegates and other guests, including ministers, central bank heads and some leaders, were attending the IMF-World Bank meetings, and Widodo asked them to “cushion the blows from trade wars, technical disruption and market turmoil.”

“I hope you will each do your part to nudge our various leaders in the right direction,” Widodo said, adding that “confrontation and collision impose a tragic price.”

The IMF’s twice-yearly report on the Asia Pacific region, released Thursday, warned that the market rout seen in emerging economies could worsen if the Federal Reserve and other major central banks tightened monetary policy more quickly than expected.

At Friday’s plenary, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde estimated that the escalation of current trade tensions could reduce global GDP by almost one percent over the next two years.

IMF forecasts of global economic growth for both 2018 and 2019 were cut to 3.7 percent, from 3.9 percent in its July forecast.

“Clearly, we need to de-escalate these disputes,” Lagarde told the plenary session.
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Parties to a new global treaty to combat the illicit sale of tobacco products have taken the first steps toward cracking down on this multi-billion dollar trade.  At a three-day meeting at the headquarters of the World Health Organization in Geneva they have outlined a plan to shut down the lucrative black market trade in tobacco.

A global tobacco treaty (Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products) entered into force on September 25, with 48 countries joining the new protocol, which is part of the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC).  Two-thirds of the parties have enacted or strengthened national legislation aimed at tackling illicit trade in tobacco products.

Parties attending the meeting have set up a working group to create a monitoring system to track and trace the movement of tobacco products. They hope this global information sharing system will be up and running by 2023.  

Head of the FCTC Secretariat, Vera da Costa e Silva, says illicit trade accounts for one in 10 cigarettes consumed.  She says these cigarettes are low-priced and more affordable for young people and vulnerable populations.  She says this results in increased consumption of the toxic product by these groups.

She told VOA the black market in tobacco thrives in both rich and poor countries, but it is a much bigger problem in developing countries.

“In the streets of developing countries, you can see all over the world sales of illicit trade of tobacco products.  They are openly in their markets…. When it comes to the distribution, this is linked to street sales, to bootlegging as well through borders and even to sales to and by minors.  That is a real problem of illicit trade in tobacco products,” she said.

Da Costa e Silva said this flourishing illegal trade undermines tobacco control policies and public health.  She said it also fuels organized crime and increases tobacco profits through tax evasion, resulting in substantial losses in governments’ revenues.   

She said studies show governments lose $31 billion in taxes annually from the illegal trafficking in tobacco products.  

The World Health Organization reports seven million people die prematurely every year from tobacco-related causes.

 
…

One of Donald Trump’s top economic advisers says the president is not trying to improperly influence the U.S. central bank.

The director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, spoke to the television network CNBC a day after Trump said the U.S. Federal Reserve is “loco” (crazy) for raising interest rates. On Thursday, Trump continued his attacks on the central bank, calling the Fed “out of control,” but denied he has plans to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell. 

Kudlow said, “We all know the Fed is independent. The president is not dictating policy to the Fed.”  

The Federal Reserve slashed the benchmark interest rate nearly to zero in an emergency, temporary effort to boost economic growth hurt by a severe recession 10 years ago. Since then, the economy has stopped shrinking and resumed growth, unemployment has fallen to historic lows, and wages and inflation have begun to rise modestly.  

Low interest rates boost growth by making it cheaper for businesses and families to borrow money to build factories or buy homes.  Economists warn that keeping interest rates too low for too long could spark strong inflation that pushes up prices and wages so sharply that they damage the economy.  

To fend off inflation, the Fed has been slowly raising rates a quarter of a percentage point at a time. They are expected to continue this effort to gradually return rates to their historic averages.

A common conflict grows out of the fact that incumbent elected politicians get the blame if the economy is not growing strongly. That gives presidents and others a political incentive to keep interest rates low, regardless of the consequences.  

That is why central banks in the United States and elsewhere are often set up to insulate them from political pressure so they can make decisions on their economic merit rather than potential popularity.

When the independence of a central bank is seriously questioned, markets and currencies can fall because investors lose confidence in the economic management of a nation.

U.S. stock markets fell sharply Wednesday amid worries about rising interest rates, growing tensions over trade and other issues.  Some Asian and European markets took losses Thursday.  In Thursday’s U.S. trading, some key markets stabilized, and one recovered some ground. 
…

The world’s longest commercial flight, a 19-hour journey from Singapore to New York, took off Thursday from Changi Airport.

