More Losses Leave US Markets With Worst Week in 7-Plus Years

After almost 10 years, Wall Street’s rally looks like it’s ending. 

Another day of big losses Friday left the U.S. market with its worst week in more than seven years. All of the major indexes have lost 16 to 26 percent from their highs this summer and fall. Barring huge gains during the upcoming holiday period, this will be the worst December for stocks since 1931. 

 

There hasn’t been one major shock that has sent stocks plunging. The U.S. economy has been growing since 2009, and most experts think it will keep expanding for now. But it’s likely to do so at a slower pace. 

 

As they look ahead, investors are finding more and more reasons to worry. The U.S. has been locked in a trade dispute with China for nine months. Economies in Europe and China are slowing. And rising interest rates in the U.S. could slow its economy even more. 

Dreadful month

 

Stocks are now headed for their single worst month since October 2008, when the market was being battered by the global financial crisis. 

 

December is generally the strongest time of the year for U.S. stocks. Traders often talk about a “Santa rally” that adds to the year’s gains as people adjust their portfolios in anticipation of the year to come.  

  

But not this year. 

 

No sector of the market has been spared. Large multinational companies join smaller domestic ones in their losses. And huge high-tech companies, once the best-performing stocks on the market, are now leading the way lower.  

  

Technology’s huge popularity during the recent boom years made it even more vulnerable as investors’ moods turn sour. Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google’s parent company, Alphabet, have seen their market values fall by hundreds of billions of dollars. 

 

“If you live by momentum, you die by momentum,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA. 

 

The Nasdaq composite, which contains a high concentration of tech stocks, has sunk almost 22 percent from its record high in late August. Several big technology companies, notably Facebook and Twitter, have also suffered as a result of scandals over matters such as data privacy and election meddling, and traders worry that the industry will face greater government regulation that could increase costs and affect their profits. 

 

The major U.S. indexes fell 7 percent this week and they’ve sunk more than 12 percent in December. 

Global slowdown

 

Investors around the world have grown increasingly pessimistic about the global economy’s prospects over the next few years. It’s widely expected to slow down, but traders are concerned the cooling might be worse than they previously believed.  

  

After a sharp early gain Friday, the S&P 500 index retreated 50.84 points, or 2.1 percent, to 2,416.58. The S&P 500, the benchmark for many index funds, has fallen 17.5 percent from its high in September. 

 

The Dow Jones industrial average sank 414.23 points, or 1.8 percent, to 22,445.37. The Nasdaq skidded 195.41 points, or 3 percent, to 6,332.99. The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks lost 33.92 points, or 2.6 percent, to 1,292.09. 

 

European markets rose slightly and Asian markets were mixed.  

  

The price of oil has also fallen sharply in recent weeks, down 40 percent from the high it reached in October, amid concerns over a glut in the market and the slowing economy. 

 

On Friday the price of U.S. crude slipped 0.6 percent to $45.59 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, the standard for international oil prices, fell 1 percent to $53.82 a barrel in London. 

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Canadian Economy Exceeds Expectations in October

The Canadian economy expanded by a greater-than-expected 0.3 percent in October from September, pushed higher by strength in manufacturing, finance and insurance, Statistics Canada data indicated Friday.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted monthly GDP would increase by 0.2 percent. Fifteen of the 20 industrial sectors — which Statscan says represents around 80 percent of the economy — posted gains.

The release could well be a pleasant surprise for Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, who complained earlier this month that economic data heading into the fourth quarter were weaker than expected.

The manufacturing sector grew by 0.7 percent on higher output of machinery, primary metals, chemicals and food. The finance and insurance sector advanced by 0.9 percent on increased activity in bond and money markets.

Wholesale trade grew by 1.0 percent, while utilities were up 1.5 percent on unseasonably cold weather that contributed to higher electricity demand for heating purposes.

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Canadian Economy Exceeds Expectations in October

The Canadian economy expanded by a greater-than-expected 0.3 percent in October from September, pushed higher by strength in manufacturing, finance and insurance, Statistics Canada data indicated Friday.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted monthly GDP would increase by 0.2 percent. Fifteen of the 20 industrial sectors — which Statscan says represents around 80 percent of the economy — posted gains.

The release could well be a pleasant surprise for Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, who complained earlier this month that economic data heading into the fourth quarter were weaker than expected.

The manufacturing sector grew by 0.7 percent on higher output of machinery, primary metals, chemicals and food. The finance and insurance sector advanced by 0.9 percent on increased activity in bond and money markets.

Wholesale trade grew by 1.0 percent, while utilities were up 1.5 percent on unseasonably cold weather that contributed to higher electricity demand for heating purposes.

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Nigerian Energy Sector’s Crippling Debts Delay Next Power Plant

Plans to build another privately-financed power station in Nigeria to help end decades of chronic blackouts have been delayed because of concerns about persistent shortfalls in payments for electricity across the sector.

The $1.1 billion Qua Iboe Power Plant being developed by energy infrastructure company Black Rhino and the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation won’t get a green light by the end of 2018 as planned and it was unclear when the deal might close, NNPC told Reuters.

The delay is a setback for Africa’s biggest oil producer where 80 million people don’t have access to grid power supplies and it exposes the difficulties in attracting private investment to a sector that successive governments have tried to reform.

The uncertainty surrounding the 540-megawatt Qua Iboe plant stems from the difficulties Nigeria’s first privately-financed independent power project — the 460-megawatt Azura-Edo plant — has encountered since it came online this year.

Azura was meant to be a model for a string of independent power plants financed by international investors. To give them confidence to invest in the first major plant since the power sector was privatized in 2013, the World Bank provided a safeguard known as a partial risk guarantee — meaning the lender would step in if Nigeria defaulted on payments.

Under the current system, the government-owned Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading company (NBET) buys power from generators and passes it on to distributors who then collect money from customers and reimburse NBET.

But because NBET is not paid in full for the power it buys, generators such as Azura have been partly reimbursed from an emergency central bank loan fund created to keep the sector afloat.

NNPC told Reuters one of the reasons the Qua Iboe plant (QIPP), which is due to be built in the southern state of Akwa Ibom, had been delayed was because NBET appeared reluctant to commit to new projects to avoid increasing its liabilities.

“The continued delay relates to the current cashflow challenges at NBET, as highlighted by the Azura project,” a spokesman for NNPC said in an emailed statement. “This concern is justified by the fact that NBET is yet to see an improvement in collections from DISCOs [distribution companies].”

NBET did not immediately respond to a request for comment on NNPC’s statement about QIPP.

NBET chief executive Marilyn Amobi told Reuters in November that it was hard for the company to work because of poor infrastructure and shortfalls in cash from distributors needed to reimburse generators.

