Month: October 2018

One of Donald Trump’s top economic advisers says the president is not trying to improperly influence the U.S. central bank.

The director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, spoke to the television network CNBC a day after Trump said the U.S. Federal Reserve is “loco” (crazy) for raising interest rates. On Thursday, Trump continued his attacks on the central bank, calling the Fed “out of control,” but denied he has plans to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell. 

Kudlow said, “We all know the Fed is independent. The president is not dictating policy to the Fed.”  

The Federal Reserve slashed the benchmark interest rate nearly to zero in an emergency, temporary effort to boost economic growth hurt by a severe recession 10 years ago. Since then, the economy has stopped shrinking and resumed growth, unemployment has fallen to historic lows, and wages and inflation have begun to rise modestly.  

Low interest rates boost growth by making it cheaper for businesses and families to borrow money to build factories or buy homes.  Economists warn that keeping interest rates too low for too long could spark strong inflation that pushes up prices and wages so sharply that they damage the economy.  

To fend off inflation, the Fed has been slowly raising rates a quarter of a percentage point at a time. They are expected to continue this effort to gradually return rates to their historic averages.

A common conflict grows out of the fact that incumbent elected politicians get the blame if the economy is not growing strongly. That gives presidents and others a political incentive to keep interest rates low, regardless of the consequences.  

That is why central banks in the United States and elsewhere are often set up to insulate them from political pressure so they can make decisions on their economic merit rather than potential popularity.

When the independence of a central bank is seriously questioned, markets and currencies can fall because investors lose confidence in the economic management of a nation.

U.S. stock markets fell sharply Wednesday amid worries about rising interest rates, growing tensions over trade and other issues.  Some Asian and European markets took losses Thursday.  In Thursday’s U.S. trading, some key markets stabilized, and one recovered some ground. 
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The world’s longest commercial flight, a 19-hour journey from Singapore to New York, took off Thursday from Changi Airport.

The Singapore Airlines Airbus A350-900ULR will touch down at Newark Liberty International Airport early Friday after traveling 15,350 kilometers.

Singapore Airlines previously flew the same route, but abandoned it in 2013 due to high oil prices and the gas-guzzling four-engine aircraft used. 

Singapore Airlines is offering no coach seats, instead stocking the plane with 67 business-class spots and 94 premium economy. Shortly before takeoff, premium economy tickets were going for more than $2,100.

The Airbus A350-900ULR (“Ultra Long Range”) is a new two-engine plane with far greater range and fuel capacity than other commercial airliners. In addition, it has several features that aid passenger comfort during the trip, like hospital-grade air filters, improved pressurization and humidity, and customizable lighting that eases the transition between time zones. 

Singapore Airlines says it plans to add several flights from Singapore to Los Angeles in November, bringing the total number of weekly flights to the United States to 53.
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Mat Beren and his friends used to drive by the vast greenhouses of southern British Columbia and joke about how much weed they could grow there.

Years later, it’s no joke. The tomato and pepper plants that once filled some of those greenhouses have been replaced with a new cash crop: marijuana. Beren and other formerly illicit growers are helping cultivate it. The buyers no longer are unlawful dealers or dubious medical dispensaries; it’s the Canadian government.

On Oct. 17, Canada becomes the second and largest country with a legal national marijuana marketplace. Uruguay launched legal sales last year, after several years of planning.

It’s a profound social shift promised by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and fueled by a desire to bring the black market into a regulated, taxed system after nearly a century of prohibition.

It also stands in contrast to the United States, where the federal government outlaws marijuana while most states allow medical or recreational use for people 21 and older. Canada’s national approach has allowed for unfettered industry banking, inter-province shipments of cannabis, online ordering, postal delivery and billions of dollars in investment; national prohibition in the U.S. has stifled greater industry expansion there.

Hannah Hetzer, who tracks international marijuana policy for the New York-based Drug Policy Alliance, called Canada’s move “extremely significant,” given that about 25 countries have already legalized the medical use of marijuana or decriminalized possession of small amounts of pot. A few, including Mexico, have expressed an interest in regulating recreational use.