The Singapore Airlines Airbus A350-900ULR will touch down at Newark Liberty International Airport early Friday after traveling 15,350 kilometers.

Singapore Airlines previously flew the same route, but abandoned it in 2013 due to high oil prices and the gas-guzzling four-engine aircraft used. 

Singapore Airlines is offering no coach seats, instead stocking the plane with 67 business-class spots and 94 premium economy. Shortly before takeoff, premium economy tickets were going for more than $2,100.

The Airbus A350-900ULR (“Ultra Long Range”) is a new two-engine plane with far greater range and fuel capacity than other commercial airliners. In addition, it has several features that aid passenger comfort during the trip, like hospital-grade air filters, improved pressurization and humidity, and customizable lighting that eases the transition between time zones. 

Singapore Airlines says it plans to add several flights from Singapore to Los Angeles in November, bringing the total number of weekly flights to the United States to 53.
…

Mat Beren and his friends used to drive by the vast greenhouses of southern British Columbia and joke about how much weed they could grow there.

Years later, it’s no joke. The tomato and pepper plants that once filled some of those greenhouses have been replaced with a new cash crop: marijuana. Beren and other formerly illicit growers are helping cultivate it. The buyers no longer are unlawful dealers or dubious medical dispensaries; it’s the Canadian government.

On Oct. 17, Canada becomes the second and largest country with a legal national marijuana marketplace. Uruguay launched legal sales last year, after several years of planning.

It’s a profound social shift promised by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and fueled by a desire to bring the black market into a regulated, taxed system after nearly a century of prohibition.

It also stands in contrast to the United States, where the federal government outlaws marijuana while most states allow medical or recreational use for people 21 and older. Canada’s national approach has allowed for unfettered industry banking, inter-province shipments of cannabis, online ordering, postal delivery and billions of dollars in investment; national prohibition in the U.S. has stifled greater industry expansion there.

Hannah Hetzer, who tracks international marijuana policy for the New York-based Drug Policy Alliance, called Canada’s move “extremely significant,” given that about 25 countries have already legalized the medical use of marijuana or decriminalized possession of small amounts of pot. A few, including Mexico, have expressed an interest in regulating recreational use.

“It’s going to change the global debate on drug policy,” she said. “There’s no other country immediately considering legalizing the nonmedical use of cannabis, but I think Canada will provide almost the permission for other countries to move forward.”

At least 109 legal pot shops are expected to open across the nation of 37 million people next Wednesday, with many more to come, according to an Associated Press survey of the provinces. For now, they’ll offer dried flower, capsules, tinctures and seeds, with sales of marijuana-infused foods and concentrates expected to begin next year.

Overseeing distribution

The provinces are tasked with overseeing marijuana distribution. For some, including British Columbia and Alberta, that means buying cannabis from licensed producers, storing it in warehouses and then shipping it to retail shops and online customers. Others, like Newfoundland, are having growers ship directly to stores or through the mail.

Federal taxes will total $1 per gram or 10 percent, whichever is more. The feds will keep one-fourth of that and return the rest to the provinces, which can add their own markups. Consumers also will pay local sales taxes.

Some provinces have chosen to operate their own stores, like state-run liquor stores in the U.S., while others have OK’d private outlets. Most are letting residents grow up to four plants at home.

Canada’s most populous province, Ontario, won’t have any stores open until next April, after the new conservative government scrapped a plan for state-owned stores in favor of privately run shops. Until then, the only legal option for Ontario residents will be mail delivery — a prospect that didn’t sit well with longtime pot fan Ryan Bose, 48, a Lyft driver.

“Potheads are notoriously very impatient. When they want their weed, they want their weed,” he said after buying a half-ounce at an illicit medical marijuana dispensary in Toronto. “Waiting one or two three days for it by mail, I’m not sure how many will want to do that.”

British Columbia, home of the “B.C. Bud” long cherished by American pot connoisseurs, has had a prevalent marijuana culture since the 1970s, after U.S. draft-dodgers from the Vietnam War settled on Vancouver Island and in the province’s southeastern mountains. But a change in government last year slowed cannabis distribution plans there, too, and it will have just one store ready next Wednesday: a state-run shop in Kamloops, a few hours’ drive northeast of Vancouver. By contrast, Alberta expects to open 17 next week and 250 within a year.