“You don’t have the infrastructure, you don’t have the financial position to do it, you don’t actually have the products, and you don’t have the grid,” she said.

World Bank conditions

NNPC said another problem for QIPP was that the World Bank had made a partial risk guarantee, similar to the one that helped Azura attract investors, contingent on the government’s implementation of an agreed power sector recovery plan.

“In theory it is okay, but the risk is there are delays in the approvals which may impact QIPP,” NNPC said. Power ministry officials and the World Bank have been in talks about long-term structural changes needed to trigger the release of a $1 billion loan to help pay for reforms.

A World Bank spokeswoman said the loan had yet to be submitted to its board for approval and that the Washington-based lender considered the recovery plan to be “critical for de-risking the sector for private investments.”

Problems that need to be tackled include decaying infrastructure, mounting debts, low tariffs for electricity and a dilapidated government-owned grid that would collapse if all the country’s power generators operated at full tilt.

Even though NBET has an agreement to buy 13 gigawatts (GW) from power generators, the system can only cope with distributors sending out an average of 4 GW, according to the ministry of power.

The World Bank spokeswoman confirmed any future guarantees for independent power plants (IPPs) would be linked to the plan’s implementation – because the economic and financial viability of generation capacity expansion was at risk.

A spokeswoman for Black Rhino, which is one of private equity firm Blackstone’s portfolio companies, declined to comment on NNPC’s announcement of a delay to QIPP. When the project was unveiled, Nigerian cement giant Dangote Group was named as a joint venture partner – along with Black Rhino and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation.

But a Dangote executive told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the company, owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, had pulled out.

“The huge debt level, and, the fact the IPPs are not making profits, is another reason for prospective investors to be deterred,” he said. “Further, collecting revenue from the distribution companies is also becoming a mirage.”

A Dangote Group spokesman declined to comment on the delay to QIPP, or whether the company had pulled out.

‘Illiquid and insolvent’

The payment problems in the Nigerian power sector were thrust into the spotlight in March when four generating companies filed a lawsuit against the government and Azura.

To ensure the generating companies were paid in full throughout 2017 and 2018, the government created a 701 billion naira ($2.3 billion) loan fund at the central bank to guarantee payments. When the fund was established in 2017, Azura wasn’t part of the calculations.

But when Azura started producing electricity, the fund was also used to pay the new plant to ensure the terms of loan deals guaranteed by the World Bank were not breached. As a result, the other companies were told they would only receive 80 percent of the sums owed, according to the lawsuit filed in March.

The four energy companies want the fund to reimburse them in full, rather than allocating part of the money to the new plant. Azura declined to comment on payments for power generated.

“If the central bank wasn’t paying, the system would collapse,” an official at a multilateral lender said on condition of anonymity. “Qua Iboe IPP would enter a system that is illiquid and insolvent. The liquidity is being provided by the central bank.”

The official said QIPP would need the same partial risk guarantee Azura received to get off the ground, but the handling of payments to Azura by the Nigerian authorities so far meant there was little appetite to offer the same support.

Fola Fagbule, senior vice president and head of advisory at Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) — one of the multilateral lenders that invested in Azura — agreed that the Qua Iboe project would struggle without payment guarantees.

“What you have is an insolvent system,” he said. “It is really difficult to make a case for a project on that scale.”

A person with direct knowledge of QIPP who declined to be named said Azura’s experience was damaging international investors’ view of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation.

“There has to be some understanding of how the sector is going to be able to afford new electrons coming into the grid,” the person said. “[Those involved] do not want QIPP to build a project that could just end up in a default situation.”

‘Knotty issues’

Nigeria’s privatized power sector typically does not use meters to provide invoices, bill collections are low and energy tariffs have remained fixed for three years, meaning customers receive unsustainably cheap electricity.

The effect, say industry experts, is that electricity distribution companies recover so little revenue from customers that they pay less than a third of what they owe to generating companies – and that’s why debts have ballooned.

Sunday Oduntan, spokesman for the Association of Nigerian Electricity Distributors, said debt levels in the sector were caused by the artificial suppression of tariffs. He said there was a 1.3 trillion naira ($4.2 billion) market shortfall that meant distributors were unable to invest in improvements.

“You cannot be selling a product below cost price and expect high remittance. The shortfall in the sector is because of the lack of a cost-reflective tariff,” said Oduntan, who speaks on behalf of Nigeria’s 11 electricity distribution companies.

Debts across the sector partly stem from a currency crisis that took hold in 2016, just months after Azura secured its financing. The bulk of power company costs are in U.S. dollars but customers pay for power in naira.

The naira lost about 30 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar in June 2016 but the devaluation was not factored into a government tariff structure that has remained unchanged. Louis Edozien, permanent secretary in the ministry of power, told Reuters there was evidence tariffs must rise, but it was also the responsibility of distributors to improve their collections, partly through better metering and infrastructure.

As for the future of QIPP, the state oil company said it would take six to eight months from whenever NBET executes an agreement to purchase power from the plant before a final investment decision could be taken.

The NNPC spokesman said there were a number of other “knotty issues”, including the completion of a transmission line from the project site. He said QIPP had now agreed in a major concession to pay $20 million for it to be finished.

He also said there was a disagreement between QIPP and the central bank about the exchange rate at which power producers could buy U.S. dollars with naira. He said this had been escalated to the minister of finance.

With the $1 billion World Bank power sector loan on hold for now, the government is considering putting another 600 billion naira into the central bank fund to pay generators when the initial amount runs out early next year, sources said.

It was not clear how the central bank loans to the sector would be repaid.

Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele told Reuters that payments from the fund could be made up to February and that the bank was holding talks with World Bank officials.

“The loan negotiations are still in progress with no terminal date yet fixed,” the power ministry’s Edozien said.

($1 = 306.6000 naira)

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Nigerian Energy Sector’s Crippling Debts Delay Next Power Plant

Plans to build another privately-financed power station in Nigeria to help end decades of chronic blackouts have been delayed because of concerns about persistent shortfalls in payments for electricity across the sector.

The $1.1 billion Qua Iboe Power Plant being developed by energy infrastructure company Black Rhino and the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation won’t get a green light by the end of 2018 as planned and it was unclear when the deal might close, NNPC told Reuters.

The delay is a setback for Africa’s biggest oil producer where 80 million people don’t have access to grid power supplies and it exposes the difficulties in attracting private investment to a sector that successive governments have tried to reform.

The uncertainty surrounding the 540-megawatt Qua Iboe plant stems from the difficulties Nigeria’s first privately-financed independent power project — the 460-megawatt Azura-Edo plant — has encountered since it came online this year.