“It’s going to change the global debate on drug policy,” she said. “There’s no other country immediately considering legalizing the nonmedical use of cannabis, but I think Canada will provide almost the permission for other countries to move forward.”

At least 109 legal pot shops are expected to open across the nation of 37 million people next Wednesday, with many more to come, according to an Associated Press survey of the provinces. For now, they’ll offer dried flower, capsules, tinctures and seeds, with sales of marijuana-infused foods and concentrates expected to begin next year.

Overseeing distribution

The provinces are tasked with overseeing marijuana distribution. For some, including British Columbia and Alberta, that means buying cannabis from licensed producers, storing it in warehouses and then shipping it to retail shops and online customers. Others, like Newfoundland, are having growers ship directly to stores or through the mail.

Federal taxes will total $1 per gram or 10 percent, whichever is more. The feds will keep one-fourth of that and return the rest to the provinces, which can add their own markups. Consumers also will pay local sales taxes.

Some provinces have chosen to operate their own stores, like state-run liquor stores in the U.S., while others have OK’d private outlets. Most are letting residents grow up to four plants at home.

Canada’s most populous province, Ontario, won’t have any stores open until next April, after the new conservative government scrapped a plan for state-owned stores in favor of privately run shops. Until then, the only legal option for Ontario residents will be mail delivery — a prospect that didn’t sit well with longtime pot fan Ryan Bose, 48, a Lyft driver.

“Potheads are notoriously very impatient. When they want their weed, they want their weed,” he said after buying a half-ounce at an illicit medical marijuana dispensary in Toronto. “Waiting one or two three days for it by mail, I’m not sure how many will want to do that.”

British Columbia, home of the “B.C. Bud” long cherished by American pot connoisseurs, has had a prevalent marijuana culture since the 1970s, after U.S. draft-dodgers from the Vietnam War settled on Vancouver Island and in the province’s southeastern mountains. But a change in government last year slowed cannabis distribution plans there, too, and it will have just one store ready next Wednesday: a state-run shop in Kamloops, a few hours’ drive northeast of Vancouver. By contrast, Alberta expects to open 17 next week and 250 within a year.

Unlawful operations

No immediate crackdown is expected for the dozens of illicit-but-tolerated medical marijuana dispensaries operating in British Columbia, though officials eventually plan to close any without a license. Many are expected to apply for private retail licenses, and some have sued, saying they have a right to remain open.

British Columbia’s ministry of public safety is forming a team of 44 inspectors to root out unlawful operations, seize product and issue fines. They’ll have responsibility for a province of 4.7 million people and an area twice as large as California, where the black market still dwarfs the legal market that arrived in January.

Chris Clay, a longtime Canadian medical marijuana activist, runs Warmland Centre dispensary in an old shopping mall in Mill Bay, on Vancouver Island. He is closing the store Monday until he gets a license; he feared continuing to operate post-legalization would jeopardize his chances. Some of his eight staff members will likely have to file for unemployment benefits in the meantime.

“That will be frustrating, but overall I’m thrilled,” Clay said. “I’ve been waiting decades for this.”

Licensed growers

The federal government has licensed 120 growers, some of them enormous. Canopy Growth, which recently received an investment of $4 billion from Constellation Brands, whose holdings include Corona beer, Robert Mondavi wines and Black Velvet whiskey, is approved for 5.6 million square feet (520,000 square meters) of production space across Canada. Its two biggest greenhouses are near the U.S. border in British Columbia.

Beren, a 23-year cannabis grower, is a Canopy consultant.

“We used to joke around all the time when we’d go to Vancouver and drive by the big greenhouses on the highway,” he said. “Like, ‘Oh man, someday. It’d be so awesome if we could grow cannabis in one of these greenhouses.’ We drive by now, and we’re like, ‘Oh, we’re here.”‘

Next to Canopy’s greenhouse in Delta is another huge facility, Pure Sunfarms, a joint venture between a longtime tomato grower, Village Farms International, and a licensed medical marijuana producer, Emerald Health Therapeutics. Workers pulled out the remaining tomato plants last winter and got to work renovating the greenhouse as a marijuana farm, installing equipment that includes lights and accordion-shaped charcoal vents to control the plant’s odor. By 2020, the venture expects to move more than 165,000 pounds (75,000 kg) of bud per year.

