News

The U.S. economy grew at a robust annual rate of 3.5 percent in the July-September quarter as the strongest burst of consumer spending in nearly four years helped offset a sharp drag from trade. 

The Commerce Department said Friday that the third quarter’s gross domestic product, the country’s total output of goods and services, followed an even stronger 4.2 percent rate of growth in the second quarter. The two quarters marked the strongest consecutive quarters of growth since 2014.

The result was slightly higher than many economists had been projecting. It was certain to be cited by President Donald Trump as evidence his economic policies are working. But some private economists worry that the recent stock market declines could be a warning signal of a coming slowdown.

The GDP report along with next week’s unemployment report for October are the last major looks at the economy before voters go to the polls in the mid-term elections.

For this year, economists are projecting the momentum built up should result in growth of 3 percent, the best annual showing in 13 years. But they believe the impact of Trump’s trade war with China and rising interest rates will slow growth in 2019 to around 2.4 percent, with a further decline to under 2 percent in 2020.

“I think we will see a significant slowdown, in part because economic growth has been raised to an artificially high level by the tax cuts,” said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at SS Economics in Los Angeles.

Trump in recent weeks has accelerated his attacks on the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates, contending that the higher rates by slowing the economy will work against his efforts to speed up growth through the $1.5 trillion tax cut package Trump got Congress to pass last year.

“Every time we do something great, he raises interest rates,” Trump said in an interview this week with the Wall Street Journal in which he again said he viewed the Fed as the “biggest risk” facing the economy “because I think interest rates are being raised too quickly.”

The central bank has raised rates three times this year and signaled it will raise rates one more time this year and expect to raise rates three times in 2019. Those moves are being made to ensure that tight labor markets, with unemployment at a 49-year low of 3.7 percent, and strong growth don’t trigger unwanted inflation.

The GDP report Friday was the government’s first of three reviews of overall economic activity for the July-September period.

The report showed that consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of economic activity, surged at an annual rate of 4 percent in the third quarter, even better than the 3.8 percent gain in the second quarter and the best showing since last 2014.

Trade, which had boosted second quarter growth by 1.2 percentage points, shaved 1.8 percentage points off growth in the third quarter. Exports, which had surged at a 9.3 percent rate in the second quarter, fell at a 3.5 percent rate in the third quarter. Analysts had forecast this turn-around, saying it reflected the surge in exports of goods such as soybeans in the spring as producers tried to beat the higher tariffs being imposed by China in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.

Another big swing factor in the third quarter was business restocking of their shelves. Inventories had trimmed 1 percentage point off growth in the second quarter but boosted growth by 2 percentage points in the third quarter.

Housing continued to be a drag, falling for a third straight quarter. Business investment, which had surged at an 8.7 percent rage in the second quarter, slowed to a small 0.8 percent gain the third quarter.
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Honda Motor Co is considering shifting production of its U.S.-bound Fit subcompact cars to Japan from Mexico in a few years, partly due to a new North American trade agreement, two people familiar with the deal told Reuters.

Fit cars for export to the United States are now made at Honda’s auto plant in Celaya, Mexico. The Celaya plant also makes HR-V sport utility vehicles (SUVs) for the U.S. market.

A Honda spokesman said the company had not made any decisions on Fit production.

The new trilateral deal, which replaces the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), is set to raise the minimum North American content for cars to qualify for duty-free market access to 75 percent from 62.5 percent.

U.S. President Donald Trump wants the deal to shrink the U.S. trade deficit by curbing imports into the United States and boosting production of foreign-branded vehicles there.

But the terms of the trade deal reduce Honda’s incentive to produce the Fit in Mexico for the U.S. and European markets, said the sources, one of whom has direct knowledge of the plan and the other who was briefed on it.

They declined to be identified as the matter was still confidential.

In addition, they said, U.S. consumers are increasingly shifting to SUVs, making it more advantageous for the Mexico plant to build those, rather than subcompacts.

One of the sources said if Honda decides to shift production, it would come when the company launches its next Fit model in the next few years.
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Top trade officials from 12 countries and the European Union on Thursday vowed to reform World Trade Organization rules in the face of U.S. actions that threaten to paralyze the body and address some of Washington’s complaints about Chinese subsidies.

The officials, meeting in the Canadian capital Ottawa, said they shared a “common resolve for rapid and concerted action” to address challenges to the WTO.