Azura was meant to be a model for a string of independent power plants financed by international investors. To give them confidence to invest in the first major plant since the power sector was privatized in 2013, the World Bank provided a safeguard known as a partial risk guarantee — meaning the lender would step in if Nigeria defaulted on payments.

Under the current system, the government-owned Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading company (NBET) buys power from generators and passes it on to distributors who then collect money from customers and reimburse NBET.

But because NBET is not paid in full for the power it buys, generators such as Azura have been partly reimbursed from an emergency central bank loan fund created to keep the sector afloat.

NNPC told Reuters one of the reasons the Qua Iboe plant (QIPP), which is due to be built in the southern state of Akwa Ibom, had been delayed was because NBET appeared reluctant to commit to new projects to avoid increasing its liabilities.

“The continued delay relates to the current cashflow challenges at NBET, as highlighted by the Azura project,” a spokesman for NNPC said in an emailed statement. “This concern is justified by the fact that NBET is yet to see an improvement in collections from DISCOs [distribution companies].”

NBET did not immediately respond to a request for comment on NNPC’s statement about QIPP.

NBET chief executive Marilyn Amobi told Reuters in November that it was hard for the company to work because of poor infrastructure and shortfalls in cash from distributors needed to reimburse generators.

“You don’t have the infrastructure, you don’t have the financial position to do it, you don’t actually have the products, and you don’t have the grid,” she said.

World Bank conditions

NNPC said another problem for QIPP was that the World Bank had made a partial risk guarantee, similar to the one that helped Azura attract investors, contingent on the government’s implementation of an agreed power sector recovery plan.

“In theory it is okay, but the risk is there are delays in the approvals which may impact QIPP,” NNPC said. Power ministry officials and the World Bank have been in talks about long-term structural changes needed to trigger the release of a $1 billion loan to help pay for reforms.

A World Bank spokeswoman said the loan had yet to be submitted to its board for approval and that the Washington-based lender considered the recovery plan to be “critical for de-risking the sector for private investments.”

Problems that need to be tackled include decaying infrastructure, mounting debts, low tariffs for electricity and a dilapidated government-owned grid that would collapse if all the country’s power generators operated at full tilt.

Even though NBET has an agreement to buy 13 gigawatts (GW) from power generators, the system can only cope with distributors sending out an average of 4 GW, according to the ministry of power.

The World Bank spokeswoman confirmed any future guarantees for independent power plants (IPPs) would be linked to the plan’s implementation – because the economic and financial viability of generation capacity expansion was at risk.

A spokeswoman for Black Rhino, which is one of private equity firm Blackstone’s portfolio companies, declined to comment on NNPC’s announcement of a delay to QIPP. When the project was unveiled, Nigerian cement giant Dangote Group was named as a joint venture partner – along with Black Rhino and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation.

But a Dangote executive told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the company, owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, had pulled out.

“The huge debt level, and, the fact the IPPs are not making profits, is another reason for prospective investors to be deterred,” he said. “Further, collecting revenue from the distribution companies is also becoming a mirage.”

A Dangote Group spokesman declined to comment on the delay to QIPP, or whether the company had pulled out.

‘Illiquid and insolvent’

The payment problems in the Nigerian power sector were thrust into the spotlight in March when four generating companies filed a lawsuit against the government and Azura.

To ensure the generating companies were paid in full throughout 2017 and 2018, the government created a 701 billion naira ($2.3 billion) loan fund at the central bank to guarantee payments. When the fund was established in 2017, Azura wasn’t part of the calculations.

But when Azura started producing electricity, the fund was also used to pay the new plant to ensure the terms of loan deals guaranteed by the World Bank were not breached. As a result, the other companies were told they would only receive 80 percent of the sums owed, according to the lawsuit filed in March.

The four energy companies want the fund to reimburse them in full, rather than allocating part of the money to the new plant. Azura declined to comment on payments for power generated.

“If the central bank wasn’t paying, the system would collapse,” an official at a multilateral lender said on condition of anonymity. “Qua Iboe IPP would enter a system that is illiquid and insolvent. The liquidity is being provided by the central bank.”

The official said QIPP would need the same partial risk guarantee Azura received to get off the ground, but the handling of payments to Azura by the Nigerian authorities so far meant there was little appetite to offer the same support.

Fola Fagbule, senior vice president and head of advisory at Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) — one of the multilateral lenders that invested in Azura — agreed that the Qua Iboe project would struggle without payment guarantees.

“What you have is an insolvent system,” he said. “It is really difficult to make a case for a project on that scale.”

A person with direct knowledge of QIPP who declined to be named said Azura’s experience was damaging international investors’ view of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation.

“There has to be some understanding of how the sector is going to be able to afford new electrons coming into the grid,” the person said. “[Those involved] do not want QIPP to build a project that could just end up in a default situation.”

‘Knotty issues’

Nigeria’s privatized power sector typically does not use meters to provide invoices, bill collections are low and energy tariffs have remained fixed for three years, meaning customers receive unsustainably cheap electricity.

The effect, say industry experts, is that electricity distribution companies recover so little revenue from customers that they pay less than a third of what they owe to generating companies – and that’s why debts have ballooned.

Sunday Oduntan, spokesman for the Association of Nigerian Electricity Distributors, said debt levels in the sector were caused by the artificial suppression of tariffs. He said there was a 1.3 trillion naira ($4.2 billion) market shortfall that meant distributors were unable to invest in improvements.

“You cannot be selling a product below cost price and expect high remittance. The shortfall in the sector is because of the lack of a cost-reflective tariff,” said Oduntan, who speaks on behalf of Nigeria’s 11 electricity distribution companies.

Debts across the sector partly stem from a currency crisis that took hold in 2016, just months after Azura secured its financing. The bulk of power company costs are in U.S. dollars but customers pay for power in naira.

The naira lost about 30 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar in June 2016 but the devaluation was not factored into a government tariff structure that has remained unchanged. Louis Edozien, permanent secretary in the ministry of power, told Reuters there was evidence tariffs must rise, but it was also the responsibility of distributors to improve their collections, partly through better metering and infrastructure.

As for the future of QIPP, the state oil company said it would take six to eight months from whenever NBET executes an agreement to purchase power from the plant before a final investment decision could be taken.

The NNPC spokesman said there were a number of other “knotty issues”, including the completion of a transmission line from the project site. He said QIPP had now agreed in a major concession to pay $20 million for it to be finished.

He also said there was a disagreement between QIPP and the central bank about the exchange rate at which power producers could buy U.S. dollars with naira. He said this had been escalated to the minister of finance.

With the $1 billion World Bank power sector loan on hold for now, the government is considering putting another 600 billion naira into the central bank fund to pay generators when the initial amount runs out early next year, sources said.

