Business

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Thursday it was “too early” to say if the United States would impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on imported cars and parts, a suggestion that has been met with harsh criticism from the industry.

The department opened an investigation in May into whether imported autos and parts pose a national security risk and was holding a hearing on the probe Thursday, taking testimony from auto trade groups, foreign governments and others.

Ross’ remarks came at the start of the public hearing, which he said was aimed at determining “whether government action is required to assure the viability of U.S. domestic production.”

A group representing major automakers told Commerce on Thursday that imposing tariffs of 25 percent on imported cars and parts would raise the price of U.S. vehicles by $83 billion annually and cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Automakers say there is “no evidence” that auto imports pose a national security risk, and that the tariffs could actually harm U.S. economic security.

They are also facing higher prices after tariffs were imposed on aluminum and steel.

The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, whose members include General Motors Co, Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp, warned on the impact of the tariffs.

“Higher auto tariffs will harm American families and workers, along with the economy” and “would raise the price of an imported car nearly $6,000 and the price of a U.S.-built car $2,000,” said Jennifer Thomas, a vice president for the group.

She noted that the U.S. exports more than $100 billion of autos and parts annually to other countries, while “there is a long list of products that are largely no longer made in the U.S., including TVs, laptops, cellphones, baseballs, and commercial ships.”

No automaker or parts company has endorsed the tariffs, and they have pointed to near-record sales in recent years.

Warnings

Jennifer Kelly, the United Auto Workers union research director, noted that U.S. auto production has fallen from 12.8 million vehicles in 2000 to 11.2 million in 2017 as the sector has shed about 400,000 jobs over that period, with many jobs moving to Mexico or other low-wage countries.

“We caution that any rash actions could have unforeseen consequences, including mass layoffs for American workers, but that does not mean we should do nothing,” she said, suggesting “targeted measures.”

Many firms that sell vintage vehicles also warned that the tariffs could devastate the industry because many older cars need parts that are only made outside the United States. Polaris Industries Inc warned that off-road vehicles could also be inadvertently covered by the tariffs.

A study released by a U.S. auto dealer group warned that the tariffs could cut U.S. auto sales by 2 million vehicles annually and cost more than 117,000 auto dealer jobs, or about 10 percent of the workforce.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested he would move quickly to impose tariffs, even before the government launched its probe.

‘Tremendous retribution’

“We said if we don’t negotiate something fair, then we have tremendous retribution, which we don’t want to use, but we have tremendous powers,” Trump said Wednesday. “We have to — including cars. Cars is the big one. And you know what we’re talking about with respect to cars and tariffs on cars.”

The European Union, Japan, Canada and Mexico, along with many automotive trade groups, are among 45 witnesses scheduled to testify during the daylong hearing.

The Commerce Department said earlier this week it aimed to complete the investigation “within a couple months.”
…

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he was not pleased about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates.

“I’m not thrilled,” Trump said in a CNBC interview that aired Friday. His remarks followed two interest rate hikes this year and Fed suggestions of two more increases before the end of the year.

“Because we go up and every time you go up, they want to raise rates again. I don’t really — I am not happy about it,” he said. “But at the same time, I’m letting them do what they feel is best.”

Presidents rarely intervene in developments involving the Fed, which sets the benchmark interest rate. Higher interest rates make it more expensive to borrow money, which slows economic activity. The rate hikes are intended to keep inflation from damaging the economy. Earlier, during a severe recession, the Fed slashed interest rates nearly to zero in a bid to boost economic growth.

Trump expressed frustration in the interview that the central bank’s actions could disrupt U.S. economic expansion.

Trump sought to give the economy a boost when he signed into law a major tax cut late last year. The law cut the corporate rate from 35 percent to 21 percent and lowered taxes on individual incomes as well.
…

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he was not pleased about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates.

“I’m not thrilled,” Trump said in a CNBC interview that aired Friday. His remarks followed two interest rate hikes this year and Fed suggestions of two more increases before the end of the year.

“Because we go up and every time you go up, they want to raise rates again. I don’t really — I am not happy about it,” he said. “But at the same time, I’m letting them do what they feel is best.”

Presidents rarely intervene in developments involving the Fed, which sets the benchmark interest rate. Higher interest rates make it more expensive to borrow money, which slows economic activity. The rate hikes are intended to keep inflation from damaging the economy. Earlier, during a severe recession, the Fed slashed interest rates nearly to zero in a bid to boost economic growth.

Trump expressed frustration in the interview that the central bank’s actions could disrupt U.S. economic expansion.

Trump sought to give the economy a boost when he signed into law a major tax cut late last year. The law cut the corporate rate from 35 percent to 21 percent and lowered taxes on individual incomes as well.
…

China’s Ambassador in Phnom Penh says the European Union should not mix politics with trade as it mulls withdrawing Cambodia’s vital preferential single market access in response to the country’s autocratic backslide.

The European Union has just wrapped up a fact-finding mission to Cambodia to determine if Everything But Arms (EBA) trade preferences should be withdrawn in light of actions such as the dissolution of the only viable alternative party at this month’s national election.

After delivering a public lecture about China’s Belt and Road initiative to students Tuesday at the University of Cambodia, Ambassador Xiong Bo repeatedly stressed free trade should not be impacted by political preconditions in response to a question about the EBA.

“So I think in terms of the trade relations between the EU and Cambodia I think these trade relations should be conducted according to the economic and trade rules but should not be changed according to any political reasons,” he said, speaking through a translator.

“No matter what the EU will do the Chinese will stand firmly in expanding and deepening our cooperation with Cambodia in all fields, especially in terms of trade and economic relations,” he said.

China has pumped billions of dollars into Cambodia through investment, concessional loans and aid in recent years, dramatically undermining the influence of Western powers in the country.

Xiong said the European Union has declared itself a staunch supporter of global free trade, sentiments he hoped the bloc would stick to, adding he did not believe all member states would support moves to withdraw the EBA.

Any decision to withdraw EBA status from Cambodia would require consensus among EU members.

The EBA grants developing countries such as Cambodia quota free and duty free access to the EU market.

This access is conditional on compliance with certain international human rights standards and countries have been sanctioned before for failing to meet those.

The European Union is Cambodia’s biggest market, absorbing about half of the country’s exports.

Monday, EU Ambassador to Cambodia George Edgar said a European Commission fact finding mission examining human rights and labor rights in the context of the EBA had concluded and would now report to EU decision makers.

Last week, EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said withdrawing the EBA was a “last resort if all our other efforts have failed” to address the bloc’s concerns.

Chief among those concerns are the jailing of Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) leader Kem Sokha in September and the dissolution of his party in November.