Unlawful operations

No immediate crackdown is expected for the dozens of illicit-but-tolerated medical marijuana dispensaries operating in British Columbia, though officials eventually plan to close any without a license. Many are expected to apply for private retail licenses, and some have sued, saying they have a right to remain open.

British Columbia’s ministry of public safety is forming a team of 44 inspectors to root out unlawful operations, seize product and issue fines. They’ll have responsibility for a province of 4.7 million people and an area twice as large as California, where the black market still dwarfs the legal market that arrived in January.

Chris Clay, a longtime Canadian medical marijuana activist, runs Warmland Centre dispensary in an old shopping mall in Mill Bay, on Vancouver Island. He is closing the store Monday until he gets a license; he feared continuing to operate post-legalization would jeopardize his chances. Some of his eight staff members will likely have to file for unemployment benefits in the meantime.

“That will be frustrating, but overall I’m thrilled,” Clay said. “I’ve been waiting decades for this.”

Licensed growers

The federal government has licensed 120 growers, some of them enormous. Canopy Growth, which recently received an investment of $4 billion from Constellation Brands, whose holdings include Corona beer, Robert Mondavi wines and Black Velvet whiskey, is approved for 5.6 million square feet (520,000 square meters) of production space across Canada. Its two biggest greenhouses are near the U.S. border in British Columbia.

Beren, a 23-year cannabis grower, is a Canopy consultant.

“We used to joke around all the time when we’d go to Vancouver and drive by the big greenhouses on the highway,” he said. “Like, ‘Oh man, someday. It’d be so awesome if we could grow cannabis in one of these greenhouses.’ We drive by now, and we’re like, ‘Oh, we’re here.”‘

Next to Canopy’s greenhouse in Delta is another huge facility, Pure Sunfarms, a joint venture between a longtime tomato grower, Village Farms International, and a licensed medical marijuana producer, Emerald Health Therapeutics. Workers pulled out the remaining tomato plants last winter and got to work renovating the greenhouse as a marijuana farm, installing equipment that includes lights and accordion-shaped charcoal vents to control the plant’s odor. By 2020, the venture expects to move more than 165,000 pounds (75,000 kg) of bud per year.

Some longtime illegal growers who operate on a much smaller scale worry they won’t get licensed or will get steamrolled by much larger producers. Provinces can issue “micro-producer” licenses. But in British Columbia, where small-time pot growers helped sustain rural economies as the mining and forestry industries cratered, the application period hasn’t opened yet.

Sarah Campbell of the Craft Cannabis Association of BC said many small operators envision a day when they can host visitors who can tour their operations and sample the product, as wineries do.

Officials say they intend to accommodate craft growers but first need to ensure there is enough cannabis to meet demand when legalization arrives. Hiccups are inevitable, they say, and tweaks will be needed.

“Leaving it to each province to decide what’s best for their communities and their citizens is something that’s good,” said Gene Makowsky, the Saskatchewan minister who oversees the province’s Liquor and Gaming Authority. “We’ll be able to see if each law is successful or where we can do better in certain areas.”

British Columbia safety minister Mike Farnworth said he learned two primary lessons by visiting Oregon and Washington, U.S. states with recreational marijuana. One was not to look at the industry as an immediate cash cow, as it will take time to displace the black market. The other was to start with relatively strict regulations and then loosen them as needed, because it’s much harder to tighten them after the fact.

Legalization will be a process more than a date, Farnworth said.

“Oct. 17th is actually not going to look much different than it does today,” he said.
…

U.S. stocks posted their worst loss since February on Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average finishing the day down more than 800 points.

The losses were widespread as bond yields remained high after steep increases last week. Companies that have been the biggest winners on the market the last few years, including technology companies and retailers, suffered steep declines.

The Dow gave up nearly 828 points, or 3.15 percent, to 25,600. The Nasdaq composite, which has a high concentration of technology stocks, tumbled 316 points, or 4.1 percent, to 7,422.

The S&P 500 index sank 95 points, or 3.3 percent, to 2,786, its fifth straight drop. That hasn’t happened since right before the 2016 presidential election. Every one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished down for the day.

Microsoft dropped 5.4 percent to $106.16. Amazon skidded 6.2 percent to $1,755.25. Industrial and internet companies also fell hard. Boeing lost 4.7 percent to $367.47 and Alphabet, Google’s parent company, gave up 5 percent to $1,081.22.