It was not clear how the central bank loans to the sector would be repaid.

Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele told Reuters that payments from the fund could be made up to February and that the bank was holding talks with World Bank officials.

“The loan negotiations are still in progress with no terminal date yet fixed,” the power ministry’s Edozien said.

($1 = 306.6000 naira)

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NASA Satellite Will Measure the World’s Forests

Forests are often called the lungs of the planet because they produce so much oxygen. But they also store huge amounts of carbon. NASA scientists want to know exactly how much carbon, and so they have just launched a satellite that will finally give them an exact measurement. VOA’s Kevin Enochs reports.

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NASA Satellite Will Measure the World’s Forests

Forests are often called the lungs of the planet because they produce so much oxygen. But they also store huge amounts of carbon. NASA scientists want to know exactly how much carbon, and so they have just launched a satellite that will finally give them an exact measurement. VOA’s Kevin Enochs reports.

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Dow Sinks Another 464 Points as Slowdown Fears Worsen

It was another miserable day on Wall Street as a series of big December plunges continued, putting stocks on track for their worst month in a decade.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 464 points Thursday, bringing its losses to more than 1,700 points since Friday.

The benchmark S&P 500 index has slumped 10.6 percent this month and is almost 16 percent below the peak it reached in late September.

The steady gains of this spring and summer now fell like a distant memory. As we’ve entered the fall, investors started to worry that global economic growth is cooling off and that the U.S. could slip into a recession in the next few years. The S&P 500 is on track for its first annual loss in a decade.

The technology stocks that have led the market in recent years are now dragging it down. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite is now down 19.5 percent from the record high it reached in August.

The market swoon is coming even as the U.S. economy is on track to expand this year at the fastest pace in 13 years. Markets tend to move, however, on what investors anticipate will happen well into the future, so it’s not uncommon for stocks to sink even when the economy is humming along.

Slowing economy a concern

Right now, markets are concerned about the potential for a slowing economy and two threats that could make the situation worse: the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China, which has lasted most of this year, and rising interest rates, which act as a brake on economic growth by making it more expensive for businesses and individuals to borrow money.

The selling in the last two days came after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the fourth time this year and signaled it was likely to continue raising rates next year, although at a slower rate than it previously forecast.

Scott Wren, senior global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said investors felt Fed Chairman Jerome Powell came off as unconcerned about the state of the U.S. economy, despite deepening worries on Wall Street that growth could slow even more in 2019 and 2020. Wren said investors want to know that the Fed is keeping a close eye on the situation.

“He may be a little overconfident,” said Wren. “The Fed needs to be paying attention to what’s going on.”

Powell also acknowledged that the Fed’s decisions are getting trickier because they need to be based on the most up-to-date figures on jobs, inflation, and economic growth. For the last three years the Fed told investors weeks in advance that it was almost certain to increase rates. But things are less certain now, and the market hates uncertainty

‘Completely overblown’

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the market’s reaction to the Fed was “completely overblown.”

Investors have responded to a weakening outlook for the U.S. economy by selling stocks and buying ultra-safe U.S. government bonds. The bond-buying has the effect of sending long-term bond yields lower, which reduces interest rates on mortgages and other kinds of long-term loans. That’s generally good for the economy.

At the same time, the reduced bond yields can send a negative signal on the economy. Sharp drops in long-term bond yields are often seen as precursors to recessions.

The S&P 500 index skidded 39.54 points, or 1.6 percent, to 2,467.42. The Dow fell 464.06 points, or 2 percent, to 22,859.60 after sinking as much as 679.

The Nasdaq fell 108.42 points, or 1.6 percent, to 6,528.41. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies dropped another 23.23 points, or 1.7 percent, to 1,326.

Stocks for smaller companies suffer

Smaller company stocks have been crushed during the recent market slump because slower growth in the U.S. will have an outsize effect on their profits. Relative to their size, they also tend to carry more debt than larger companies, which could be a problem in a slower economy with higher interest rates.

The Russell 2000 is down almost 24 percent from the peak it reached in late August and it’s down 13.6 percent for the year to date. The S&P 500, which tracks larger companies, is down 7.7 percent.

The possibility of a partial shutdown of the federal government also loomed over the market on Thursday, as funding for the government runs out at midnight Friday. In general, shutdowns don’t affect the U.S. economy or the market much unless they stretch out for several weeks, which would delay paychecks for federal employees.

Oil prices still dropping 

Oil prices continued to retreat. Benchmark U.S. crude fell 4.8 percent to $45.88 a barrel in New York, and it’s dropped 40 percent since early October. Brent crude, used to price international oils, slipped 5 percent to $54.35 a barrel in London.

After early gains, bond prices headed lower. The yield on the two-year Treasury rose to 2.87 percent from 2.65 percent, while the 10-year note rose to 2.80 percent from 2.77 percent.

The gap between those two yields has shrunk this year. When the 10-year yield falls below the two-year yield, investors call it an “inverted yield curve.” That hasn’t happened yet, but investors fear it will. Inversions are often taken as a sign a recession is coming, although it’s not a perfect signal and when recessions do follow inversions in the yield curve, it can take a year or more.

“The bond market has been telling us something for about a year, and that is there’s not going to be much inflation and there’s not going to be a sustained surge in economic growth,” said Wren, of Wells Fargo.

Around the world

In France, the CAC 40 lost 1.8 percent and Germany’s DAX fell 1.4 percent. The British FTSE 100 slipped 0.8 percent. Indexes in Italy, Portugal and Spain took bigger losses.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 lost 2.8 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gave up 1 percent. Seoul’s Kospi shed 0.9 percent.

As investors adjusted to the prospect of a weaker economy and lower long-term interest rates, the dollar fell to 111.11 yen from 112.36 yen. The euro rose to $1.1469 from $1.1368.

The British pound rose to $1.2671 from $1.2621. That sent the price of gold higher, and it gained 0.9 percent to $1,267.9 an ounce. Silver rose 0.3 percent to $14.87 an ounce and copper, which is considered an indicator of economic growth, fell 0.7 percent to $2.70 a pound.

Other fuel prices also fell. Wholesale gasoline lost 4.6 percent to $1.32 a gallon and heating oil slid 3.1 percent to $1.75 a gallon. Natural gas gave up 3.8 percent to $3.58 per 1,000 cubic feet. 

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China Trade War Rattles Investors in New US Soy Processing Plants

The U.S.-China trade war is spooking potential investors in soybean crushing plants planned for Wisconsin and New York state, developers said, casting doubt on the future of a sector that had been a rare bright spot in the U.S. farm economy.