Some longtime illegal growers who operate on a much smaller scale worry they won’t get licensed or will get steamrolled by much larger producers. Provinces can issue “micro-producer” licenses. But in British Columbia, where small-time pot growers helped sustain rural economies as the mining and forestry industries cratered, the application period hasn’t opened yet.

Sarah Campbell of the Craft Cannabis Association of BC said many small operators envision a day when they can host visitors who can tour their operations and sample the product, as wineries do.

Officials say they intend to accommodate craft growers but first need to ensure there is enough cannabis to meet demand when legalization arrives. Hiccups are inevitable, they say, and tweaks will be needed.

“Leaving it to each province to decide what’s best for their communities and their citizens is something that’s good,” said Gene Makowsky, the Saskatchewan minister who oversees the province’s Liquor and Gaming Authority. “We’ll be able to see if each law is successful or where we can do better in certain areas.”

British Columbia safety minister Mike Farnworth said he learned two primary lessons by visiting Oregon and Washington, U.S. states with recreational marijuana. One was not to look at the industry as an immediate cash cow, as it will take time to displace the black market. The other was to start with relatively strict regulations and then loosen them as needed, because it’s much harder to tighten them after the fact.

Legalization will be a process more than a date, Farnworth said.

“Oct. 17th is actually not going to look much different than it does today,” he said.
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U.S. stocks posted their worst loss since February on Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average finishing the day down more than 800 points.

The losses were widespread as bond yields remained high after steep increases last week. Companies that have been the biggest winners on the market the last few years, including technology companies and retailers, suffered steep declines.

The Dow gave up nearly 828 points, or 3.15 percent, to 25,600. The Nasdaq composite, which has a high concentration of technology stocks, tumbled 316 points, or 4.1 percent, to 7,422.

The S&P 500 index sank 95 points, or 3.3 percent, to 2,786, its fifth straight drop. That hasn’t happened since right before the 2016 presidential election. Every one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished down for the day.

Microsoft dropped 5.4 percent to $106.16. Amazon skidded 6.2 percent to $1,755.25. Industrial and internet companies also fell hard. Boeing lost 4.7 percent to $367.47 and Alphabet, Google’s parent company, gave up 5 percent to $1,081.22.

After a long stretch of relative calm, the stock market has suffered sharp losses over the last week as bond yields surged.

Squeezed margins

Gina Martin Adams, the chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, said investors are concerned about the big increase in yields, which makes it more expensive to borrow money. She said they also fear that company profit margins will be squeezed by rising costs, including the price of oil.

Paint and coatings maker PPG gave a weak third-quarter forecast Monday, while earlier, Pepsi and Conagra’s quarterly reports reflected increased expenses.

“Both companies highlighted rising costs, not only input costs but increasing operating expenses [and] marketing expenses,” she said.

Insurance companies dropped as Hurricane Michael continued to gather strength and came ashore in Florida bringing winds of up to 155 mph. Berkshire Hathaway dipped 4.8 percent to $213.10 and reinsurer Everest Re slid 5.1 percent to $217.73.

Luxury retailers tumbled. Tiffany plunged 10.2 percent to $110.38 and Ralph Lauren fell 8.4 percent to $116.96.

The biggest driver for the market over the last week has been interest rates, which began spurting higher following several encouraging reports on the economy. Higher rates can slow economic growth, erode corporate profits and make investors less willing to pay high prices for stocks. 

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.22 percent from 3.20 percent late Tuesday after earlier touching 3.24 percent. It was at just 3.05 percent early last week.

Technology and internet-based companies are known for their high profit margins, and many have reported explosive growth in recent years, with corresponding gains in their stock prices. Adams, of Bloomberg Intelligence, said investors have concerns about their future profitability, too.

That’s helped make technology stocks more volatile in the last few months.