After a long stretch of relative calm, the stock market has suffered sharp losses over the last week as bond yields surged.

Squeezed margins

Gina Martin Adams, the chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, said investors are concerned about the big increase in yields, which makes it more expensive to borrow money. She said they also fear that company profit margins will be squeezed by rising costs, including the price of oil.

Paint and coatings maker PPG gave a weak third-quarter forecast Monday, while earlier, Pepsi and Conagra’s quarterly reports reflected increased expenses.

“Both companies highlighted rising costs, not only input costs but increasing operating expenses [and] marketing expenses,” she said.

Insurance companies dropped as Hurricane Michael continued to gather strength and came ashore in Florida bringing winds of up to 155 mph. Berkshire Hathaway dipped 4.8 percent to $213.10 and reinsurer Everest Re slid 5.1 percent to $217.73.

Luxury retailers tumbled. Tiffany plunged 10.2 percent to $110.38 and Ralph Lauren fell 8.4 percent to $116.96.

The biggest driver for the market over the last week has been interest rates, which began spurting higher following several encouraging reports on the economy. Higher rates can slow economic growth, erode corporate profits and make investors less willing to pay high prices for stocks. 

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.22 percent from 3.20 percent late Tuesday after earlier touching 3.24 percent. It was at just 3.05 percent early last week.

Technology and internet-based companies are known for their high profit margins, and many have reported explosive growth in recent years, with corresponding gains in their stock prices. Adams, of Bloomberg Intelligence, said investors have concerns about their future profitability, too.

That’s helped make technology stocks more volatile in the last few months.

“As stocks go up, tech goes up more than the stock market. As stocks go down, tech goes down more than the stock market,” she said.
…

The Treasury Department has issued new rules on foreign investments into American companies that will give the government more power to block foreign transactions on national security grounds.

The rules represent the latest escalation in an intensifying economic conflict between the United States and China. It will implement a program for tougher reviews of foreign acquisitions that Congress approved this summer.

The new regulations will require foreign investors to alert a Treasury-led interagency committee to all deals that would give the foreign investors access to critical technology covering 27 industries, including semiconductors, telecommunications and defense.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says the new rules will “address specific risks to U.S. critical technology.”
…

Dark, dirty and slow, Zimbabwe’s trains, like much else in the impoverished southern African country, have seen better days.

Once the preferred mode of transport for most Zimbabweans, the state-run rail service mirrors the decline in the country’s economic fortunes during the last two decades under the leadership of former President Robert Mugabe.

Gilbert Mthinzima Ndlovu, a veteran of Zimbabwe’s 1970s independence war and a security guard at the National Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ) for 35 years, yearns for the old days when trains were full and arrived on time.

“Times are different now as we have few passengers,” the off-duty Ndlovu told Reuters as he rested in a badly lit first class cabin during the journey from the capital Harare to his home in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city.

Now the 10-hour journey can take 16 hours, he said.

Not surprising, then, that many Zimbabweans prefer to make the 440 km (273 mile) journey by bus or public taxi in around five hours than have to endure a cold overnight train ride – even if at $10 the train ride costs only half as much.

The train carriages often lack lighting and water, and the toilets are filthy. The signalling and information systems are often vandalized and some tracks overgrown with grass and weeds because they have not been used in years.

NRZ is now trying to improve its fortunes.

Last year South African logistics group Transnet won a $400 million joint bid to recapitalize NRZ and fix some of the problems, including acquiring and refurbishing carriages.

But for now passengers have to make do with a broken train service.

“Today you can’t even buy food from the train and all the coaches are filthy, with no water and the lights are not working,” said one passenger who declined to give his name.
…

Last month, Patrick Ho, a former Hong Kong official fighting foreign bribery charges in New York, thought he had finally received a break.

In a dramatic move in the high-profile bribery case, prosecutors on Sept. 14 dropped all criminal charges against Cheikh Gadio, a former Senegalese foreign minister they had accused of helping Ho bribe African officials.

Arguing that the government’s move undermined its case against Ho, Ho’s lawyers urged a federal judge in New York to release their client from a federal jail. 

But the presiding judge, Loretta Preska, wasn’t buying it. She dismissed the motion, Ho’s fifth unsuccessful request for bail. And prosecutors said Gadio has agreed to cooperate, expressing confidence that his testimony against Ho will strengthen their case. 