Crushers in the United States have been posting near-record profits by snapping up cheap and plentiful soybeans no longer purchased by China and making soymeal and soy oil for export to Europe and Southeast Asia.

But margins are not predictable as the United States and China attempt to resolve their trade differences before a March 2 deadline, adding another puzzle as investors parse out the costs and impacts of a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies.

WSBCP LLC, or the Wisconsin Soybean Crushing Plant, is struggling to find backers for the state’s first soy processing facility because of uncertainty in agricultural and financial markets over the trade conflict, said Phil Martini, chief executive of industrial contractor C.R. Meyer & Sons Co, who is overseeing the project.

“I’m not a mental giant, but it doesn’t take one to think people are uncertain about what’s going on,” Martini said. “The crush margin is very good, but it can go the other way.”

China bought about 60 percent of U.S. raw soybean exports last year in deals worth $12 billion, but has mostly been buying beans from Brazil since imposing a 25 percent tariff on American soybeans in July in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.

U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed on Dec. 1 not to impose additional tariffs for 90 days, a truce that spurred Chinese purchases of a few million tons of U.S. soybeans this month.

It is unclear when or if Beijing will remove its soy tariff, a move that would spur more deals and lift U.S. soybean prices in a boon to U.S. farmers and a blow to crushing margins.

Construction on the $150 million plant in Waupun, Wisconsin, is set to begin in 2019, with a projected opening in 2020, according to a June statement from the city, which owns the land where the facility would be located.

Martini said it remains to be seen whether the timetable needs to be postponed. He is also looking for livestock producers to commit to buying the plant’s products.

Kathy Schlieve, Waupun’s economic director, said the project would likely be delayed because the investor pool is not finalized.

“It’s different dynamic and we’re really trying to understand that,” Schlieve said about the trade war.

Shift from 2017

The uncertainty is a turnaround from last year when farmer-owned agricultural cooperatives were building new soybean crushing plants at the fastest rate in two decades after several years of large crops.

U.S. grain merchant Archer Daniels Midland Co set a new record for crush volumes in the third quarter and benefited from strong margins.

But after months of soybean futures prices hovering around 10-year lows due to the lack of Chinese buying, farmers have little room for new ventures.

“There isn’t a lot of extra money out there to invest in something like that,” said John Heisdorffer, an Iowa farmer and chairman of the American Soybean Association.

New York plant

The trade war also prolonged the search for investors for a $54 million soybean crushing plant that St. Lawrence Soyway Company is planning for Massena, New York, near the border with Canada, CEO Doug Fisher said.

Fisher tried to win over investors worried by the trade war with charts and graphs showing how the conflict improved margins for U.S. crushing plants.

“These tariffs with China rattle them, when in fact they have increased crush plant profits,” Fisher said.

As of Wednesday, the company had raised about 85 percent of the total, Fisher said.

St. Lawrence Soyway’s plant is projected to process soybeans into feed for dairy cows. The livestock industry has also been hit by Chinese tariffs on dairy products and pork, though.

“As those farmers are not doing as well, their ability to buy meal at higher prices is not there,” Fisher said.

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UK Airport Chaos Highlights Difficulty in Stopping Drones

When drones buzzing over the runway forced London’s busy Gatwick Airport to shut down, many travelers wondered why it’s so hard for authorities to stop such intruders.

Shoot them down, some said. Jam their signals, others suggested.

Experts say it’s not that easy.

Britain and the U.S. prohibit drones from being flown too high or too close to airports and other aircraft. In Britain, it is a crime punishable by up to five years in prison.

Still, there is little to stop a drone operator bent on disrupting air traffic, which British officials say was the case with the Gatwick incident that began Wednesday evening.

The number of close calls between drones and aircraft has increased dramatically in recent years as the popularity of drones has soared. Basic models for amateurs sell for under $100; larger, more sophisticated ones can cost hundreds more.

Britain had 120 reports of close encounters in 2018, up from 93 last year. In 2014, there were six, according to the U.K. Airprox Board, which catalogs air safety incidents.

In the United States, there were nearly 2,300 drone sightings at airports in the year ending June 30, according to Federal Aviation Administration records. Runways have been temporarily closed, but an FAA spokesman said he could not recall drones ever leading to the shutdown of a U.S. airport.

Drone dangers

A drone hit a small charter plane in Canada in 2017; it landed safely. In another incident that same year, a drone struck a U.S. Army helicopter in New York but caused only minor damage.

“This has gone from being what a few years ago what we would have called an emerging threat to a more active threat,” said Patrick Smith, an airline pilot and author of askthepilot.com. “The hardware is getting bigger and heavier and potentially more lethal, and so we need a way to control how these devices are used and under what rules.”

Even small drones could cause severe consequences by damaging a helicopter’s rotor or getting sucked into a jet engine. A drone could also crash through a windshield, incapacitating the pilot, though that’s mainly seen as a risk to small aircraft.

“On an airliner, because of the thickness of the glass, I think it’s pretty unlikely, unless it’s a very large drone,” said John Cox, a former airline pilot and now a safety consultant.

Drones that collide with planes could cause more damage than birds of the same size because of their solid motors, batteries and other parts, according to a study released by the FAA.

Stopping drones

Authorities could capture drones with anti-drone “net guns” that fire lightweight netting, but such equipment can be pricey and have limited range, and it is not widely used.

As for taking one down with a rifle, hitting a small, fast-moving object like a drone would be difficult even for a marksman, and the bullet could hit someone, experts say. There’s also the risk of damage or injury from a falling drone.

Jamming systems could disrupt the signals between drone and operator, but that could interfere with the many vital communication systems in use at an airport, said Marc Wagner, CEO of Switzerland-based Drone Detection Sys.

Local laws might also prevent the use of such electronic countermeasures. Wagner said it is OK in Switzerland to use jamming systems, while Britain and the U.S. prohibit them.

Dutch police experimented with using eagles to swoop down on drones and pluck them out of the sky over airports or large events, but ended the program last year, reportedly because the birds didn’t always follow orders.

“The only method is to find the pilot and to send someone to the pilot to stop him,” Wagner said.

That can be done with frequency spectrum analyzers that can triangulate the drone operator’s position, but “the technology is new and it’s not commonly used,” said Wagner, whose company sells such gear and other counter-drone technology, including radar, jammers and powerful cameras.

China’s DJI Ltd., the world’s biggest manufacturer of commercial drones, and some other makers use GPS-based “geofencing” to automatically prevent drones from flying over airports and other sensitive locations, though the feature is easy to get around.

DJI also introduced a feature last year that allows authorities to identify and monitor its drones. It wasn’t clear what brand was used in the Gatwick incident.