“The current situation at the WTO is no longer sustainable. Our resolve for change must be matched with action,” the officials said in a communique issued after their daylong meeting ended.

The United States and China, which are locked in an escalating tariff war that is threatening the WTO’s foundations, were not invited to the meeting to discuss reform ideas, but Canadian Trade Minister Jim Carr said he would report outcomes to them and try to persuade them to join the reform effort.

Carr acknowledged that no WTO reforms could proceed without a buy-in from the world’s two largest economies.

“They should listen because we’re making good arguments,” Carr told a news conference after the meeting, adding that the group’s proposals would ultimately serve U.S. and Chinese interests.

The officials from Canada, the European Union, Japan, Brazil, Mexico, Australia and seven other countries agreed to meet again in January 2019 to review progress from their discussions.

They were short on specifics of their proposals, but called for urgent action to unblock the appointment of new judges to the Appellate Body of the WTO’s dispute settlement system, which they said puts the functioning of the entire body at risk, causing rules enforcement to grind to a halt by the spring of 2019.

The statement did not refer directly to U.S. actions to block such appointments over longstanding complaints that many past appellate rulings have exceeded the judges’ authority, unfairly favoring China and some other members.

“Our number one priority is getting dispute settlement back on track. What good is there to have rules if they cannot be enforced?” said one participating minister who spoke on condition of anonymity.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to pull out of the 23-year-old trade body, with roots that date back to the end of World War II, if it does not “shape up” and treat the United States more fairly.

At the Ottawa meetings, Carr said “there was no blaming, there was no shaming” of the United States and the group agreed to consider “alternative” ways to settle disputes, including mediation.

The trade officials also said they recognize “the need to address market distortions caused by subsidies and other instruments,” a reference to complaints by the United States and some other Western economies that current WTO anti-subsidy rules fail to capture all the ways China’s government supports its industries and state enterprises.

The statement said the officials were concerned with WTO members’ track record in complying with subsidy notification requirements and called for stronger monitoring and transparency of countries’ trade policies.

The member group also vowed to “reinvigorate” the WTO’s long-stalled negotiating function, calling for talks to curb fisheries subsidies to be completed in 2019.

Mexico’s Deputy Economy Minister Juan Carlos Baker said world leaders would have a chance to press the United States, China and other nations twice next month — at an Asia-Pacific summit and a meeting of leaders of the G-20 group of nations.

“We are going to waste no opportunity whatsoever in terms of political events. … I am sure that we will use these occasions to speak about what we’re doing,” he said in an interview.
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Major U.S. stock indexes made strong gains in Thursday’s trading after some upbeat profit reports by major companies. 

The Nasdaq composite posted its biggest daily gain since March, as Microsoft’s upbeat earnings spurred a rebound in technology names and investors snapped up oversold shares. The Nasdaq added 209.94 points, or 2.95 percent, to 7,318.34, a day after it confirmed a correction and registered its biggest decline since 2011.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 401.13 points, or 1.63 percent, to 24,984.55, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 49.47 points, or 1.86 percent, to 2,705.57. Both moved back into positive territory for the year. 

In Europe, France’s key index jumped 1.6 percent, while German and British stock prices made smaller gains. 

Variety of gainers

The latest round of good U.S. results came from a variety of companies, including Ford Motor Co., Visa Inc., Whirlpool Corp. and Twitter Inc., and offered relief after the earnings season began slowly and stumbled further on sluggish outlooks from manufacturers and chipmakers. 

Stocks have sold off recently amid worries about rising interest rates, growing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, China’s slowing economy and the fading impact of the recent U.S. tax cut on company profits. 

In a further sign that economic growth is moderating, U.S. business spending on equipment appeared to have remained slow in September and the goods trade deficit grew as rising imports outpaced a rebound in exports. 

Lower prices

But the recent sell-off has also made stocks a bit cheaper. The S&P 500’s valuation fell to a 2½-year low of 15.3 times profit estimates for the next 12 months from 15.8, according to trading and data business Refinitiv.

Results from S&P 500 companies have pushed up third-quarter profit growth estimates to 23.6 percent from 21.8 percent in the last 10 days. But forecasts have trimmed fourth-quarter growth estimates to 19.4 percent from 19.9 percent, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv. 