“(Far) from weakening the case, Gadio’s testimony will provide substantial evidence of the defendant’s guilt,” prosecutors wrote in a court filing. 

Left largely unnoticed in the U.S., the corruption case against Ho has sent shockwaves across Asia, putting the spotlight on an open secret in global business circles — rampant bribery of foreign governments by Chinese companies seeking business deals around the world.    

China has largely ignored the problem, according to China experts.  While the government of President Xi Jinping has launched a much-publicized domestic anticorruption campaign, experts say Chinese authorities have yet to bring a single foreign bribery case against a Chinese company or executive.  

Ho has denied any wrongdoing.  

Ho, 69, and Gadio, 62 were arrested in New York last November and charged as part of a conspiracy to bribe African officials on behalf of CEFC China Energy, a Shanghai-based energy conglomerate with ties to the country’s military. 

At the time, Ho headed China Energy Fund Committee, a Virginia and Hong Kong-based NGO funded by CEFC China Energy, while Gadio ran a business consulting firm when he was a member of Senegal’s parliament. 

In one of two bribery schemes, prosecutors alleged that Ho and Gadio met on the sidelines of the United Nations in late 2014 to engage in a conspiracy to pay a $2 million cash bribe to Idriss Deby, the president of Chad.The payment was offered in exchange for helping CEFC Energy’s entry into Chad’s rich energy sector, according to prosecutors. 

Gadio allegedly introduced Ho to Deby and served as a middleman during discussions between the Chinese executives and Chadian officials. The complaint did not make clear whether any payment was made to Deby, but it did say that Gadio received $400,000 for his services. 

In the second scheme, Ho allegedly paid a bribe of $500,000 to Sam Kutesa, the Ugandan foreign minister, in 2016 in exchange for Kutesa’s help in helping CEFC Energy gain business contracts in Uganda’s financial and energy sectors, according to the criminal complaint.The bribe was paid after Kutesa finished his one-year term as president of the U.N. General Assembly and returned to Uganda. 

While the charges against Gadio were never presented to a grand jury, Ho was indicted on multiple counts of foreign bribery and money laundering. 

Ho pleaded not guilty.  

Timothy Belevetz, a former federal prosecutor now a partner at the Holland & Knight law firm, said bribery cases under the foreign bribery law known as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act rarely go to trial.

“This is an opportunity for law to be made,” Belevetz said. 

FCPA was passed in 1977 in response to disclosures that U.S. companies were bribing foreign officials to secure business deals. The law has since been amended, giving the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission broad jurisdiction over foreign companies that have subsidiaries in the United States or trade on U.S. stock exchanges. 

In recent years, the Justice Department, working with international law enforcement agencies, has brought a growing number of corruption cases against foreign companies and executives paying bribes to foreign government officials.

While the Justice Department has previously charged U.S. and European companies with paying bribes to Chinese officials, never before has it tried the representative of a Chinese company on charges of bribing foreign officials in exchange for business contracts.

At the heart of the Ho bribery case is the question of whether any payment promised or made to the African officials was a bribe, as prosecutors call it, or a charitable donation, as defense lawyers put it. 

As Ho’s Nov. 5 trial approaches, prosecutors have revealed how Gadio’s testimony, as well as evidence of Ho’s business dealings with Iran and alleged arms sales to African nations, will help their case at trial.

In a recent court filing, prosecutors wrote that Gadio will testify that Ho handed $2 million in cash, hidden in a gift box, to Deby, and only after Deby “refused to accept this obvious bribe” did Ho draft a letter pledging $2 million to “charitable causes” in Chad. 

Gadio will also tell a jury that Ho never asked him about the status of the donation, indicating Ho had no “interest in doing charitable works in Chad.”

“This expected testimony considerably strengthens the government’s proof beyond the already-strong case reflected in the detailed Complaint,” prosecutors wrote. 

Prosecutors have also indicated in recent days that they intend to introduce evidence of Ho’s involvement in other corrupt actions.

In a court filing last week, prosecutors disclosed they have evidence that shows Ho had offered a bribe to John Ashe, a diplomat from Antigua and Barbuda who served as president of the U.N. General Assembly the year before Kutesa held the post. (Ashe was implicated in another corruption case involving a Chinese national but he died in 2016 before the case went to trial). 

