British civil servants have warned of shortages of food, fuel and medicines within weeks if the U.K. leaves the European Union without a trade deal, a newspaper reported Sunday.

The Sunday Times said government officials have modeled three potential scenarios for a “no deal” Brexit: mild, severe and “Armageddon.”

It said under the “severe” scenario, the English Channel ferry port of Dover would “collapse on day one” and supermarkets and hospitals would soon run short of supplies.

Britain wants to strike a deal on future trade relations with the EU before it officially leaves the bloc on March 29, 2019, but officials are also drawing up plans for negotiations ending without an agreement.

The U.K.’s Department for Exiting the European Union rejected the downbeat scenario, saying it was drawing up no-deal plans but was confident “none of this would come to pass.”

Britain and the EU are aiming to strike an overall Brexit agreement by October, so parliaments in other EU nations have time to ratify it before Britain leaves the bloc.

But British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative government is split between ministers who favor a clean-break “hard Brexit,” that would leave Britain freer to strike new trade deals around the world, and those who want to keep the country closely aligned to the EU, Britain’s biggest trading partner.

 EU leaders are frustrated with what they see as a lack of firm proposals from the U.K. over how to resolve major issues around customs arrangements and the status of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. That will be the U.K.’s only land border with the EU after Britain leaves the bloc.

Irish Deputy Prime Minister Simon Coveney said Saturday that the U.K. must produce “written proposals” for the border within two weeks, ahead of a June 28-29 EU summit.

 British Home Secretary Sajid Javid said Sunday that the British government would have “a good set of proposals” to submit to the bloc at its June meeting.

 
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China has warned that any agreements with Washington in their talks on settling a sprawling trade dispute “will not take effect” if threatened U.S. sanctions including tariff hikes go ahead.

The statement Sunday came shortly after delegations led by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and China’s top economic official, Vice Premier Liu He, held another round of talks on China’s pledge to narrow its trade surplus with the United States by purchasing more American goods. 

The Chinese statement said the two sides made “positive and concrete progress,” but neither side released details.

The statement said, “If the United States introduces trade sanctions including increasing tariffs, all the economic and trade achievements negotiated by the two parties will not take effect.”

Ross said U.S. and Chinese officials have discussed specific American export items Beijing might buy as part of its pledge to narrow its trade surplus with the United States.

The two sides began a new round of talks in Beijing this weekend aimed at settling a simmering trade dispute.

Ross gave no details at the start of his meeting Sunday with Liu, China’s top economic official. But Chinese envoys promised after the last high-level meeting in Washington in mid-May to buy more American farm goods and energy products.

President Donald Trump is pressing Beijing to narrow its politically volatile surplus in trade in goods with the United States, which reached a record $375.2 billion last year. He’s threatening to hike duties on up to $150 billion of Chinese imports.

“Our meetings so far have been friendly and frank, and covered some useful topics about specific export items,” Ross said.

Ross was accompanied by agricultural, treasury and trade officials. Liu’s delegation included China’s central bank governor and commerce minister.

There was no indication whether the talks also would take up American complaints that Beijing steals or pressures foreign companies regarding their technology. The White House renewed a threat this week to hike duties on $50 billion of Chinese technology-related goods over that dispute.

Private sector analysts say that while Beijing is willing to compromise on its trade surplus, it will resist changes that might threaten plans to transform China into a global technology competitor.

Ross had a working dinner Saturday evening with Liu, also at the same guesthouse in Beijing.

China has promised to “significantly increase” purchases of farm goods, energy and other products and services. Still, Beijing resisted pressure to commit to a specific target of narrowing its annual surplus with the United States by $200 billion.
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China is warning the United States any trade and business agreements between the two countries will be void if President Donald Trump carries out his threats to impose tariff hikes and other trade measures.

The warning came after U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He ended a new round of talks Sunday in Beijing aimed at settling a simmering trade dispute, in which Beijing pledged to buy more American products to narrow its trade surplus with the United States.  The Chinese trade surplus reached $375 billion last year.