British authorities are planning to tighten regulations by requiring drone users to register, which could make it easier to identify the pilot. U.S. law already requires users to register their drones and get certified as pilots.

But Wagner warned: “If somebody wants to do something really bad, he will never register.”

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UK Airport Chaos Highlights Difficulty in Stopping Drones

When drones buzzing over the runway forced London’s busy Gatwick Airport to shut down, many travelers wondered why it’s so hard for authorities to stop such intruders.

Shoot them down, some said. Jam their signals, others suggested.

Experts say it’s not that easy.

Britain and the U.S. prohibit drones from being flown too high or too close to airports and other aircraft. In Britain, it is a crime punishable by up to five years in prison.

Still, there is little to stop a drone operator bent on disrupting air traffic, which British officials say was the case with the Gatwick incident that began Wednesday evening.

The number of close calls between drones and aircraft has increased dramatically in recent years as the popularity of drones has soared. Basic models for amateurs sell for under $100; larger, more sophisticated ones can cost hundreds more.

Britain had 120 reports of close encounters in 2018, up from 93 last year. In 2014, there were six, according to the U.K. Airprox Board, which catalogs air safety incidents.

In the United States, there were nearly 2,300 drone sightings at airports in the year ending June 30, according to Federal Aviation Administration records. Runways have been temporarily closed, but an FAA spokesman said he could not recall drones ever leading to the shutdown of a U.S. airport.

Drone dangers

A drone hit a small charter plane in Canada in 2017; it landed safely. In another incident that same year, a drone struck a U.S. Army helicopter in New York but caused only minor damage.

“This has gone from being what a few years ago what we would have called an emerging threat to a more active threat,” said Patrick Smith, an airline pilot and author of askthepilot.com. “The hardware is getting bigger and heavier and potentially more lethal, and so we need a way to control how these devices are used and under what rules.”

Even small drones could cause severe consequences by damaging a helicopter’s rotor or getting sucked into a jet engine. A drone could also crash through a windshield, incapacitating the pilot, though that’s mainly seen as a risk to small aircraft.

“On an airliner, because of the thickness of the glass, I think it’s pretty unlikely, unless it’s a very large drone,” said John Cox, a former airline pilot and now a safety consultant.

Drones that collide with planes could cause more damage than birds of the same size because of their solid motors, batteries and other parts, according to a study released by the FAA.

Stopping drones

Authorities could capture drones with anti-drone “net guns” that fire lightweight netting, but such equipment can be pricey and have limited range, and it is not widely used.

As for taking one down with a rifle, hitting a small, fast-moving object like a drone would be difficult even for a marksman, and the bullet could hit someone, experts say. There’s also the risk of damage or injury from a falling drone.

Jamming systems could disrupt the signals between drone and operator, but that could interfere with the many vital communication systems in use at an airport, said Marc Wagner, CEO of Switzerland-based Drone Detection Sys.

Local laws might also prevent the use of such electronic countermeasures. Wagner said it is OK in Switzerland to use jamming systems, while Britain and the U.S. prohibit them.

Dutch police experimented with using eagles to swoop down on drones and pluck them out of the sky over airports or large events, but ended the program last year, reportedly because the birds didn’t always follow orders.

“The only method is to find the pilot and to send someone to the pilot to stop him,” Wagner said.

That can be done with frequency spectrum analyzers that can triangulate the drone operator’s position, but “the technology is new and it’s not commonly used,” said Wagner, whose company sells such gear and other counter-drone technology, including radar, jammers and powerful cameras.

China’s DJI Ltd., the world’s biggest manufacturer of commercial drones, and some other makers use GPS-based “geofencing” to automatically prevent drones from flying over airports and other sensitive locations, though the feature is easy to get around.

DJI also introduced a feature last year that allows authorities to identify and monitor its drones. It wasn’t clear what brand was used in the Gatwick incident.

British authorities are planning to tighten regulations by requiring drone users to register, which could make it easier to identify the pilot. U.S. law already requires users to register their drones and get certified as pilots.

But Wagner warned: “If somebody wants to do something really bad, he will never register.”

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Then One Foggy Christmas Eve, Reindeer Got Connected

Rudolph and friends no longer need to rely on the famous reindeer’s red nose to avoid getting lost. Now they have wireless technology.

To keep track of their animals in Lapland, Northern Finland’s vast and remote snow-covered forests, reindeer herders are turning to technology by fitting them with internet-connected collars.

Herders who previously spent weeks searching for their reindeer in sub-zero wilderness can now instantly see where they are on a mobile app that receives up-to-date location data.

“In all sectors of society, this (tech) efficiency is playing a big role. It’s the same in reindeer husbandry,” said Seppo Koivisto, whose hundreds of reindeer roam Lapland’s 4,000 square-kilometer (1,545 square-mile) Palojarvi District.

Lapland’s reindeer are the main source of livelihood for about 1,500 herders, so there’s high interest in technology that can help manage them. Koivisto is using the latest generation of wireless collars made possible by a group that includes Helsinki-based communications firm Digita and Finland’s Reindeer Herding Association. The association is based in Rovaniemi, which bills itself as the “official hometown of Santa Claus.”

“We have fewer workers, so their actions should be more and more efficient all the time,” and this technology lets them do that, said Koivisto. Since he started using the technology, he has only had to hire half the usual number of workers.

The technology can also help herders account for attacks from predators such as wolverines and lynx that roam across the Russian border.

At least 5,000 reindeer are killed every year, according to the herding association. Most that die in Lapland’s forests are never found. Koivisto says he loses about 8 percent of his herd annually.

The collars, which use GPS satellite positioning and special long-distance wireless networks, help herders find reindeer corpses so they can claim valuable compensation from the Finnish government.

If a collar-fitted reindeer doesn’t move after about four hours, its icon changes from green to red on the app, signaling a potential attack.

To best locate groups of reindeer, which are bred for their meat, milk and fur, the trackers are fitted on the herd’s female leader.

“In the old days, we roughly knew reindeer locations, in which part of the district they were,” said herder Jarno Konttaniemi. “But today, with this technology, we know exactly where they are.”

Digita built the long-range network, which it says is the world’s most northerly “Internet of Things” network. The “Internet of Things” refers to the next generation of devices and everyday objects that are connected to the internet.

While reindeer herding has roots going back hundreds of years, “at least some of the reindeer owners are really up-to-date when it comes to using technology,” said Ari Kuukka, Digita’s head of “Internet of Things” services.

The herding association has been working for years on a reliable GPS reindeer tracking system. The main challenge was coming up with a device that was cheap but had a long-lasting battery.

The third and latest prototype is the size of a deck of cards, stays charged for about a year, and costs about 90 euros ($102).