“As stocks go up, tech goes up more than the stock market. As stocks go down, tech goes down more than the stock market,” she said.
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The Treasury Department has issued new rules on foreign investments into American companies that will give the government more power to block foreign transactions on national security grounds.

The rules represent the latest escalation in an intensifying economic conflict between the United States and China. It will implement a program for tougher reviews of foreign acquisitions that Congress approved this summer.

The new regulations will require foreign investors to alert a Treasury-led interagency committee to all deals that would give the foreign investors access to critical technology covering 27 industries, including semiconductors, telecommunications and defense.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says the new rules will “address specific risks to U.S. critical technology.”
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Dark, dirty and slow, Zimbabwe’s trains, like much else in the impoverished southern African country, have seen better days.

Once the preferred mode of transport for most Zimbabweans, the state-run rail service mirrors the decline in the country’s economic fortunes during the last two decades under the leadership of former President Robert Mugabe.

Gilbert Mthinzima Ndlovu, a veteran of Zimbabwe’s 1970s independence war and a security guard at the National Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ) for 35 years, yearns for the old days when trains were full and arrived on time.

“Times are different now as we have few passengers,” the off-duty Ndlovu told Reuters as he rested in a badly lit first class cabin during the journey from the capital Harare to his home in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second city.

Now the 10-hour journey can take 16 hours, he said.

Not surprising, then, that many Zimbabweans prefer to make the 440 km (273 mile) journey by bus or public taxi in around five hours than have to endure a cold overnight train ride – even if at $10 the train ride costs only half as much.

The train carriages often lack lighting and water, and the toilets are filthy. The signalling and information systems are often vandalized and some tracks overgrown with grass and weeds because they have not been used in years.

NRZ is now trying to improve its fortunes.

Last year South African logistics group Transnet won a $400 million joint bid to recapitalize NRZ and fix some of the problems, including acquiring and refurbishing carriages.

But for now passengers have to make do with a broken train service.

“Today you can’t even buy food from the train and all the coaches are filthy, with no water and the lights are not working,” said one passenger who declined to give his name.
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Last month, Patrick Ho, a former Hong Kong official fighting foreign bribery charges in New York, thought he had finally received a break.

In a dramatic move in the high-profile bribery case, prosecutors on Sept. 14 dropped all criminal charges against Cheikh Gadio, a former Senegalese foreign minister they had accused of helping Ho bribe African officials.

Arguing that the government’s move undermined its case against Ho, Ho’s lawyers urged a federal judge in New York to release their client from a federal jail. 

But the presiding judge, Loretta Preska, wasn’t buying it. She dismissed the motion, Ho’s fifth unsuccessful request for bail. And prosecutors said Gadio has agreed to cooperate, expressing confidence that his testimony against Ho will strengthen their case. 

“(Far) from weakening the case, Gadio’s testimony will provide substantial evidence of the defendant’s guilt,” prosecutors wrote in a court filing. 

Left largely unnoticed in the U.S., the corruption case against Ho has sent shockwaves across Asia, putting the spotlight on an open secret in global business circles — rampant bribery of foreign governments by Chinese companies seeking business deals around the world.    

China has largely ignored the problem, according to China experts.  While the government of President Xi Jinping has launched a much-publicized domestic anticorruption campaign, experts say Chinese authorities have yet to bring a single foreign bribery case against a Chinese company or executive.  

Ho has denied any wrongdoing.  

Ho, 69, and Gadio, 62 were arrested in New York last November and charged as part of a conspiracy to bribe African officials on behalf of CEFC China Energy, a Shanghai-based energy conglomerate with ties to the country’s military. 

At the time, Ho headed China Energy Fund Committee, a Virginia and Hong Kong-based NGO funded by CEFC China Energy, while Gadio ran a business consulting firm when he was a member of Senegal’s parliament. 

In one of two bribery schemes, prosecutors alleged that Ho and Gadio met on the sidelines of the United Nations in late 2014 to engage in a conspiracy to pay a $2 million cash bribe to Idriss Deby, the president of Chad.The payment was offered in exchange for helping CEFC Energy’s entry into Chad’s rich energy sector, according to prosecutors. 