No joint statement was issued and neither side released details.

“Our meetings so far have been friendly and frank,” Ross said at the start of the talks, “and covered some useful topics about specific export items” China might buy.

Chinese envoys had promised after the last high-level meeting in Washington in mid-May to buy more American farm goods and energy products.

Ross was accompanied by agricultural, treasury and trade officials.

Liu’s delegation included China’s central bank governor and commerce minister.

There was no indication whether the talks also took up American complaints that Beijing steals from or pressures foreign companies.

Trump is threatening to hike duties on up to $150 billion of Chinese imports, with Beijing vowing to retaliate in kind.

The White House renewed a threat last week to hike duties on $50 billion of Chinese technology-related goods in that dispute.

The state-run Chinese newspaper Global Times contended in an editorial that, “Tariffs and expanding exports – the United States can’t have both.  China-U.S. trade negotiations have to dig up the two sides’ greatest number of common interests, and cannot be tilted toward unilateral U.S. interests.”

While the U.S.-China trade and tariff disputes remain unresolved, Trump last week imposed new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the European Union, Canada and Mexico, angering three key U.S. allies who vowed to retaliate by imposing new duties on American goods.

 
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Britain will not sign a trade agreement with the United States that is not in the country’s best interests, Trade Minister Liam Fox said Saturday after European Union officials filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization over stiff U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

“If we can’t come to an agreement that we believe is in the interests of the United Kingdom, then we wouldn’t be signing any trade agreement,” Fox said Saturday in an interview with BBC radio.

Fox’s comments came one day after European Union officials submitted a formal complaint to the WTO, the first in a series of retaliatory actions, including possible tariffs, against the U.S. Fox said the tariffs are “illegal” and that British Prime Minister Theresa May would raise the issue at the Group of Seven meeting next week in Canada.

Trans-Atlantic and North American trade tensions escalated when the U.S. imposed on Friday a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports from the European Union, Canada and Mexico. The U.S. also negotiated quotas or volume limits on other countries, such as South Korea, Argentina, Australia and Brazil, instead of tariffs.

In a separate dispute, China is prepared to target billions of dollars in U.S. products, many of which come from America’s agricultural heartland, where Trump enjoys strong voter support.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross arrived in Beijing Saturday in an attempt to avert an all-out trade war between the world’s two largest economies. On China’s target list are U.S. soybean farmers, who export about 60-percent of their soybeans to China.

A dairy farmer who also grows soybeans in the midwestern state of Nebraska, Ben Steffen, is angry about the U.S. tariffs “because it hits me in my pocketbook from multiple angles.”

California farmer Jeff Colombini, who grows walnuts, cherries and apples, is concerned about the financial damage a trade war could bring.

“With these tariffs, its going to make the product[s] too expensive for the consumers in Mexico and in Canada and in the EU,” he said. “I have 200 employees, and they depend on the success of this operation for their jobs and to feed and clothe their families.”

The imposition of the tariffs is also not popular with some members of Congress, including those from Trump’s own party, whose states are dependent on exports.

“Imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on our most important trading partners is the wrong approach and represents an abuse of authority intended only for national security purposes,” said Bob Corker of Tennessee, who is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

“You don’t treat allies the same way you treat opponents,” Republican Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska said on Twitter. “Blanket protectionism is a big part of why we had a Great Depression. ‘Make America Great Again’ shouldn’t mean ‘Make America 1929 Again.’”

Tennessee has three major auto assembly plants. Nebraska is a significant exporter of cattle, corn, soybeans and hogs.

Mexico said, in response, it will penalize U.S. imports, including pork bellies, apples, grapes, cheeses and flat steel.

“There’s a reason why” the countries are carefully selecting which American products to target in response, said William Reinsch, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Most of bourbon is made in Kentucky, which is the state of the Senate majority leader. Harley Davidsons are made in Wisconsin, which is the state of the speaker of the House,” Reinsch told VOA News. “Usually when other countries retaliate, and the Chinese have done something similar, is they’re good at maximizing political pain by picking out products that are made in places where people are politically important.”

“Tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are a tax hike on Americans and will have damaging consequences for consumers, manufacturers and workers,” said Republican Orrin Hatch, who chairs the Senate’s finance committee and is a longtime advocate of breaking down trade barriers.

Expected higher prices for U.S. consumers on some products is only one side of the equation, said Ross, who noted that steel and aluminum makers in the U.S. are adding employment and opening facilities as a result of the U.S. government action.

“You can create a few jobs, however, you’re going to lose more in the process,” as consuming industries will be placed at a disadvantage of paying more for raw materials compared to their foreign competitors, Simon Lester, trade policy analyst at the libertarian Cato Institute, told VOA News.

 
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An anonymous bidder offered more than $3.3 million Friday for a private lunch with Warren Buffett, an amount just short of the record paid in 2016 and 2012 for the chance to pick the brain of the renowned investor and philanthropist.

An online auction that raises money for the Glide Foundation’s work to help the homeless in San Francisco ended Friday night on eBay with a winning bid of $3,300,100. The winner wished to remain anonymous.

Third highest price paid

The price was the third highest in the 18 years Buffett has offered the lunch. Winners paid $3,456,789 in 2012 and 2016, which remain the most expensive charity items ever sold on eBay.

Buffett has raised more than $26 million for the Glide Foundation through the annual auctions. Bidders continue to pay high prices for the chance to talk with Buffett, who leads Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway, and the event raises a significant part of Glide’s $20 million annual budget.

Buffett supports Glide because of the work the charity does to help people. His first wife, Susie, introduced him to Glide after she volunteered there.

“Glide really takes people who have hit rock bottom and helps bring them back. They’ve been doing it for decades,” Buffett said.

Glide provides meals, health care, job training, rehabilitation and housing support to the poor and homeless.

One topic off limits

Buffett has said he gets asked about a variety of topics during the lunch. The only subject that’s off limits is what Buffett might invest in next.

The winners of the lunch auction typically dine with Buffett at Smith and Wollensky steak house in New York City, which donates at least $10,000 to Glide each year to host the lunch.

Buffett’s company owns more than 90 companies including insurance, furniture, railroad, jewelry, utility and candy businesses. Berkshire Hathaway also has major investments in companies including Coca-Cola Co., Apple, American Express and Wells Fargo & Co.
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The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in May, sending the unemployment rate to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent. The Labor Department says hourly wages also grew, bumping average worker pay up 2.7 percent from this time last year. And yet, despite the improving job picture, economists say there may be dark clouds forming on the horizon. Mil Arcega reports.
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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross arrived in Beijing on Saturday for talks on China’s promise to buy more American goods after Washington revived tensions by renewing its threat of tariff hikes on Chinese high-tech exports.

The talks focus on adding details to China’s May 19 promise to narrow its politically volatile surplus in trade in goods with the United States, which reached a record $375.2 billion last year.

President Donald Trump threw the status of the talks into doubt this week by renewing a threat to hike tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods over complaints Beijing steals or pressures foreign companies to hand over technology.

Compromise on surplus

Private sector analysts say that while Beijing is willing to compromise on its trade surplus, it will resist changes that might threaten plans to transform China into a global technology competitor.

China has promised to “significantly increase” purchases of farm goods, energy and other products and services. Still, Beijing resisted pressure to commit to a specific target of narrowing its annual surplus with the United States by $200 billion.

Following Beijing’s announcement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the dispute was “on hold.” But the truce appeared to end with this week’s announcement that Washington was going ahead with tariff hikes on technology goods and also would impose curbs on Chinese investment and purchases of U.S. high-tech exports.

Technology competitor

The move reflects growing American concern about China’s status as a potential tech competitor and complaints Beijing improperly subsidizes its fledgling industries and shields them from competition.

Foreign governments and businesses cite strategic plans such as “Made in China 2025,” which calls for state-led efforts to create Chinese industry leaders in areas from robots to electric cars to computer chips.