Prosecutors also plan to introduce evidence of Ho’s interest in doing business with Iran while the country was under U.S. sanctions, and brokering arms sales to Libya and Qatar. 

In an October 2014 email, one of several cited in court documents, Ho suggested that CEFC China serve as a “middleman” to help Iran access funds it kept in a Chinese bank under U.S. sanctions to pay a Hong Kong bank for precious metals.

The complaint had hinted at Ho’s willingness to help Chad procure weapons from China, but new government filings allege that Ho’s interest in arms dealing extended beyond Chad. 

In March 2015, according to an intercepted email, Ho asked an unidentified intermediary to send him a list of weapons and military equipment requested by Libya so that “we can execute that right away.”

A month later, Ho emailed the intermediary. “Qatar needs toys quite urgently. Their chief is coming to China, and we hope to give them a piece of good news.”

Prosecutors say they want to introduce the emails as background evidence “to show the development and nature of the relationship” between Ho and Gadio. 

Belevetz said that as with other white-collar criminal cases, the case against Ho will turn more on documents such as emails and wire transfer records than testimonies of witnesses. 

In white-collar cases, “you often have a paper trail that shows what was said,” Belevetz said.

Edward Kim, one of Ho’s lead attorneys, declined to comment.

Sean Hecker, Gadio’s lawyer, said in a statement to VOA, “Dr. Gadio looks forward to continuing to cooperate with U.S. authorities before returning to Senegal to continue his service to the Senegalese people and the important pursuit of establishing peace and security across the Sahel Region.”
…

Ireland’s finance minister boosted budget day spending for the second year in a row as the government warned of economic “carnage” if neighboring Britain crashes out of the European Union without a divorce deal.

Having already pre-committed 2.6 billion euros ($2.99 billion) on increased public sector and planned infrastructure spending for next year, Paschal Donohoe, in Tuesday’s annual budget speech, almost doubled the remaining pot to 1.5 billion euros to dish out on further tax cuts and spending increases.

The state’s fiscal watchdog warned ahead of the budget that the booming economy did not need such additional stimulus.

But with an election potentially looming and the fast-growing economy exacerbating deficits in areas such as housing, a scrapping of a reduced VAT rate for the hospitality sector mostly funded the extra 700 million euro of spending.

That allowed the government to keep giving workers a small annual tax break it has promised to continue in future budgets, reverse welfare cuts imposed during a series of austerity budgets a decade ago, and boost infrastructure spending. 

“The shared progress we have made is real. However the risks and challenges that we now face are equally real,” Donohoe told parliament in a speech that went long past the allotted hour as he reeled off measure after measure but also struck a tone of caution with 25 different mentions of Brexit.

Donohoe said the government’s “central case” was that Britain and the European Union would reached a Brexit deal in the coming weeks, but the possibility of a no deal had influenced the financial decisions made.

Foreign Minister Simon Coveney warned of “carnage” if Britain crashed left without a deal, though he said that would mostly be felt by Britain, with Ireland likely to benefit from “huge solidarity” from fellow EU member states.

A further round of “Brexit-proofing” measures, which have had mixed results to date, were announced in the budget, including a 300 million euro loan scheme for small and medium sized businesses and the agriculture and food sectors to invest in future growth.

Balanced budget 

Donohoe said the best preparation for Brexit was responsible budgeting and he intended to balance the state’s books for the first time in more than a decade next year, an improvement on the tiny deficit originally planned but still not the surplus the central bank says should already be running.

The state’s independent fiscal watchdog, set up in response to the years of reckless spending that left the exchequer massively exposed when the 2008 financial crisis hit, voiced concerns over the “not very good budgetary practice” of recent years.

It is particularly worried by successive years of spending coming in over budget, which it fears will happen again next year.

Hotel and restaurant owners were unhappy at their return to the standard 13.5 percent VAT from the 9 percent rate introduced in 2011 to boost the then struggling sector. In a report in July, Ireland’s finance department said the lower rate had become a “significant deadweight.”

“#Budget19 will be known as an election budget paid for by the tourism industry,” Adrian Cummins, head of the Restaurants Association of Ireland, tweeted.

Ireland’s betting tax was also doubled to 2 percent, hitting the country’s largest operator, Paddy Power Betfair, which said it would have cost it 20 million pounds  ($26 million) this year. Its shares closed down 5 percent.