The herding association hopes to eventually shrink the transmitter down to a coin-sized microchip that can be attached to a reindeer’s ear, said Matti Sarkela, the herding association’s head of office who has previously helped develop a mobile app that alerts drivers to reindeer near Finland’s often icy roads.

He hopes embracing new technologies can inspire the younger generation to carry on the herding tradition.

“It has brought a lot of young people into our industry all the time,” said Sarkela. “It’s a really positive thing.”

 

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Then One Foggy Christmas Eve, Reindeer Got Connected

Rudolph and friends no longer need to rely on the famous reindeer’s red nose to avoid getting lost. Now they have wireless technology.

To keep track of their animals in Lapland, Northern Finland’s vast and remote snow-covered forests, reindeer herders are turning to technology by fitting them with internet-connected collars.

Herders who previously spent weeks searching for their reindeer in sub-zero wilderness can now instantly see where they are on a mobile app that receives up-to-date location data.

“In all sectors of society, this (tech) efficiency is playing a big role. It’s the same in reindeer husbandry,” said Seppo Koivisto, whose hundreds of reindeer roam Lapland’s 4,000 square-kilometer (1,545 square-mile) Palojarvi District.

Lapland’s reindeer are the main source of livelihood for about 1,500 herders, so there’s high interest in technology that can help manage them. Koivisto is using the latest generation of wireless collars made possible by a group that includes Helsinki-based communications firm Digita and Finland’s Reindeer Herding Association. The association is based in Rovaniemi, which bills itself as the “official hometown of Santa Claus.”

“We have fewer workers, so their actions should be more and more efficient all the time,” and this technology lets them do that, said Koivisto. Since he started using the technology, he has only had to hire half the usual number of workers.

The technology can also help herders account for attacks from predators such as wolverines and lynx that roam across the Russian border.

At least 5,000 reindeer are killed every year, according to the herding association. Most that die in Lapland’s forests are never found. Koivisto says he loses about 8 percent of his herd annually.

The collars, which use GPS satellite positioning and special long-distance wireless networks, help herders find reindeer corpses so they can claim valuable compensation from the Finnish government.

If a collar-fitted reindeer doesn’t move after about four hours, its icon changes from green to red on the app, signaling a potential attack.

To best locate groups of reindeer, which are bred for their meat, milk and fur, the trackers are fitted on the herd’s female leader.

“In the old days, we roughly knew reindeer locations, in which part of the district they were,” said herder Jarno Konttaniemi. “But today, with this technology, we know exactly where they are.”

Digita built the long-range network, which it says is the world’s most northerly “Internet of Things” network. The “Internet of Things” refers to the next generation of devices and everyday objects that are connected to the internet.

While reindeer herding has roots going back hundreds of years, “at least some of the reindeer owners are really up-to-date when it comes to using technology,” said Ari Kuukka, Digita’s head of “Internet of Things” services.

The herding association has been working for years on a reliable GPS reindeer tracking system. The main challenge was coming up with a device that was cheap but had a long-lasting battery.

The third and latest prototype is the size of a deck of cards, stays charged for about a year, and costs about 90 euros ($102).

The herding association hopes to eventually shrink the transmitter down to a coin-sized microchip that can be attached to a reindeer’s ear, said Matti Sarkela, the herding association’s head of office who has previously helped develop a mobile app that alerts drivers to reindeer near Finland’s often icy roads.

He hopes embracing new technologies can inspire the younger generation to carry on the herding tradition.

“It has brought a lot of young people into our industry all the time,” said Sarkela. “It’s a really positive thing.”

 

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Sex Abuse Case Against Movie Mogul to Proceed

A New York judge on Thursday refused to dismiss sexual assault allegations against Harvey Weinstein, the Hollywood movie mogul who came to symbolize the MeToo movement which exposed sexual harassment by powerful men against women in the workplace.

Weinstein’s lawyers had sought to get the charges dismissed, claiming that the case against him was “irreparably tainted” by a police detective who allegedly coached a potential witness and one of the accusers. Prosecutors said there was plenty of evidence to proceed with the case.

Judge James Burke denied the defense request and set the next hearing in the case for March 7.

“We are obviously disappointed that the charges were not dismissed today,” said Weinstein’s lawyer, Ben Brafman. He predicted that Weinstein, who faces life imprisonment if convicted, will be “completely exonerated.”

Weinstein, 66, who faces five charges linked to an alleged rape in March 2013 and a forced act of oral sex in 2006, has denied all allegations of nonconsensual sex. More than 80 women have accused him of sexual misconduct.

After allegations against the powerful movie producer first surfaced, dozens of women throughout the U.S. made their own public accusations of sexual abuse against men in their lives, often bosses in the corporate world, the media and academia.

As the MeToo movement took hold, powerful men across the country were forced to apologize for their actions, with many of them resigning or being fired from their positions.

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Sex Abuse Case Against Movie Mogul to Proceed

A New York judge on Thursday refused to dismiss sexual assault allegations against Harvey Weinstein, the Hollywood movie mogul who came to symbolize the MeToo movement which exposed sexual harassment by powerful men against women in the workplace.

Weinstein’s lawyers had sought to get the charges dismissed, claiming that the case against him was “irreparably tainted” by a police detective who allegedly coached a potential witness and one of the accusers. Prosecutors said there was plenty of evidence to proceed with the case.

Judge James Burke denied the defense request and set the next hearing in the case for March 7.

“We are obviously disappointed that the charges were not dismissed today,” said Weinstein’s lawyer, Ben Brafman. He predicted that Weinstein, who faces life imprisonment if convicted, will be “completely exonerated.”

Weinstein, 66, who faces five charges linked to an alleged rape in March 2013 and a forced act of oral sex in 2006, has denied all allegations of nonconsensual sex. More than 80 women have accused him of sexual misconduct.

After allegations against the powerful movie producer first surfaced, dozens of women throughout the U.S. made their own public accusations of sexual abuse against men in their lives, often bosses in the corporate world, the media and academia.

As the MeToo movement took hold, powerful men across the country were forced to apologize for their actions, with many of them resigning or being fired from their positions.

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At Least 8 Killed in Sudan Protests, State of Emergency Declared

A state of emergency has been declared in two eastern Sudan states after at least eight protesters were killed in mass demonstrations against rising prices.

Thousands of protesters marched in cities and towns across Sudan Thursday, angry over widespread corruption and the rising costs of basic goods, including bread.

Eyewitnesses in al-Qadarif said men wearing uniforms were among the protesters. Prices for food have skyrocketed in recent months, with inflation topping 60 percent. This comes after the government cut subsidies earlier this year.

Protesters there torched government buildings, including the headquarters of the ruling National Congress Party. Eyewitnesses in Atbara say the building was burned to the ground.