“The U.S. focus on so-called industrially significant technologies heightens the risk of escalation between the two countries,” BMI Research said in a report. “Indeed, while China has shown itself willing to compromise in the area of trade deficit reduction, it will not take any actions which threaten its strategically important ‘Made in China 2025’ program.”

Trump also has threatened to raise tariffs on an additional $100 billion of Chinese goods, but gave no indication this week whether that would go ahead.

Earlier, China responded with a threat to retaliate with higher duties on a $50 billion list of American goods including soybeans, small aircraft, whiskey, electric vehicles and orange juice. It criticized Trump’s move this week and said it reserved the right to retaliate but avoided repeating its earlier threat.

Tariffs on Canada, Europe Mexico

Trade analysts warned Ross’s hand might be weakened by the Trump administration’s decision Thursday to go ahead with tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Europe and Mexico.

That might alienate allies who share complaints about Chinese technology policy and a flood of low-priced steel, aluminum and other exports they say are the result of improper subsidies and hurt foreign competitors.
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U.S. employers extended a streak of solid hiring in May, adding 223,000 jobs and helping lower the unemployment rate to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent.

The Labor Department says average hourly pay rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, a slightly faster annual rate than in April. But pay growth remains below levels that are typical when the unemployment rate is this low.

Still, the report shows that the nearly 9-year old economic expansion – the second-longest on record – remains on track. Employers appear to be shrugging off recent concerns about global trade disputes.

The job market is also benefiting a wider range of Americans: The unemployment rate for high school graduates reached 3.9 percent, a 17-year low. For black Americans, it hit a record low of 5.9 percent.

The solid hiring data coincides with other evidence that the economy is on firm footing after a brief slowdown in the first three months of the year. The economy grew at a modest 2.2 percent annual rate in the January-March quarter, after three quarters that had averaged roughly 3 percent annually.

Some economists remain concerned that the Trump administration’s aggressive actions on trade could hamper growth. The administration on Thursday imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from key allies in Europe, Canada and Mexico. Earlier in the week, it threatened to hit China with tariffs on $50 billion of its goods.

Still, while Trump has made such threats since March, most employers so far haven’t suspended hiring.

And consumers have started to spend more freely, after having pulled back in the January-March quarter. That gain could reflect in part the effect of the Trump administration’s tax cuts, which might be encouraging more Americans to step up spending. Consumer spending rose in April at its fastest pace in five months.

Some of the spending reflects more money needed to pay higher gas prices, a potential trouble spot for consumers in the coming months. The average price of a gallon of gas nationwide reached $2.96 on Thursday, up 15 cents from a month ago, according to AAA. Some economists calculate that higher gas costs could offset up to one-third of the benefit of the tax cuts.

Companies are spending more on industrial machinery, computers and software _ signs that they’re optimistic enough about future growth to expand their capacity. A measure of business investment rose in the first quarter by the most in 3{ years. That investment growth has been spurred partly by higher oil prices, which have encouraged the construction of more drilling rigs.

Manufacturers have benefited from the healthier business spending and have increased hiring. In April, factories expanded production of turbines and other heavy machinery by the most in seven months.

Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm, says it now foresees the economy expanding at a robust 4 percent annual pace in the April-June quarter, which would be the fastest in nearly four years. That is up from its forecast last week of less than a 3 percent rate for the current quarter.

Yet even with unemployment at an 18-year low, wage growth has been chronically sluggish in most industries, leaving many Americans still struggling to pay bills, particularly as inflation has ticked up. Still, companies are starting to pay more to lure workers from other companies, a trend that could lead to broader pay gains in coming months.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said higher pay for job-switchers tends to augur more robust raises for everyone else.

At the same time, Martha Gimbel, head of economic research at the job listing site Indeed, notes that wages for people who remain in their jobs have actually declined in recent months. That suggests that many employers have yet to worry about their workers being lured away.

 
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Some U.S. trading partners are vowing to retaliate against U.S interests over President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports from the European Union, Canada and Mexico beginning on Friday.
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