Some information for this report came from Reuters.
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Another torrent of selling gripped Wall Street on Wednesday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting more than 600 points and extending a losing streak for the benchmark S&P 500 index to a sixth day.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite bore the brunt of the sell-off, leaving it more than 10 percent below its August peak, what Wall Street calls a “correction.” The Dow and S&P 500 erased their gains for the year.

Technology stocks and media and communications companies accounted for much of the selling. AT&T sank after reporting weak subscriber numbers, and chipmaker Texas Instruments fell sharply after reporting slumping demand.

Banks, health care and industrial companies also took heavy losses, outweighing gains by utilities and other high-dividend stocks.

Disappointing quarterly results and outlooks continued to weigh on the market, stoking investors’ jitters over future growth in corporate profits. Bond prices continued to rise, sending yields lower, as traders sought safe-haven investments.

“Investors are on pins and needles,” said Erik Davidson, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Private Bank. “There has definitely been a change in sentiment for investors starting with the volatility we had last week. The sentiment and the outlook seem to be turning more negative, or at the very least, less rosy.”

The S&P 500 lost 84.59 points, or 3.1 percent, to 2,656.10. The index is now off about 9.4 percent from its Sept. 20 peak.

The Dow tumbled 608.01 points, or 2.4 percent, to 24,583.42. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 329.14 points, or 4.4 percent, to 7,108.40. That’s the Nasdaq’s biggest drop since August 2011.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks gave up 57.89 points, or 3.8 percent, to 1,468.70.

Bond prices rose, sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury note down to 3.11 percent from 3.16 percent late Tuesday.
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Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said on Wednesday the kingdom will continue with reforms and spending on infrastructure, predicting the economy will grow by 2.5 percent this year.

Speaking at an investment conference in Riyadh, the crown prince also said he expected economic growth next year to be higher.

Higher oil prices has helped Saudi Arabia’s economy grow in the second quarter at its fastest pace for over a year, according to official data.

Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, expanded 1.6 percent from a year earlier in the April-June quarter. That was up from 1.2 percent in the first quarter and the fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 2016.

The pick-up was mainly due to the government sector, where growth jumped to 4.0 percent from 2.7 percent as authorities boosted spending, the data showed.

The crown prince also said the kingdom would press ahead with a war on terrorism.

 
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Julius Wakam worked in auto manufacturing for 11 years before being laid off in 2008. Today, the married father of three has a job at a hardware store to make ends meet until he can secure another well-paying position in his field.

Like many workers in America’s so-called Rust Belt, Wakam lost his manufacturing job not only to an influx of robots, but also because the jobs were shipped overseas where labor is cheaper.

“For me and my co-workers, they shipped the jobs overseas to Mexico, Brazil, China and a few went to India,” Wakam says.

Today, the Rust Belt is perhaps best-known for its declining industry, aging and shuttered factories, and falling population, primarily in the Midwest and Great Lakes region.

But the Midwest region was once known for the booming steel production and heavy industry that powered the nation for several generations. And it could be in a position to do so again.

“Probably the greatest driver of our opportunity in a changed economy from the factory era is this innovation infrastructure where we have 20-plus of the largest research universities on earth,” says John Austin, director of the Michigan Economic Center. “That’s more than any other region. The West Coast has 13. The East Coast has 15. No place in Europe has this concentration of large scale universities that produce thousands upon thousands of STEM, MBAs, engineers and medical talent.”

The Midwest is also home to more than 200 of the nation’s Fortune 500 companies. Austin says America’s Heartland has the horsepower to grow new jobs and industries.

“The Rust Belt can be and is becoming a center of innovation, new business and job creation in all of the arenas that are emerging,” he says. “The emerging sectors, the work of tomorrow, not just the work of the past where we kind of ruled the world and created the great agro-industrial economy that powered America after World War II for several generations.”

Austin says some Rust Belt cities have already turned the corner from being single industry towns to more diverse, economic regions. He cites places like Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Columbus, Ohio, and Minneapolis-St. Paul as examples of metropolitan areas that have built robust economies partially powered by technology and medical innovation.

However, money is key to that transformation and it’s been slow in coming. Rust Belt innovations tend to be commercialized on the East or West Coast. And that’s where most of the Midwest’s investment dollars end up as well.

Half of all investment money comes from the Midwest, but only 5 percent of total venture capital is invested in the Midwest, according to Austin, who says that dynamic must change for the Rust Belt to reach its full potential.