In both cases the actions were predicated on their alleged involvement in an internationally backed conspiracy to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen, who has ruled for 33 years.

Rights groups and foreign governments including the European Union have slammed the moves as a transparent ploy by Hun Sen to crush his only viable opponents before the country’s July 29 election. The United States has already sanctioned the commander of Hun Sen’s bodyguard unit, for carrying out “serious acts of human rights abuse against the people of Cambodia.”

Cambodia’s government says they are meddling in its internal affairs.

Cambodian government nervous

In June, Hun Sen dispatched one of his top advisors, Sok Siphana, to Brussels to lobby the European Union against removing the EBA.

A Cambodian statement at the time said, “Sadly and quite unfairly, in a very large number of cases, the Government felt like the victim of unfounded accusations and excessive generalizations.” It concluded, “There is a conspiracy and a treasonous act of collusion with a foreign power to do a regime change through undemocratic means. How could it be otherwise?”

Sok Siphana, a prominent lawyer and economic advisor who led Cambodia’s negotiations into the World Trade Organization in 2003, has not responded to VOA inquiries about the lobbying effort.

Political Analyst Meas Ny said he did not believe Sok had been successful in his mission.

“The recent mission sent by the Cambodian government it was hard for the head of the delegation to convince the EU community because I think the EU so far have got their information from all sources,” he said.

He said it is clear the Cambodian government is not going to change its stance due to the threat of EBA withdrawal.

“But I think we can talk up a lot of issues that the government might be facing in the future if the EBA is lifted,” he said.

Chief among those, Meas said, was the knock on effect to Cambodia’s micro-finance sector from the resulting unemployment among Cambodia’s 700,000 garment workers, many of whom are heavily indebted.

Late last year, Commerce Minister Pan Sorasak warned in a leaked letter if the EBA were withdrawn Cambodia would have to pay $676 million for an estimated $6.2 billion in revenue from exports to the European Union.
…

China’s Ambassador in Phnom Penh says the European Union should not mix politics with trade as it mulls withdrawing Cambodia’s vital preferential single market access in response to the country’s autocratic backslide.

The European Union has just wrapped up a fact-finding mission to Cambodia to determine if Everything But Arms (EBA) trade preferences should be withdrawn in light of actions such as the dissolution of the only viable alternative party at this month’s national election.

After delivering a public lecture about China’s Belt and Road initiative to students Tuesday at the University of Cambodia, Ambassador Xiong Bo repeatedly stressed free trade should not be impacted by political preconditions in response to a question about the EBA.

“So I think in terms of the trade relations between the EU and Cambodia I think these trade relations should be conducted according to the economic and trade rules but should not be changed according to any political reasons,” he said, speaking through a translator.

“No matter what the EU will do the Chinese will stand firmly in expanding and deepening our cooperation with Cambodia in all fields, especially in terms of trade and economic relations,” he said.

China has pumped billions of dollars into Cambodia through investment, concessional loans and aid in recent years, dramatically undermining the influence of Western powers in the country.

Xiong said the European Union has declared itself a staunch supporter of global free trade, sentiments he hoped the bloc would stick to, adding he did not believe all member states would support moves to withdraw the EBA.

Any decision to withdraw EBA status from Cambodia would require consensus among EU members.

The EBA grants developing countries such as Cambodia quota free and duty free access to the EU market.

This access is conditional on compliance with certain international human rights standards and countries have been sanctioned before for failing to meet those.

The European Union is Cambodia’s biggest market, absorbing about half of the country’s exports.

Monday, EU Ambassador to Cambodia George Edgar said a European Commission fact finding mission examining human rights and labor rights in the context of the EBA had concluded and would now report to EU decision makers.

Last week, EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said withdrawing the EBA was a “last resort if all our other efforts have failed” to address the bloc’s concerns.

Chief among those concerns are the jailing of Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) leader Kem Sokha in September and the dissolution of his party in November.

In both cases the actions were predicated on their alleged involvement in an internationally backed conspiracy to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen, who has ruled for 33 years.

Rights groups and foreign governments including the European Union have slammed the moves as a transparent ploy by Hun Sen to crush his only viable opponents before the country’s July 29 election. The United States has already sanctioned the commander of Hun Sen’s bodyguard unit, for carrying out “serious acts of human rights abuse against the people of Cambodia.”

Cambodia’s government says they are meddling in its internal affairs.

Cambodian government nervous

In June, Hun Sen dispatched one of his top advisors, Sok Siphana, to Brussels to lobby the European Union against removing the EBA.

A Cambodian statement at the time said, “Sadly and quite unfairly, in a very large number of cases, the Government felt like the victim of unfounded accusations and excessive generalizations.” It concluded, “There is a conspiracy and a treasonous act of collusion with a foreign power to do a regime change through undemocratic means. How could it be otherwise?”

Sok Siphana, a prominent lawyer and economic advisor who led Cambodia’s negotiations into the World Trade Organization in 2003, has not responded to VOA inquiries about the lobbying effort.

Political Analyst Meas Ny said he did not believe Sok had been successful in his mission.

“The recent mission sent by the Cambodian government it was hard for the head of the delegation to convince the EU community because I think the EU so far have got their information from all sources,” he said.

He said it is clear the Cambodian government is not going to change its stance due to the threat of EBA withdrawal.

“But I think we can talk up a lot of issues that the government might be facing in the future if the EBA is lifted,” he said.

Chief among those, Meas said, was the knock on effect to Cambodia’s micro-finance sector from the resulting unemployment among Cambodia’s 700,000 garment workers, many of whom are heavily indebted.

Late last year, Commerce Minister Pan Sorasak warned in a leaked letter if the EBA were withdrawn Cambodia would have to pay $676 million for an estimated $6.2 billion in revenue from exports to the European Union.
…

Luxury air travel faster than the speed of sound: A US start-up is aiming to revive commercial supersonic flight 50 years after the ill-fated Concorde first took to the skies.

Blake Scholl, the former Amazon staffer who co-founded Boom Supersonic, delivered the pledge this week in front of a fully-restored Concorde jet at the Brooklands aviation and motor museum in Weybridge, southwest of London.

The company aims to manufacture a prototype 55-seater business jet next year but its plans have been met with scepticism in some quarters.

“The story of Concorde is the story of a journey started but not completed — and we want to pick up on it,” Scholl said at an event that coincided with the nearby Farnborough Airshow.

“Today … the world is more linked than it’s ever been before and the need for improved human connection has never been greater.

“At Boom, we are inspired at what was accomplished half a century ago,” he added, speaking in front of a former British Airways Concorde.