Donohoe outlined his planned “exit tax” for firms that move assets or migrate their tax residence from Ireland, setting it in line with the corporate tax rate of 12.5 percent but surprising business by introducing it immediately and not by 2020 when Ireland was obliged to come in line with EU rules.

A company would be liable to pay the exit tax on gains built up in Ireland from any asset — such as intellectual property — it planned to move out of the scope of the Irish tax authorities. The measure is part of a new EU Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive.

The budget will be the last before the next parliamentary election if Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael-led minority government cannot agree an extension to its “confidence and supply” deal with the largest opposition party, Fianna Fail.

They agreed to open talks on Tuesday but while Varadkar said he wanted to complete the review and potential renewal by the end of the month, Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin saw talks lasting until until Christmas.
…

Foreign companies have been flocking to Vietnam.

Earlier this year, one of the world’s biggest private equity firms Warburg Pincus added banking and logistics to its Vietnam portfolio, pushing its total investment into the country over the $1 billion mark.

Auto players like JAC Motors of China, as well as Kamaz, the largest truck maker in Russia, have recently turned to Vietnam. The Southeast Asian country is seeing money pour in from all over the globe, whether it’s Indonesia’s Gojek in ride-hailing, or Qatar’s Ooredoo in telecommunications. 

With a trade war rippling across the Pacific and fears of interest rate contagion in emerging markets, much of Asia looks bleak. So why is the economy in communist Vietnam such a bright spot?

Stability is key

Gross domestic product is forecast to expand 7 percent this year. The currency and inflation are stable. Growth is expected in exports, manufacturing, foreign direct investment, and other indicators that show Vietnam outpacing rivals in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

“Vietnam is likely to remain the fastest-growing ASEAN economy in 2018 and 2019, as in 2017,” said Chidu Narayanan, Asia economist at Standard Chartered Bank. “We remain positive on Vietnam’s growth medium term on strong manufacturing activity, as FDI inflows to electronics manufacturing remain strong.”

The bank predicts a current account surplus of 3.7 percent of GDP for 2018, meaning Vietnam takes in more money through trade and investment than it sends abroad. That includes an increase in income from services, such as IT outsourcing.

To explain why the country of 100 million people is outperforming peers, it helps to look at factors like trade, consumer spending, and politics.

On the surface, Vietnam’s communist system would not sound like an appeal for investors. But many actually cite the political stability, albeit through one-party government, as a reason to come here. And in reality most businesses operate in a free market, with some state controls. 

Political stability contributes to economic stability, and it helped Vietnam weather a leadership transition that in other countries could spell volatility. Stock markets were not rattled when the president, Tran Dai Quang, died suddenly of illness last month while in office. He will be succeeded by Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong, a man known for maintaining the status quo.

“There will be no major change in Vietnam’s economic strategy or political system as a result of the passing of President Tran Dai Quang,” said Carl Thayer, emeritus politics professor, the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy.

Vietnam likes trade deals

That economic strategy has been characterized by trade deals with as many countries as possible. Through ASEAN, Vietnam has trade pacts with Australia, New Zealand, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. It also signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, as well as separate agreements with Russia and the European Union.

This could be part of the reason that investor optimism jumped 6 percentage points between the first and second quarters of 2018, according to a European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam survey released Oct. 3.

“These results show once again that European companies and investors remain confident in Vietnam,” chamber co-chair Nicolas Audier said. “On the cusp of this historic [EU-Vietnam free trade] deal, which would boost trade and investment on both sides, we hope this positive message from EuroCham and its members will inspire the government to continue opening its markets to foreign investment.”

Also drawing in businesses are Vietnamese shoppers. Consumer confidence was higher in Vietnam than in Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, market researcher Nielsen reported in March. As citizens’ incomes rise, their spending attracts brands in all manner of products.

Spanish fashion retailer Zara has opened outlets here, while Apple in September appointed its first premium reseller in the country, EDigi, authorized to do official repairs of iPhones and Macs. Vingroup, a conglomerate founded by Vietnam’s richest man, launched a line of cars this month with some promotional juice from soccer star David Beckham.

No economy is perfect

It’s not all coming up roses, of course. Economists say Vietnam needs to keep an eye on borrowing: consumers are using more credit cards, the government is close to its debt ceiling, and banks have more non-performing loans than desired. The real estate sector is also cooling, and the country wants to avoid any of the flak that comes from the trade war between the U.S. and China.