Gadio allegedly introduced Ho to Deby and served as a middleman during discussions between the Chinese executives and Chadian officials. The complaint did not make clear whether any payment was made to Deby, but it did say that Gadio received $400,000 for his services. 

In the second scheme, Ho allegedly paid a bribe of $500,000 to Sam Kutesa, the Ugandan foreign minister, in 2016 in exchange for Kutesa’s help in helping CEFC Energy gain business contracts in Uganda’s financial and energy sectors, according to the criminal complaint.The bribe was paid after Kutesa finished his one-year term as president of the U.N. General Assembly and returned to Uganda. 

While the charges against Gadio were never presented to a grand jury, Ho was indicted on multiple counts of foreign bribery and money laundering. 

Ho pleaded not guilty.  

Timothy Belevetz, a former federal prosecutor now a partner at the Holland & Knight law firm, said bribery cases under the foreign bribery law known as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act rarely go to trial.

“This is an opportunity for law to be made,” Belevetz said. 

FCPA was passed in 1977 in response to disclosures that U.S. companies were bribing foreign officials to secure business deals. The law has since been amended, giving the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission broad jurisdiction over foreign companies that have subsidiaries in the United States or trade on U.S. stock exchanges. 

In recent years, the Justice Department, working with international law enforcement agencies, has brought a growing number of corruption cases against foreign companies and executives paying bribes to foreign government officials.

While the Justice Department has previously charged U.S. and European companies with paying bribes to Chinese officials, never before has it tried the representative of a Chinese company on charges of bribing foreign officials in exchange for business contracts.

At the heart of the Ho bribery case is the question of whether any payment promised or made to the African officials was a bribe, as prosecutors call it, or a charitable donation, as defense lawyers put it. 

As Ho’s Nov. 5 trial approaches, prosecutors have revealed how Gadio’s testimony, as well as evidence of Ho’s business dealings with Iran and alleged arms sales to African nations, will help their case at trial.

In a recent court filing, prosecutors wrote that Gadio will testify that Ho handed $2 million in cash, hidden in a gift box, to Deby, and only after Deby “refused to accept this obvious bribe” did Ho draft a letter pledging $2 million to “charitable causes” in Chad. 

Gadio will also tell a jury that Ho never asked him about the status of the donation, indicating Ho had no “interest in doing charitable works in Chad.”

“This expected testimony considerably strengthens the government’s proof beyond the already-strong case reflected in the detailed Complaint,” prosecutors wrote. 

Prosecutors have also indicated in recent days that they intend to introduce evidence of Ho’s involvement in other corrupt actions.

In a court filing last week, prosecutors disclosed they have evidence that shows Ho had offered a bribe to John Ashe, a diplomat from Antigua and Barbuda who served as president of the U.N. General Assembly the year before Kutesa held the post. (Ashe was implicated in another corruption case involving a Chinese national but he died in 2016 before the case went to trial). 

Prosecutors also plan to introduce evidence of Ho’s interest in doing business with Iran while the country was under U.S. sanctions, and brokering arms sales to Libya and Qatar. 

In an October 2014 email, one of several cited in court documents, Ho suggested that CEFC China serve as a “middleman” to help Iran access funds it kept in a Chinese bank under U.S. sanctions to pay a Hong Kong bank for precious metals.

The complaint had hinted at Ho’s willingness to help Chad procure weapons from China, but new government filings allege that Ho’s interest in arms dealing extended beyond Chad. 

In March 2015, according to an intercepted email, Ho asked an unidentified intermediary to send him a list of weapons and military equipment requested by Libya so that “we can execute that right away.”

A month later, Ho emailed the intermediary. “Qatar needs toys quite urgently. Their chief is coming to China, and we hope to give them a piece of good news.”

Prosecutors say they want to introduce the emails as background evidence “to show the development and nature of the relationship” between Ho and Gadio. 

Belevetz said that as with other white-collar criminal cases, the case against Ho will turn more on documents such as emails and wire transfer records than testimonies of witnesses. 