Boom Supersonic’s early backers include Richard Branson and Japan Airlines, and other players are eyeing the same segment.

Speaking to AFP at Farnborough on Wednesday, Scholl indicated that the air tickets could be beyond the reach of some.

“What we’ve been able to do thanks to advances in aerodynamics and materials and engines is offer a high speed flight for the same price you pay in business class today,” he said. 

He said this works out to around $5,000 (4,300 euros) round-trip across the Atlantic.

“Now I know that might sounds like a lot, because it is, but it’s actually the same price you pay for a lay flat bed on airlines today,” he said.

‘Baby Boom’

Boom Supersonic’s aircraft, dubbed Baby Boom, is expected by the company to fly for the first time next year.

The company is making its debut at Farnborough and hopes to produce its new-generation jets in the mid-2020s or later, with the aim of slashing journey times by half.

The proposed aircraft has a maximum flying range of 8,334 kilometres (5,167 miles) at a speed of Mach 2.2 or 2,335 kilometres per hour.

If it takes off, it would be the first supersonic passenger aircraft since Concorde took its final flight in 2003.

The Concorde was retired following an accident in 2000 in which a Concorde crashed shortly after takeoff from Paris, killing 113 people.

“The one accident that did happen on Concord actually happened on the runway,” Scholl told AFP on Wednesday.

“It had nothing to do with high-speed flight so there’s no actual barrier to creating a highly safe, efficient supersonic airplane and we have super high standards for safety.

“We’ll be going through the same safety testing process that every other aircraft goes through and the FAA (US Federal Aviation Administration) and EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency) will not let our airplane fly unless we pass a very high safety bar.”Some analysts meanwhile remain sceptical over the push back into supersonic, with consumer demand booming for cheap low-cost carriers.

“Supersonic is not what passengers or airlines want right now,” said Strategic Aero analyst Saj Ahmad.

Ahmad said supersonic jets were “very unattractive” because of high start-up development costs, considerations about noise pollution and high prices as well as limited capacity.

‘Untried and untested’

Independent air transport consultant John Strickland noted supersonic travel was unproven commercially.

“If there is an economic downturn or something happens where the market for business class traffic drains away, then you have nothing else left to do with that aircraft,” Strickland said.

“I think it’s going to be some time before we see whether it can establish a large viable market … in the way that Concorde never managed to do.”

These concerns have not stopped interest from other players.

US aerospace giant Boeing had last month unveiled its “hypersonic” airliner concept, which it hopes will fly at Mach 5 — or five times the speed of sound — when it arrives on the scene in 20 to 30 years.

And in April, NASA inked a deal for US giant Lockheed Martin to develop a supersonic “X-plane.”
…

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has apologized for calling a British diver involved in the Thailand cave rescue a pedophile, saying he spoke in anger but was wrong to do so.

There was no immediate public reaction from diver Vern Unsworth to Musk’s latest tweets.

Musk’s initial tweet calling Unsworth a “pedo” was a response to a TV interview Unsworth gave. In it, he said Musk and SpaceX engineers orchestrated a “PR stunt” by sending a small submarine to help divers rescue the 12 Thai soccer players and their coach from a flooded cave. Unsworth said the submarine, which wasn’t used, wouldn’t have worked anyway.

“My words were spoken in anger after Mr. Unsworth said several untruths …” Musk tweeted.

“Nonetheless, his actions against me do not justify my actions against him, and for that I apologize to Mr. Unsworth and to the companies I represent as leader. The fault is mine and mine alone.”

Musk’s Sunday tweet, later deleted, had sent investors away from Tesla stock, which fell nearly 3 percent Monday but recovered 4.1 percent Tuesday. Unsworth told CNN earlier this week that he was considering legal action. He did not respond to requests for comment from The Associated Press.

In his latest tweets, Musk said the mini-sub was “built as an act of kindness & according to specifications from the dive team leader.”

Musk has 22.3 million followers and his active social media presence has sometimes worked well for Tesla. The company has said in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it doesn’t need to advertise because it gets so much free media attention.

But straying away from defending his companies into personal insult brought Musk some unfavorable attention at a time when Tesla, worth more than $52 billion, is deep in debt and struggling for profitability. 

In northern Thailand on Wednesday, the 12 Thai soccer players and their coach answered questions from journalists, their first meeting with the media since their rescues last week. Doctors said all are healthy.
…

U.S. President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser accused Chinese President Xi Jinping Thursday of stalling efforts to resolve a growing trade dispute with the U.S.

White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said he believed lower-level Chinese officials want to end tariffs the world two largest economic powers have imposed on each other, but that Xi has refused to amend China’s technology transfer and other trade policies.

“So far as we know, President Xi, at the moment, does not want to make a deal,” Kudlow said in an interview on CNBC. “I think Xi is holding the game up,” Kudlow said, and added, “The ball is in his court.”

Kudlow said China could end U.S. tariffs “this afternoon” if it took measures that include cutting tariff and non-tariff barriers to imports. The U.S. has also called on Beijing to end the “theft” of intellectual property and allow full foreign ownership of companies operating in China.

Kudlow also said he expects European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to make a trade offer when he meets with Trump at the White House next week.

Trump has demanded that the EU cut its 10 percent tariffs in auto imports at a time when his administration is conducting a national security study that could result in a 25 percent U.S. tariff on imported vehicles.

A 25 percent tariff would have a significant financial impact on European and Japanese automakers, and while Juncker has said he would make an trade offer to Trump next week, he did not offer details.

Earlier this month, Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on Chinese goods valued at $34 billion, with another $16 billion set to take effect in the near future. Trump has also announced 10 percent tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese products that could be imposed as early as next month.

Beijing retaliated to the first tariffs by placing duties on the same dollar amount of American imports, and has vowed to counter any further U.S. actions.

Trump imposed the tariffs after an Office of the U.S. Trade Representative investigation concluded China was violating intellectual property rules and forcing U.S. companies operating in China to hand over technology secrets in exchange for access to the Chinese market.
…

Boeing has received a $3.9 billion contract to build two 747-8 aircraft for use as Air Force One by the U.S. president, due to be delivered by December 2024 and painted red, white and blue, officials said on Tuesday.

The Pentagon announced the decision on Tuesday, saying Seattle-based Boeing’s previously awarded contract for development work had been expanded to include design, modification and fielding of two mission-ready presidential 747-8 aircraft.

The contract followed the outlines of the informal deal reached between Boeing and the White House in February. That agreement came after President Donald Trump objected to the $4 billion price tag of a previous Air Force One deal, complaining in a Twitter post that “costs are out of control” and adding “Cancel order!”