States of emergency were declared in the cities of al-Qadarif and Atbara.

Some of the Sudanese protesters are demanding a regime change. Many say they cannot earn a living or pay for basic needs like bread and fuel.

A Khartoum resident said students were planning to stage more protests Thursday around Khartoum University, but government security agents intervened and the students were ordered off the streets.

Police fired tear gas at hundreds of protesters within a kilometer of the presidential palace in Khartoum. Demonstrations were reported in Atbara, Port Sudan, Barbar, Nohoud and other cities.

The economy has deteriorated over the past several years after South Sudan became independent, depriving Khartoum of much of its oil revenue.

Carol Van Dam Falk and Kenneth Schwartz contributed.

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Virginia House With Over-the-Top Christmas Spirit

Christmas is a time for giving. For one man that means decorating his house with over-the-top Christmas displays to warm people’s hearts. It’s a family tradition that Kurt Farmer took over from his father. VOA’s Deborah Block takes us to the home full of Christmas spirit in Alexandria, Virginia.

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Virginia House With Over-the-Top Christmas Spirit

Christmas is a time for giving. For one man that means decorating his house with over-the-top Christmas displays to warm people’s hearts. It’s a family tradition that Kurt Farmer took over from his father. VOA’s Deborah Block takes us to the home full of Christmas spirit in Alexandria, Virginia.

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US Central Bank Boosts Benchmark Interest Rate

The independent U.S. central bank raised borrowing rates Wednesday for the fourth time this year, dismissing President Donald Trump’s contention that policymakers ought not tinker with the country’s robust economy, the world’s largest. 

 

The Federal Reserve board voted 10-0 after a two-day meeting to increase its benchmark short-term interest rate — which is the rate that banks charge each other on overnight loans to meet reserve minimums — by a quarter percentage point to a range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent, its highest point in a decade.  

 

But the Fed also took note of clouds on the horizon for the U.S. economy, saying it expected to increase rates again only twice in 2019, not three times as it had previously projected.

It also cut its 2019 economic growth forecast for the U.S. from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent, both figures well off the 4.2 percent U.S. growth in the April-to-June period and the 3.5 percent figure from July to September. 

Stock prices have sunk 

 

Policymakers said they would closely watch “global economic and financial market developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook.” In the last several weeks, stock market indexes in the U.S. and elsewhere have fallen sharply, a plunge for some U.S. market indicators that wiped out all previous 2018 gains. 

 

The interest rate set by the Fed often affects borrowing costs throughout the U.S., for major corporations and consumers, and often sets the standard for global lending rates. 

 

Trump had no immediate comment on the latest boost in interest rates, but earlier in the week implored policymakers to forgo another increase: 

But central bank policymakers operate independently of White House oversight, and Wednesday’s quarter-point increase had been widely expected.

Trump has basked in a robust U.S. economy, even as numerous investigations engulf him and his 2016 presidential campaign, and key advisers have quit his administration or been forced out.

U.S. trade disputes are ongoing with China, and world stock market volatility has cut investor gains in recent weeks. But the 3.7 percent jobless rate is the lowest in the United States in 49 years, worker wages are increasing and consumers — whose activity accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy — are spending. 

​Unhappy with Powell

But Jerome Powell, the Fed board member Trump named a year ago as chairman, had drawn the president’s ire by overseeing three interest rate hikes this year ahead of the latest one.

Trump last month said he was “not even a little bit happy” with his appointment of Powell.

Trump has said he thinks the Fed is “way off base” by raising rates, but has been powerless to stop it from boosting them. Central bank policymakers have raised interest rates to keep the inflation rate in check and keep the economy from expanding too rapidly. 

“I’m doing deals and I’m not being accommodated by the Fed,” Trump told The Washington Post last month. “They’re making a mistake because I have a gut and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.”

Some economists are predicting, however, that the decade-long improving U.S. economy could stall in the next year or so and perhaps even fall into a recession, which, if it occurs, would in most circumstances call for cutting interest rates to boost economic activity. 

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US Central Bank Boosts Benchmark Interest Rate

The independent U.S. central bank raised borrowing rates Wednesday for the fourth time this year, dismissing President Donald Trump’s contention that policymakers ought not tinker with the country’s robust economy, the world’s largest. 

 

The Federal Reserve board voted 10-0 after a two-day meeting to increase its benchmark short-term interest rate — which is the rate that banks charge each other on overnight loans to meet reserve minimums — by a quarter percentage point to a range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent, its highest point in a decade.  

 

But the Fed also took note of clouds on the horizon for the U.S. economy, saying it expected to increase rates again only twice in 2019, not three times as it had previously projected.

It also cut its 2019 economic growth forecast for the U.S. from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent, both figures well off the 4.2 percent U.S. growth in the April-to-June period and the 3.5 percent figure from July to September. 

Stock prices have sunk 

 

Policymakers said they would closely watch “global economic and financial market developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook.” In the last several weeks, stock market indexes in the U.S. and elsewhere have fallen sharply, a plunge for some U.S. market indicators that wiped out all previous 2018 gains. 

 

The interest rate set by the Fed often affects borrowing costs throughout the U.S., for major corporations and consumers, and often sets the standard for global lending rates. 

 

Trump had no immediate comment on the latest boost in interest rates, but earlier in the week implored policymakers to forgo another increase: 

But central bank policymakers operate independently of White House oversight, and Wednesday’s quarter-point increase had been widely expected.

Trump has basked in a robust U.S. economy, even as numerous investigations engulf him and his 2016 presidential campaign, and key advisers have quit his administration or been forced out.

U.S. trade disputes are ongoing with China, and world stock market volatility has cut investor gains in recent weeks. But the 3.7 percent jobless rate is the lowest in the United States in 49 years, worker wages are increasing and consumers — whose activity accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy — are spending. 

​Unhappy with Powell

But Jerome Powell, the Fed board member Trump named a year ago as chairman, had drawn the president’s ire by overseeing three interest rate hikes this year ahead of the latest one.

Trump last month said he was “not even a little bit happy” with his appointment of Powell.

Trump has said he thinks the Fed is “way off base” by raising rates, but has been powerless to stop it from boosting them. Central bank policymakers have raised interest rates to keep the inflation rate in check and keep the economy from expanding too rapidly. 

“I’m doing deals and I’m not being accommodated by the Fed,” Trump told The Washington Post last month. “They’re making a mistake because I have a gut and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.”

Some economists are predicting, however, that the decade-long improving U.S. economy could stall in the next year or so and perhaps even fall into a recession, which, if it occurs, would in most circumstances call for cutting interest rates to boost economic activity. 

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