In white-collar cases, “you often have a paper trail that shows what was said,” Belevetz said.

Edward Kim, one of Ho’s lead attorneys, declined to comment.

Sean Hecker, Gadio’s lawyer, said in a statement to VOA, “Dr. Gadio looks forward to continuing to cooperate with U.S. authorities before returning to Senegal to continue his service to the Senegalese people and the important pursuit of establishing peace and security across the Sahel Region.”
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Ireland’s finance minister boosted budget day spending for the second year in a row as the government warned of economic “carnage” if neighboring Britain crashes out of the European Union without a divorce deal.

Having already pre-committed 2.6 billion euros ($2.99 billion) on increased public sector and planned infrastructure spending for next year, Paschal Donohoe, in Tuesday’s annual budget speech, almost doubled the remaining pot to 1.5 billion euros to dish out on further tax cuts and spending increases.

The state’s fiscal watchdog warned ahead of the budget that the booming economy did not need such additional stimulus.

But with an election potentially looming and the fast-growing economy exacerbating deficits in areas such as housing, a scrapping of a reduced VAT rate for the hospitality sector mostly funded the extra 700 million euro of spending.

That allowed the government to keep giving workers a small annual tax break it has promised to continue in future budgets, reverse welfare cuts imposed during a series of austerity budgets a decade ago, and boost infrastructure spending. 

“The shared progress we have made is real. However the risks and challenges that we now face are equally real,” Donohoe told parliament in a speech that went long past the allotted hour as he reeled off measure after measure but also struck a tone of caution with 25 different mentions of Brexit.

Donohoe said the government’s “central case” was that Britain and the European Union would reached a Brexit deal in the coming weeks, but the possibility of a no deal had influenced the financial decisions made.

Foreign Minister Simon Coveney warned of “carnage” if Britain crashed left without a deal, though he said that would mostly be felt by Britain, with Ireland likely to benefit from “huge solidarity” from fellow EU member states.

A further round of “Brexit-proofing” measures, which have had mixed results to date, were announced in the budget, including a 300 million euro loan scheme for small and medium sized businesses and the agriculture and food sectors to invest in future growth.

Balanced budget 

Donohoe said the best preparation for Brexit was responsible budgeting and he intended to balance the state’s books for the first time in more than a decade next year, an improvement on the tiny deficit originally planned but still not the surplus the central bank says should already be running.

The state’s independent fiscal watchdog, set up in response to the years of reckless spending that left the exchequer massively exposed when the 2008 financial crisis hit, voiced concerns over the “not very good budgetary practice” of recent years.

It is particularly worried by successive years of spending coming in over budget, which it fears will happen again next year.

Hotel and restaurant owners were unhappy at their return to the standard 13.5 percent VAT from the 9 percent rate introduced in 2011 to boost the then struggling sector. In a report in July, Ireland’s finance department said the lower rate had become a “significant deadweight.”

“#Budget19 will be known as an election budget paid for by the tourism industry,” Adrian Cummins, head of the Restaurants Association of Ireland, tweeted.

Ireland’s betting tax was also doubled to 2 percent, hitting the country’s largest operator, Paddy Power Betfair, which said it would have cost it 20 million pounds  ($26 million) this year. Its shares closed down 5 percent.

Donohoe outlined his planned “exit tax” for firms that move assets or migrate their tax residence from Ireland, setting it in line with the corporate tax rate of 12.5 percent but surprising business by introducing it immediately and not by 2020 when Ireland was obliged to come in line with EU rules.

A company would be liable to pay the exit tax on gains built up in Ireland from any asset — such as intellectual property — it planned to move out of the scope of the Irish tax authorities. The measure is part of a new EU Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive.

The budget will be the last before the next parliamentary election if Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael-led minority government cannot agree an extension to its “confidence and supply” deal with the largest opposition party, Fianna Fail.

They agreed to open talks on Tuesday but while Varadkar said he wanted to complete the review and potential renewal by the end of the month, Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin saw talks lasting until until Christmas.
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