The White House said in February the new deal would save taxpayers more than $1.4 billion, but those savings could not be independently confirmed.

Air Force budget documents released in February for fiscal year 2019 disclosed a $3.9 billion cost for the two-aircraft program. The same 2018 budget document, not adjusted for inflation, showed the price at $3.6 billion.

The Boeing 747-8s are designed to be an airborne White House able to fly in worst-case security scenarios, such as nuclear war, and are modified with military avionics, advanced communications and a self-defense system.

A congressional official briefed on Tuesday about the deal indicated it was little changed from the informal agreement reached in February, calling for two 747-8 aircraft to be built for $3.9 billion and delivered by December 2024.

Trump told CBS in an interview that aired on Tuesday that the new model Air Force One would be updated on the inside and have a different exterior color scheme from the current white and two shades of blue dating back to President John F. Kennedy’s administration.

“Red, white and blue,” Trump said. “Air Force One is going to be incredible. It’s going to be the top of the line, the top in the world. And it’s going to be red, white and blue, which I think is appropriate.”
…

Boeing has received a $3.9 billion contract to build two 747-8 aircraft for use as Air Force One by the U.S. president, due to be delivered by December 2024 and painted red, white and blue, officials said on Tuesday.

The Pentagon announced the decision on Tuesday, saying Seattle-based Boeing’s previously awarded contract for development work had been expanded to include design, modification and fielding of two mission-ready presidential 747-8 aircraft.

The contract followed the outlines of the informal deal reached between Boeing and the White House in February. That agreement came after President Donald Trump objected to the $4 billion price tag of a previous Air Force One deal, complaining in a Twitter post that “costs are out of control” and adding “Cancel order!”

The White House said in February the new deal would save taxpayers more than $1.4 billion, but those savings could not be independently confirmed.

Air Force budget documents released in February for fiscal year 2019 disclosed a $3.9 billion cost for the two-aircraft program. The same 2018 budget document, not adjusted for inflation, showed the price at $3.6 billion.

The Boeing 747-8s are designed to be an airborne White House able to fly in worst-case security scenarios, such as nuclear war, and are modified with military avionics, advanced communications and a self-defense system.

A congressional official briefed on Tuesday about the deal indicated it was little changed from the informal agreement reached in February, calling for two 747-8 aircraft to be built for $3.9 billion and delivered by December 2024.

Trump told CBS in an interview that aired on Tuesday that the new model Air Force One would be updated on the inside and have a different exterior color scheme from the current white and two shades of blue dating back to President John F. Kennedy’s administration.

“Red, white and blue,” Trump said. “Air Force One is going to be incredible. It’s going to be the top of the line, the top in the world. And it’s going to be red, white and blue, which I think is appropriate.”
…

Prototypes? Passe. Fashion company Betabrand saw that knitwear was a hot style in sneakers and wanted to quickly jump on the trend for dressier shoes. It put a poll up on its website asking shoppers what style they liked, and based on that had a shoe for sale online in just one week.

 

What web shoppers saw was a 3-D rendering — no actual shoe existed yet. Creating a traditional prototype, tweaking the design and making a sample would have taken six to nine months, and the company might have missed out on the interest in knit.

 

“The web attention span is short,” said Betabrand CEO Chris Lindland. “So if you can develop and create in a short time, you can be a real product-development machine.”

Shoppers looking at the shoe online could examine the peekaboo detail or check out how the sole was put together, as they would from photos of a real product. They don’t get the actual shoes instantaneously — they have to wait a few months. But the use of digital technology in designing and selling means hot trends are still getting to people far faster than under the old system.

 

“Retailers and brands who are embracing this are going to be winners of the future,” said David Bassuk, managing director of consulting group AlixPartners. “This is flipping the business model on its head.”

 

It’s a big cultural change for clothing makers. For decades, the process meant designers sketched ideas on paper, a design got approved, and the sketches went to a factory that created prototypes. Designers and product developers made tweaks and sent prototypes back and forth. Once a final version was approved, it was sent to the factory to be copied for mass production. Getting something from design to a store could take at least a year.

Now, some companies have designers sketching on high-resolution tablets with software that can email 3-D renderings of garments with specifications straight to factories, as better technology makes the images look real and the pressure to get shoppers new products swiftly intensifies. The goal is to reduce to six months or less the time it takes to get to store shelves.

 

Even chains like H&M, which once set the standard for speed by flying in frequent small batches, are realizing that’s not fast enough. H&M, which has seen sales slow, is starting to digitize certain areas of its manufacturing process.

 

For clothing makers and retailers, the shift means design decisions can happen closer to when the fashions actually hit the shelves or website. That means less guessing so stores aren’t stuck with piles of unsold clothes that need to be discounted.

 

The 3-D technology is used in just 2 percent of the overall supply networks, estimates Spencer Fung, group CEO of Li & Fung, which consults with more than 8,000 retailers including Betabrand and 15,000 suppliers globally. But he believes that will change as retailers begin prioritizing speed and realize that cutting down on design time and prototypes saves money.

 

“You can actually essentially create an entire collection before you even cut one garment,” said Whitney Cathcart, CEO of the Cathcart Technologies consulting firm. “So it reduces waste, it reduces lead times, it allows decision making in real time, so the entire process becomes more efficient.”

 

Fung imagines a scenario where a social media post with a celebrity in a red dress gets 500,000 “likes.” An alert goes to a retailer that this item is trending. Within hours, a digital sample of a similar dress is on its website. A factory can start to produce the dress in days.

 

“Consumers see it and they want it now,” says Michael Londrigan of fashion college LIM in New York. “How do you bring it to market so you don’t miss those dollars?”

 

Nicki Rector of the Sonoma Valley area in California bought a pair of Betabrand’s Western-style boots last summer based on the 3-D rendering.

 

“It looked real,” said Rector, who examined the images of the heel and the insoles. She didn’t worry about buying off a digital image, reasoning that if you’re buying online you can’t really know how something’s going to fit until you put it on your feet. She said knowing it was designed from customer input also helped make the wait OK.

 

Betabrand has sold 40,000 pairs of shoes priced from $128 to $168 over the past year, all from digital renderings, and plans to add 15 to 20 such projects this year.

At a Levi Strauss & Co. research and development facility in San Francisco, designers use programs that offer the look of a finished garment and let them make changes like adding pockets quickly, rather than requiring a new prototype. When they’re set, they can send a file to the factory for mass production. Using digital samples can shorten the design time to one week or less from an eight-week timeframe, Levi’s says.