That trade war has made investors bearish on Asia’s biggest economy. Elsewhere in the region, Indonesia is fighting to hold the value of its currency, as investors abscond to take advantage of higher U.S. interest rates.

Philippine inflation is approaching 7 percent, the highest in nearly a decade. In Myanmar, the economic potential that once seemed sky-high is now taking a back seat as that state allows ethnic violence and jails journalists.

Vietnam is not far away but has been spared many of those problems for now. 
…

Malaysia may introduce new taxes and sell assets such as land to pay down debt, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Tuesday, as his administration struggles with liabilities of around 1 trillion ringgit ($240.67 billion).

Mahathir, who unexpectedly won a general election in May, has blamed the previous administration of Najib Razak for taking the country into such heavy debt, including that of the 1MDB state fund, which is the subject of corruption and money laundering investigations in Malaysia and other countries.

The government is also looking for new sources of revenue to make up the shortfall it is expected to face after scrapping an unpopular goods and services tax just weeks after the Mahathir-led Alliance of Hope coalition was elected to government.

“We may have to devise new taxes in order to have the money to pay our debts,” Mahathir told an investor conference.

“The other thing we can do is to sell our assets. Land is one of them… Beyond that we may have to sell some of our valuable assets in order to raise funds to pay the debts.”

He did not identify or elaborate on what these assets would be.

Last month, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng said Malaysia will consider a combination of new debt issuance and asset sales to meet its short-term financing needs.

($1 = 4.1550 ringgit)
…

Netflix has chosen New Mexico as the site of a new U.S. production hub and is in final negotiations to buy an existing multimillion-dollar studio complex on the edge of the state’s largest city, government and corporate leaders announced Monday.

 

It’s the company’s first purchase of such a property, and upcoming production work in Albuquerque and at other spots around New Mexico is forecast to result in $1 billion in spending over the next decade.

 

More than $14 million in state and local economic development funding is being tapped to bring Netflix to New Mexico. Republican Gov. Susana Martinez and Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller, a Democrat, touted the investment and said lengthy efforts to put New Mexico on the movie-making map are paying off.

“This is awesome,” the governor told dozens of people gathered inside a cavernous sound stage at ABQ Studios. “This massive investment will have a huge impact of course on New Mexico and continue our efforts to grow and diversify the economy.”

 

Martinez acknowledged the state’s reliance on federal funding and oil and gas development, saying more needs to be done to encourage diverse ventures such as Netflix as the private sector is the backbone of the American economy.

 

Keller said the city has laid the groundwork to make sure the film industry is part of its economic development plan. He called landing Netflix a “transformative victory” for the city.

Netflix projects produced in New Mexico include the Emmy Award-winning limited series “Godless” and “Longmire.” Company officials said previous experience working in the state inspired them to jump at the opportunity to establish a new production hub in Albuquerque.

 

Netflix earlier this year announced it was establishing its first European production hub in Spain. That operation is expected to help the online video entertainment platform expand its Spanish-language content.

 

It also has a production hub in Los Angeles and it’s possible the company’s footprint will continue to expand, given the amount of content the online entertainment provider is aiming to create.

 

“We will look at each place on its merits — the same kind of decision-making that went into the impending purchase of this studio,” said Ty Warren, Netflix’s vice president for physical production. “The combination of great crews, existing infrastructure, financial incentives — it was all part of it.”

 

Netflix has about 130 million subscribers worldwide.

 

Officials did not release details about the sales price of the studio complex in New Mexico. The property includes several sound stages, production offices, mill space and a back lot.

 

Martinez, whose second and final term ends this year, initially talked about trying to rein in New Mexico’s film incentive program and an annual $50 million cap was instituted.

 

As the state dug its way out of the recession, she said it was important to avoid cuts to critical programs such as education, health care and public infrastructure. She was criticized by many who thought the cap would stifle the growth of the film industry.

 

In 2013, she signed the “Breaking Bad bill,” named after the Emmy-winning TV drama that filmed primarily in Albuquerque during its five seasons. The legislation enhanced incentives for television productions.

 

Martinez said the industry has since marked three consecutive record-breaking years in New Mexico and it is lining up to be another monumental year.

 

The industry has drawn more in-state direct spending from film and TV productions each year since 2014, topping out at $505 million last fiscal year, according to the state film office.
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