“We are working to create a Midwest/Great Lakes regional fund that would help more of the wealth and investment dollars from the region, and the big dollars on the coast, find good investments and create more jobs and businesses locally,” Austin says.

There is a place for laid-off workers like Julius Wakam in the Midwest’s emerging new economy. In many cases workers go back to school to learn how to program the robots that supplanted them in the factories where they once worked.

“Someone has to program the robots, someone has to maintain and repair the robots,” says James Sawyer, president of Macomb Community College. “So that’s kind of the transformation that’s gone on. The loading jobs no longer exist, but someone, a skilled worker, needs to take care of the robots that replaced that human element.”

The Michigan-based community college offers workforce training programs that can last 12-to-18 weeks.

“The majority of our workforce programs tend to focus in the advance manufacturing arena,” says Sawyer. “So these are things like robotics, control systems, integration of automation, those types of programs have been very popular in the recent past. And that’s very indicative of the transformation currently going on in manufacturing. So we’re supplying the workers to help do that transformation.”

At the time he was laid off, Julius Wakam was already pursuing an engineering degree at the University of Michigan Dearborn. He completed his degree and then signed up for a workforce training program at Macomb Community College to make himself more marketable.

“That is a program that America really, really needs with the robots taking over,” says Wakam.

Although the job search continues, Wakam says he’s gotten more interest from potential employers since completing Macomb’s workforce training program. He plans to keep looking until he lands a job that utilizes his training and skills.

“To get back to where I was before, the kind of money I was making, that’s what I’m talking about,” he says. “It’s been very rough, but I’m a child of hope. I’m never, never, never going to give up hope and I’m going to keep fighting until I get there.”
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Smugglers and other organized criminals are likely to exploit gaps in border enforcement if Britain leaves the European Union without an agreement, a watchdog warned Wednesday, amid a growing chorus of warnings about the disruptive impact of a “no-deal” Brexit.

Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, but London and Brussels have not reached an agreement on divorce terms and a smooth transition to a new relationship. The stalemate has heightened fears that the U.K. might leave without a deal in place, leading to chaos at ports and economic turmoil.

The National Audit Office said in a report that political uncertainty and delays in negotiations with the EU have hampered preparations for new border arrangements, and the government is now racing to bolster computer systems, increase staffing and build new infrastructure to track goods.

The office said that 11 of 12 major projects may not be delivered on time or at “acceptable quality,” with those who rely on the border “paying the price.” It added that “organized criminals and others are likely to be quick to exploit any perceived weaknesses or gaps in the enforcement regime.”

“This, combined with the U.K.’s potential loss of access to EU security, law enforcement and criminal justice tools, could create security weaknesses which the government would need to address urgently,” the office’s report said.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that Transport Secretary Chris Grayling had raised at a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday the idea of chartering ships to bring in food and medicines through alternative ports if new customs checks led to gridlock on the main shipping route between Dover in England and Calais in France.

“We remain confident of reaching an agreement with the EU, but it is only sensible for government and industry to prepare for a range of scenarios,” the Department for Transport said in a statement.

Prime Minister Theresa May said this week that a divorce deal is “95 percent” done, but the two sides still have a “considerable” gap over the issue of the border between the U.K.’s Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland. Britain and the EU agree there must be no barriers that could disrupt businesses and residents on both sides of the border and undermine Northern Ireland’s hard-won peace process. But so far, each side has rejected the other’s solution.

May has attempted to break the impasse by suggesting that a post-Brexit transition period, currently due to end in December 2020, could be extended to give more time for new trade and customs arrangements to be put in place that would eliminate the need for border checks.

EU has said it is open to the proposal, but the idea has infuriated May’s political opponents on both sides of Britain’s Brexit divide.

Pro-Brexit politicians see it as an attempt to bind the country to the bloc indefinitely, while pro-EU politicians say it is a sign of May’s weak bargaining hand and an attempt to stall for time.

On Wednesday, May will try to stem a growing revolt within her Conservative Party over her Brexit blueprint. She’ll address the 1922 Committee, a grouping of backbench Conservative legislators with a key role in deciding who leads the party.

Under Conservative rules, a vote of no-confidence in the leader is triggered if 15 percent of party lawmakers write to the 1922 Committee requesting one. The required number currently stands at 48; only committee chief Graham Brady knows how many have been submitted.

 
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