 

Few companies are yet selling directly to shoppers off digital renderings like Betabrand, and are instead showing them to store buyers or to factories rather than using traditional samples.

 

Xcel Brands uses them for its own brand of women’s tops and for the company’s Judith Ripka jewelry line. The company, which also makes clothes for Isaac Mizrahi and Halston, will start using them for other brands within the year. CEO Robert D’Loren hopes to start putting 3-D samples on its website next year.

 

Tommy Hilfiger has an interactive touchscreen table where buyers can view every item in the collection and create custom orders. And Deckers Brands, the maker of Ugg boots, is using digital renderings of the classic boot in 10 colors, eliminating the need for 10 prototypes for store buyers. That helps reduce cost and increases speed.

 

Using digital designs also mean the exact specifications for different Levi’s design finishes can be uploaded to a machine that uses lasers to scrape away at jeans. No need to teach employees how to execute a designer’s vision, in a minute and a half the lasers have given the jeans the exact weathered look that took workers wielding pumice stones twenty minutes to half an hour.

 

“Thirty years ago, jeans were only available in three shades — rinse, stonewash and bleach,” said Bart Sights, head of the Levi’s Eureka lab. “Our company now designs 1,000 finishes per season.” Such a long lead time “pushes production and creation too far away.” Levi’s latest technology alleviates this issue, he said.
…

Prototypes? Passe. Fashion company Betabrand saw that knitwear was a hot style in sneakers and wanted to quickly jump on the trend for dressier shoes. It put a poll up on its website asking shoppers what style they liked, and based on that had a shoe for sale online in just one week.

 

What web shoppers saw was a 3-D rendering — no actual shoe existed yet. Creating a traditional prototype, tweaking the design and making a sample would have taken six to nine months, and the company might have missed out on the interest in knit.

 

“The web attention span is short,” said Betabrand CEO Chris Lindland. “So if you can develop and create in a short time, you can be a real product-development machine.”

Shoppers looking at the shoe online could examine the peekaboo detail or check out how the sole was put together, as they would from photos of a real product. They don’t get the actual shoes instantaneously — they have to wait a few months. But the use of digital technology in designing and selling means hot trends are still getting to people far faster than under the old system.

 

“Retailers and brands who are embracing this are going to be winners of the future,” said David Bassuk, managing director of consulting group AlixPartners. “This is flipping the business model on its head.”

 

It’s a big cultural change for clothing makers. For decades, the process meant designers sketched ideas on paper, a design got approved, and the sketches went to a factory that created prototypes. Designers and product developers made tweaks and sent prototypes back and forth. Once a final version was approved, it was sent to the factory to be copied for mass production. Getting something from design to a store could take at least a year.

Now, some companies have designers sketching on high-resolution tablets with software that can email 3-D renderings of garments with specifications straight to factories, as better technology makes the images look real and the pressure to get shoppers new products swiftly intensifies. The goal is to reduce to six months or less the time it takes to get to store shelves.

 

Even chains like H&M, which once set the standard for speed by flying in frequent small batches, are realizing that’s not fast enough. H&M, which has seen sales slow, is starting to digitize certain areas of its manufacturing process.

 

For clothing makers and retailers, the shift means design decisions can happen closer to when the fashions actually hit the shelves or website. That means less guessing so stores aren’t stuck with piles of unsold clothes that need to be discounted.

 

The 3-D technology is used in just 2 percent of the overall supply networks, estimates Spencer Fung, group CEO of Li & Fung, which consults with more than 8,000 retailers including Betabrand and 15,000 suppliers globally. But he believes that will change as retailers begin prioritizing speed and realize that cutting down on design time and prototypes saves money.

 

“You can actually essentially create an entire collection before you even cut one garment,” said Whitney Cathcart, CEO of the Cathcart Technologies consulting firm. “So it reduces waste, it reduces lead times, it allows decision making in real time, so the entire process becomes more efficient.”

 

Fung imagines a scenario where a social media post with a celebrity in a red dress gets 500,000 “likes.” An alert goes to a retailer that this item is trending. Within hours, a digital sample of a similar dress is on its website. A factory can start to produce the dress in days.

 

“Consumers see it and they want it now,” says Michael Londrigan of fashion college LIM in New York. “How do you bring it to market so you don’t miss those dollars?”

 

Nicki Rector of the Sonoma Valley area in California bought a pair of Betabrand’s Western-style boots last summer based on the 3-D rendering.

 

“It looked real,” said Rector, who examined the images of the heel and the insoles. She didn’t worry about buying off a digital image, reasoning that if you’re buying online you can’t really know how something’s going to fit until you put it on your feet. She said knowing it was designed from customer input also helped make the wait OK.

 

Betabrand has sold 40,000 pairs of shoes priced from $128 to $168 over the past year, all from digital renderings, and plans to add 15 to 20 such projects this year.

At a Levi Strauss & Co. research and development facility in San Francisco, designers use programs that offer the look of a finished garment and let them make changes like adding pockets quickly, rather than requiring a new prototype. When they’re set, they can send a file to the factory for mass production. Using digital samples can shorten the design time to one week or less from an eight-week timeframe, Levi’s says.

 

Few companies are yet selling directly to shoppers off digital renderings like Betabrand, and are instead showing them to store buyers or to factories rather than using traditional samples.

 

Xcel Brands uses them for its own brand of women’s tops and for the company’s Judith Ripka jewelry line. The company, which also makes clothes for Isaac Mizrahi and Halston, will start using them for other brands within the year. CEO Robert D’Loren hopes to start putting 3-D samples on its website next year.

 

Tommy Hilfiger has an interactive touchscreen table where buyers can view every item in the collection and create custom orders. And Deckers Brands, the maker of Ugg boots, is using digital renderings of the classic boot in 10 colors, eliminating the need for 10 prototypes for store buyers. That helps reduce cost and increases speed.

 

Using digital designs also mean the exact specifications for different Levi’s design finishes can be uploaded to a machine that uses lasers to scrape away at jeans. No need to teach employees how to execute a designer’s vision, in a minute and a half the lasers have given the jeans the exact weathered look that took workers wielding pumice stones twenty minutes to half an hour.

 

“Thirty years ago, jeans were only available in three shades — rinse, stonewash and bleach,” said Bart Sights, head of the Levi’s Eureka lab. “Our company now designs 1,000 finishes per season.” Such a long lead time “pushes production and creation too far away.” Levi’s latest technology alleviates this issue, he said.
…

Time and effort have gone down the drain for Steve Gould, who is scrambling to find new customers for his gin, whiskey and other spirits since the United States has taken a tough stance on trade issues.

Before the European Union retaliated against new U.S. tariffs with taxes of its own, Gould expected revenue from the EU at his Golden Moon Distillery in Colorado to reach $250,000 or $350,000 this year. Now he’s concerned that European exports will total just $25,000. Golden Moon already saw an effect when then-candidate Donald Trump made trade an issue during the 2016 campaign. Gould lost one of his Mexican importers and an investor, as overseas demand for small-distiller spirits was growing.

“We’ve lost years of work and hundreds of thousands of dollars in building relationships with offshore markets,” says Gould, who’s hoping to find new customers in countries like Japan. 

President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies are taking a toll on small U.S. manufacturers. The president has imposed tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum imports from most of the world, including Europe, Mexico and Canada, driving up costs for companies that rely on those metals. And he has slapped 25 percent taxes on $34 billion in Chinese imports in a separate trade dispute, targeting mostly machinery and industrial components so far. Trump’s tariffs have drawn retaliation from around the world. China is taxing American soybeans, among other things; the European Union has hit Harley-Davidson motorcycles and Kentucky bourbon; Canada has imposed tariffs on a range of products — from U.S. steel to dishwasher detergent.

More businesses could be feeling the pain as the trade disputes escalate — the administration on Tuesday threatened to impose 10 percent tariffs on thousands of Chinese products including fish, apples and burglar alarms. And China responded with a tariff threat of its own, although it didn’t say what U.S. exports would be targeted.

Small businesses are particularly vulnerable to tariffs because they lack the financial resources larger companies have to absorb higher costs. Large companies can move production overseas — as Harley-Davidson recently announced it would do to escape 25 percent retaliatory tariffs in Europe. But “if you’re a small firm, it’s much harder to do that; you don’t have an international network of production locations,” says Lee Branstetter, professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz College.

Shifting manufacturing away from items that use components that are being taxed is also harder since small businesses tend to make fewer products, he says. And if tariffs make it too expensive to export to their current markets, small companies may not be able to afford the effort of finding new ones.

Small-business owners have been growing more confident over the past year as the economy has been strong, and they’ve been hiring at a steady if not robust pace. But those hurt by tariffs are can lose their optimism and appetite for growth within a few months.

“They have narrow profit margins and it’s a tax,” says Kent Jones, an economics professor at Babson College. “That lowers their profit margins and increases the possibility of layoffs and even bankruptcies.”

Yacht company

Bertram Yachts is one company finding it trickier to maneuver. The U.S. has put a 25 percent tariff on hundreds of boat parts imported from China, where most marine components are made. And European countries have imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S.-made boats. Last year, Bertram exported about a third of its boats, with half going to Europe.

“We have been squeezed on both sides,” says Peter Truslow, CEO of the Tampa, Florida-based boat maker.

Truslow doesn’t know how the tariffs will affect the company’s sales and profits, but dealers he’s spoken to in Europe have already gotten cancellations on boats that run into the millions of dollars. Bertram plans to try to build up its strong U.S. business and seek more customers in countries that aren’t involved in trade disputes with the U.S., including Japan and Australia.

Still, the company’s growth and job creation stand to slow. “It’s probably going to be more about a reduction in hiring than it is about layoffs,” Truslow says.

The ripples are being felt across the industry, says Tom Dammrich, president of the National Marine Manufacturers Association trade group. He estimates there are about 1,000 manufacturers, almost all small or mid-size businesses, and says some parts can only be bought from China.

Metal fabrication

Matt Barton’s metal fabrication company, which makes custom replacement parts for farm equipment, outdoor signs and people who race hot rods, is paying its suppliers up to 20 percent more for metals than it did a year ago.

Prices had soared as much as 40 percent months ago amid expectations of U.S. tariffs on aluminum and steel. They have since steadied, but are expected to remain high for three to six months. Barton’s Pittsboro, Indiana-based company, The Hero Lab, is absorbing part of the increases. Some racing customers are still delaying orders.

“What they budgeted to cost $1,000 now is now $1,200 or $1,500,” Barton says. “They’re pushing their orders back four to six weeks, waiting for a few more paychecks to come in.”

Cheese maker

Jeff Schwager’s cheese company, Sartori, is selling products to Mexico at break-even prices because of that nation’s retaliatory 25 percent tariff. Twelve percent of the Plymouth, Wisconsin-based company’s revenue comes from exports, which is the fastest-growing segment of the business.

Sartori and its Mexican importer are each absorbing half the costs of the tariff. Schwager, the CEO, doesn’t see leaving the Mexican market as an option.

“If you lose space on the grocery store shelf, or you’re taken out of recipes in restaurants, that takes years to get back,” he says. He hopes the trade dispute can be resolved and tariffs rolled back.

Flatware maker

But some small manufacturers believe they can benefit from a trade dispute. Greg Owens, president of flatware maker Sherrill Manufacturing, says if his competitors in China are hit by U.S. tariffs, he could see revenue increase.

“They would have to raise the retail price, which would allow us to raise our prices,” says Owens, whose company is located in Sherrill, New York. In turn, Owens says, that would allow “long overdue” raises for workers and upgrades to capital equipment.
…

A former official at a Venezuelan state-run electric company pleaded guilty on Monday to U.S. charges that he participated in a scheme to solicit bribes in exchange for helping vendors win favorable treatment from state oil company PDVSA.

Luis Carlos De Leon Perez, 42, pleaded guilty in federal court in Houston to conspiring to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and to conspiring to commit money laundering, the U.S. Justice Department said.

He became the 12th person to plead guilty as part of a larger investigation by the Justice Department into bribery at Petroleos de Venezuela SA that became public with the arrest of two Venezuelan businessmen in December 2015.

The two men were Roberto Rincon, who was president of Tradequip Services & Marine, and Abraham Jose Shiera Bastidas, the manager of Vertix Instrumentos. Both pleaded guilty in 2016 to conspiring to pay bribes to secure energy contracts.

De Leon is scheduled to be sentenced on Sept. 24. His lawyers did not respond to requests for comment.

De Leon was arrested in October 2017 in Spain and was extradited to the United States after being indicted along with four other former Venezuelan officials on charges they solicited bribes to help vendors win favorable treatment from

PDVSA.

An indictment said that from 2011 to 2013 the five Venezuelans sought bribes and kickbacks from vendors to help them secure PDVSA contracts and gain priority over other vendors for outstanding invoices during its liquidity crisis.

Prosecutors said De Leon was among a group of PDVSA officials and people outside the company with influence at it who solicited bribes from Rincon and Shiera. De Leon worked with those men to then launder the bribe money, prosecutors said.

De Leon also sought bribes from the owners of other energy companies and directed some of that money to PDVSA officials in order help those businesses out, prosecutors said.

Among the people indicted with De Leon was Cesar David Rincon Godoy, a former general manager at PDVSA’s procurement unit Bariven. He pleaded guilty in April to one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering.

Others charged included Nervis Villalobos, a former Venezuelan vice minister of energy; Rafael Reiter, who worked as PDVSA’s head of security and loss prevention; and Alejandro Isturiz Chiesa, who was an assistant to Bariven’s president.

Villalobos and Reiter were, like De Leon, arrested in Spain, where they remain pending extradition, the Justice Department said. Isturiz remains at large.
…

The United States launched five separate World Trade Organization dispute actions on Monday challenging retaliatory tariffs imposed by China, the European Union, Canada, Mexico and Turkey following U.S. duties on steel and aluminum.

The retaliatory tariffs on up to a combined $28.5 billion worth of U.S. exports are illegal under WTO rules, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a statement.

“These tariffs appear to breach each WTO member’s commitments under the WTO Agreement,” he said. “The United States will take all necessary actions to protect our interests, and we urge our trading partners to work constructively with us on the problems created by massive and persistent excess capacity in the steel and aluminum sectors.”

Lighthizer’s office has maintained that the tariffs the United States has imposed on imports of steel and aluminum are acceptable under WTO rules because they were imposed on the grounds of a national security exception.

Mexico said it would defend its retaliatory measures, saying the imposition of U.S. tariffs was “unjustified.”

“The purchases the United States makes of steel and aluminum from Mexico do not represent a threat to the national security,” Mexico’s Economy Ministry said in a statement.

“On the contrary, the solid trade relationship between Mexico and the U.S. has created an integrated regional market where steel and aluminum products contribute to the competitiveness of the region in various strategic sectors, such as automotive, aerospace, electrical and electronic,” the ministry added.

Lighthizer said last month that retaliation had no legal basis because the EU and other trading partners were making false assertions that the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs are illegal “safeguard” actions intended to protect U.S. producers.
…

Democratic Republic of Congo’s plan to drill for oil in national parks could leave thousands of farmers and fishermen who rely on the land in a struggle to survive, rights groups said Monday.

The central African country announced last month that it was taking steps toward declassifying parts of Virunga and Salonga national parks, both recognized as world heritage sites by the United Nations, to allow for oil exploration.

The parks, which together cover an area about the size of Switzerland, are among the world’s largest tropical rainforest reserves and home to rare species including forest elephants.

Allowing drilling in the parks would cause a loss of biodiversity, release huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and pollute water that thousands of local people use for fishing and farming, according to several rights groups.

Congolese state spokesman Lambert Mende told Reuters that the government will study the potential impact of oil drilling on local communities before they proceed.

The government has previously defended its right to authorize drilling anywhere in the country and said it is mindful of environmental considerations, such as protecting animals and plants, in the two national parks.

“There are lake-shore communities, especially in Virunga, that are very dependent on fishing and on the park’s integrity,” said Pete Jones of environmental advocacy group Global Witness.

“That really needs to be taken into account and doesn’t seem to be part of the debate that’s happening, which is a shame,” he told Reuters.

Conservation group World Wildlife Fund (WWF) also said it is concerned about the impact of oil drilling on at least 50,000 people who benefit from the fishing industry in Virunga, and tens of thousands more who farm on the outskirts of the parks.

“The risks of pollution are clear and present. The fishing industry would suffer considerably if it gets to that point,” said Juan Seve, WWF country director in Congo.

The oil industry would be unlikely to create local jobs since specialists would be brought in from abroad, he added.

The U.N.’s cultural agency UNESCO has previously said that oil exploration should not be conducted at world heritage sites.
…

American boxer Floyd Mayweather was named the world’s highest-paid entertainer on Monday on a list that saw actor George Clooney take the No. 2 spot with the highest annual pay of his career.

Reality star Kylie Jenner, 20, came in third on the annual Forbes Celebrity 100 list, largely thanks to her booming cosmetics line that Forbes said put her on track to become the youngest self-made billionaire in the United States.

Forbes compiled its 2018 list estimating pre-tax earnings from June 2017-June 2018, before deducting fees for managers, based on data from Nielsen, touring trade publication Pollstar, movie database IMDB, and interviews with industry experts and celebrities themselves.

Mayweather pulled in some $285 million in the period, largely thanks to his August 2017 comeback fight win over mixed martial arts champion Conor McGregor.

Oscar-winning star Clooney earned an estimated $239 million after selling the Casamigos tequila company he co-founded to British spirits company Diageo in June 2017. Forbes said the sale gave Clooney the best annual earnings of his 35-year career in film and television.

 

Forbes said entertainers on its 2018 Celebrity 100 list earned a combined $6.3 billion before tax, up 22 percent from last year’s list. Many of the highest earners came from celebrities leveraging their brands through side ventures and through their social media presence.

“There’s never been a more lucrative time to be famous than now, with 11 superstars earning $100 million or more over the past year,” Zack O’Malley Greenburg, senior entertainment editor at Forbes, said in a statement.

“Entertainers have found all sorts of new ways to monetize their audiences, especially with the help of social media,” he added. 

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson almost doubled his earnings from  the previous year to land in 5th place with estimated earnings of $124 million. Forbes said the earnings of the “Jumanji” and “Fast & Furious” star were the largest acting-related earning it had recorded in 20 years.

The top earner on last year’s list, musician Sean Diddy Combs, dropped to No. 32 on the current list. His earnings on the 2017 list were inflated by a tour and the sale of part of his Sean John clothing line, Forbes said.

Musicians and athletes fared well, with Irish band U2, British band Coldplay and British singer Ed Sheeran appearing in the top 10. Soccer players Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo also earned more than $100 million, Forbes said. 
…

As the United States ratchets up trade threats, China suffered a setback on Monday for its calls for international cooperation in counteracting  what it calls U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies.

 

Luca Jahier, the president of the European Economic and Social Committee, said that the European Union won’t “gang up” on America with China even if the trade bloc opposes the U.S. leader’s tariff measures.

 

Jahier said, ahead of Monday’s annual China-EU summit in Beijing, he strongly opposes protectionism, but escalating the situation would not be the appropriate response, the South China Morning Post reported.

 

Analysts say that China is probably barking up the wrong tree if it plans to seek a united trade front with European countries.

 

China’s unfair practice

 

Like the U.S., the European Union is firm in its fight against China’s unfair trade practice and intellectual property rights infringement, although it disagrees with Trump’s aggressive tariff measures, said Darson Chiu, a research fellow at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research.

 

The researcher added that there’s not much China can do to hit back but play the victim’s game internationally should the U.S. next escalate with an extra 10 percent tariffs on US$200 billion-worth of Chinese goods in two months.

 

“China only imports $130 billion in American goods [annually], so, it is already out of elbows when it comes to the imposition of retaliatory tariffs,” Chiu said, adding that any talks in China about dumping U.S. treasuries it holds as a retaliatory move will only backfire and hurt its own economy.

 

Ball in US court?

 

The ball is thus in the U.S. court, and only a poor performance in the U.S. midterm elections in November will force Trump to re-evaluate his trade strategies against China, Chiu added.

The dispute, moreover, has escalated from trade volume to the broad economic interests of both countries, said Raymond Yeung, senior economist of Greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group.

“The tension between the two countries is not simply on trade, but in anything that the Chinese government thinks happens to the U.S. economic interests” Yeung said.

 

In other words, there is yet no end in sight to Trump’s trade war with China.

 

Protracted trade war

 

In preparation for a protracted trade war, China continues to put the blame on the U.S. and play down the tariffs’ impact at home, while tightening media censorship.

 

Chinese officials had nothing but angry words before any official efforts to seek rapprochement or renew negotiations with the U.S.

 

China’s Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen, representing Beijing during the country’s policy review at the World Trade Organization last week, called Washington a “trade bully,” which should “keep its gun” off China’s head.

 

In a statement last week, China’s Ministry of Commerce argued that the U.S. practice would drag the global economy into the “cold war,” “recession trap” and “the trap of uncertainly to worsen global trade environment and industrial supply chains.”

 

Controlling the narrative

 

Chinese censors have also stepped up efforts to control the narrative and public discussion about the trade dispute.

 

Most media in China were reportedly told not to hype up the trade war or link it to stock market fluctuation, the Chinese yuan’s depreciation, or the country’s economic and financial vulnerability to avoid spreading panic.

In its editorial, state media Global Times, on Sunday, heralded “China’s advantages in a protracted trade war.”

“Some are concerned that … China seems to have no tools with which to hit back. This is a huge misconception. The tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods are meant to be a bluff,” the editorial read.

 

‘Strategic risk’

The paper called the Trump administration complacent in telling its society that the U.S. will clench an easy win and hence “against this backdrop, arrogant Washington has created a tremendous strategic risk for itself.”

 

And it concluded that “China will likely find losses lower than expected while the U.S. will be shocked by unexpected real losses.… China has to play hardball and knock the Trump administration forcibly out of its dream to conquer us.”

 

State censorship on social media appeared to have also reached its peak to silence unwanted comments since late last week.

 

On Friday, the Sino-U.S. trade war was the second top-trending censored topic on freeweibo.com.

 

The screening of critical voices continued this week with most online postings share the similar nationalistic nature.

 

Echoing the Chinese official statement, one Weibo user on Monday wrote “the U.S. is shooting itself in the foot and got so scared that it peed its pants. China will be the biggest winner.”

 

Another user said that he will always support China. “Maybe after the war [with the U.S.], we will also be able to reclaim Taiwan.”

 
…

The International Monetary Fund is warning escalating trade conflicts threaten to curb the world’s economic recovery, saying U.S. exports are especially vulnerable in the face of retaliatory tariffs other nations are imposing on them in response to President Donald Trump’s new levies on foreign imports.

The Washington-based IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook, continued to project international economic growth at 3.9 percent for this year and 2019, but said Monday “the risk of worse outcomes has increased, even for the near term.”

IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said, “Our modeling suggests that if current trade policy threats are realized and business confidence falls as a result, global output could be about 0.5 percent below current projections by 2020,” adding that the United States is “especially vulnerable.”

“As the focus of global retaliation,” he said, “the United States finds a relatively high share of its exports taxed in global markets in such a broader trade conflict.”

Trump has imposed higher tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Europe, Canada and Mexico and on an array of products from China, in all instances drawing protests from other world leaders about his actions, along with higher retaliatory levies on U.S. exports.

In addition to the growing trade disputes, the IMF concluded that other risks “have become more prominent” since its last assessment in April.

“Political uncertainty has risen in Europe, where the European Union faces fundamental political challenges regarding migration policy, fiscal governance, norms concerning the rule of law, and the euro area institutional architecture,” the IMF said.

“The terms of Brexit [Britain’s departure from the European Union] remain unsettled despite months of negotiation,” Obstfeld said.  “Prospective political transitions in Latin America over coming months add to the uncertainty.  Finally, although some geopolitical dangers may appear to be in remission, their underlying drivers in many cases are still at work.”

Despite the back-and-forth tariff increases the United States and China have imposed on each other, the IMF left as unchanged its growth projections for both countries.  It pegged the U.S. advance at 2.9 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2019, with China at 6.6 percent this year and 6.4 percent next year.

But the IMF trimmed its outlook for the 19 European countries that use the euro currency, Japan, and Britain.  The agency’s report projected 2.2 percent growth in the eurozone this year, Britain at 1.4 percent and Japan at one percent, with all three figures down two-tenths of a percentage point.

The IMF also cut its forecast for Brazil by a half percentage point to 1.8 percent and India by a tenth of a point to 7.5 percent.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 
…

U.S. President Donald Trump advised British Prime Minister Theresa May to sue the European Union instead of negotiating with the bloc, as part of her Brexit strategy.

 

“He told me I should sue the EU,” May told BBC television. “Sue the EU. Not go into negotiations — sue them.”

Her revelation about how Trump advised her ended several days of speculation about what advice the U.S. leader had offered the prime minister.

Trump said last week in an interview with The Sun newspaper that he had given May advice, but she did not follow it. The president told the newspaper ahead of his meeting with May that she “didn’t listen” to him.

“I would have done it much differently. I actually told Theresa May how to do it but she didn’t agree, she didn’t listen to me. She wanted to go a different route,” Trump said.

Trump did not reveal what advice he offered May in a press conference with her Friday. Instead, he said, “I think she found it too brutal.”

He added, “I could fully understand why she thought it was tough. And maybe someday she’ll do that. If they don’t make the right deal, she may do what I suggested, but it’s not an easy thing.”

May also told the BBC that the president had advised her not to walk away from the negotiations “because then you’re stuck.”

For the past few months, British politics have been obscured by squabbling, irritability and bravado about how, when and on what terms Britain will exit the European Union, and what the country’s relationship will be with its largest trading partner after Brexit.

Britons narrowly voted to leave the EU in a referendum in June 2016.

 

 
…